The One Rotation Change the Heat Needs to Make

THE CHANGE

The most impactful change Miami can make is to bench Andrew Wiggins in favor of promoting Pelle Larsson to the starting lineup.

The defense from Wiggins over the first 9 games has been completely unacceptable. You must be careful with managing team chemistry especially with how you handle veteran players, but he has played 1 half of good, inspired defense and a message must be sent.

Wiggins isn’t the outspoken type, so I don’t believe you risk a distraction or divide in the locker room. The Heat have given up one of the worst 3pt shooting percentages to opponents in the league. He has been a big part of that.

When you look at the Heat lineup combination that has played the most together 103 minutes, they have a defensive net rating of 127.4. That is unacceptable for a team with championship aspirations. The league average is 112 approximately.

The offense has been clunky and disjointed as well. Last season Wiggins was a bright spot to end the year. He was the only one they could turn to down the stretch and he delivered. This year he is averaging his lowest statistics of his career.

He is averaging 8.6 points per game on horrendous efficiency. His shooting splits are 40.8/29.7/66.7 all career lows. He is completely unplayable at this point. Can he turn it around? Sure, he is a professional and never complains. The Heat just can’t afford to wait on the turn around to come.

PELLE LARSSON

The statistics and the eye test tell a completely different story for the Heat with Pelle Larsson in the lineup. He has an outstanding chemistry with Giannis and that cannot be overlooked. He is a smart rugged basketball player on both ends of the floor.

When you substitute Pelle in with the starting lineup for Wiggins. That group has a defensive net rating of 70.7 which not only much better than their team average but the league average.

It is a smaller sample size because the Heat starters have played more minutes together than any group in the league 103. The Pelle sample size is only 26 minutes but that is the second highest on the team.

Larsson is averaging 11.1 points per game on 44.4/40/89.5 shooting splits. He gets to the foul line over 4 times per game. This I believe he could double with more playing time with the starters.

THE DILEMMA

This seems like a no brainer but there are ripple effects, you must consider. What happens to the second unit without their best players?  Who is going to handle the ball or create offense?

These are all valid and real concerns that can’t be an afterthought. The solution should be to play rookie Ryan Conwell more.

The second-round pick from Louisville got an extended look last game. He played 30 minutes scored 13 points on 44.4/50/ shooting splits. He chipped in 1 rebound, 2 assists and 3 steals.

The biggest thing for me is he looked surer of where he was going and what he was doing on the offensive end. The second unit is going to need that. He also was a dogged defender and gave extra effort. That will keep him on the floor.

His specialty is shooting. He averaged 7 attempts from deep for his college career. He’s only attempting 2 per game in the NBA. The more playing time he gets, he will figure out where to get his shots from. The time for Conwell is now.

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