
The Houston Rockets have been going through a rough week, with two road blowout losses to contending teams that got ugly in the second half. The Rockets are still right in the heart of the Western Conference in fourth, but any extended losing stretch and Houston would fall quite a bit in the standings.
The Rockets have to get out of this stretch and put the two embarrassing losses to the Spurs and Nuggets behind them quickly. The team needs a bounce-back shooting-wise after one of the worst performances in franchise history at Denver on Wednesday night.
A point of heavy debate has been the starting lineup and how Rockets head coach Ime Udoka distributes the minutes. Besides Reed Sheppard, the Rockets don’t really use their bench in high capacity.
However, it seems like it might be, in fact, underused. The Rockets need to be willing to make changes or try something different knowing the results are not really changing against the best teams.
There is this statistic about the Rockets lineup that is surprising, but to the Houston faithful that watch closely, it might not be. Either way, it deserves attention.
There was a lot of discourse among Rockets fans after the poor loss at San Antonio to the Spurs on what happened. It was pointed out that there was a massive difference between the lineups that had Sheppard and Alperen Şengün vs Sheppard and Clint Capela.
There was a 30-point swing between Sheppard-Sengun lineups (-20) and Sheppard-Capela (+10) yesterday in San Antonio.
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) March 9, 2026
The difference in defensive rating was more than 100 points. For the season, it's 13.5. pic.twitter.com/bBsKd1qQlb
A closer look at the ratings on both sides of the ball is surprising. Sengun definitely struggled in the Spurs game, notably on defense. Capela’s role on the team has significantly increased since the injury to Steven Adams as the second big man on the team, and he’s been solid in replacement.
Based on his numbers with Sheppard, he’s doing better than average. While the offensive rating with Sengun and Sheppard in the lineup was four points better, the defensive rating difference was out of this world at over 103 points worse. Capela is obviously a much better defender than Sengun given his experience and build as a player, but the difference is still eye-catching.
A look at the season overall gives numbers where something has to change in regards to Capela playing more minutes alongside Sheppard. The offensive rating is very slightly better with Capela at 0.1 points. The defensive rating difference is clear as day and night.
The Rockets are almost 14 points better on defense when Capela is out there with the same offensive production. The net rating difference of 13 compared to -0.4 is huge and needs to be taken into consideration.
When Sheppard is on the floor, and that has increased significantly even though he isn’t in the starting lineup, Capela has to play most of the time. His defense is strong and his presence in the pick and roll is much more effective. Simply said, Sheppard works much better with a traditional big like Capela and there are massive benefits on both sides to increase the minutes of this specific lineup.
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