The New Zealand Breakers Will Be Looking for Karim Lopez to Pickup Where He Left Off

When the New Zealand Breakers closed out the 2024-25 NBL season by only winning one of their last five games and sealing their fate of not qualifying for the play-in tournament, there was little to be optimistic about. The Breakers had started the season strong, with Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Matthew Mooney, and Samuel Mennenga looking like a playoff-worthy trio. They even picked up some blowout victories. If their Next Star prospect, Karim Lopez, could find his rhythm, then maybe there was another level this team could reach.

Unfortunately, that's not quite what happened. Lopez did find his form, and the rest of the Breakers lost their own. Their offense sputtered, their defense lacked intensity, and the spiral never slowed down. They crashed out of the playoff picture, and the only bright spot was Lopez. Lopez found his form as a shooter after recovering from a wrist injury. He went from a player teams left alone on the perimeter to almost needing to be face-guarded.

With three-pointers following, his confidence soared. He looked to attack opponents off the bounce, he cut with more decisiveness, and flat-out dominated transition basketball in some games. In a league like the NBL, taking over transition is reserved for stars. In those final two months, Lopez showed that he might already be one. For the Breakers, if they want to be competing for the play-in next season and maybe more, they'll need Lopez to be a star.

Other leading NBL squads have already loaded up. The Adelaide 36ers brought back Montrezl Harrell and added reigning MVP Bryce Cotton. The Sydney Kings added Matthew Dellavedova. Dash Daniels and Melbourne United are bringing back Chris Goulding and Jack White, and they added Milton Doyle. That's three teams right there with multiple star-level players. For the Breakers to have a shot against that group, they'll be leaning on Lopez.

Over the last eight games of the season, Lopez averaged 13.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and nearly two stocks per game while shooting 42 percent from deep. Few players, if any, had stretches with that level of two-way production during the last NBL season. To do that as a Next Star, who is still over a year away from draft eligibility, is absurd.

If that version of Lopez comes back, we will likely see the ball in his hands much more. Lopez did most of his damage in his rookie NBL season as a play finisher, he was in the 85th percentile of spot-up shooters and 92nd percentile of cutters in the NBL per Synergy Sports. He was right in the middle as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, and on a smaller sample. If the rest of the offense is humming for him next season, he'll be handed more on-ball responsibility. If he thrives with that, he'll see his draft stock benefit.