Thunder back in Vegas: 3 Keys to Redemption

The last time the Thunder were on the court in Vegas, they were humiliated in the NBA Cup championship by the Milwaukee Bucks — putting up a season-low 81 points in a blowout loss.

Now, the Oklahoma City Thunder find themselves back in Vegas and an opportunity for redemption, and to complete their redemption tour. Here are the Thunder’s three keys to winning the NBA Cup.

OKC’s Path to Winning the NBA Cup

Leveraging their Defense: By Winning the Turnover Battle + Controlling the Pace

The Thunder are on track to have a historic defense in back-to-back seasons, which has been the primary catalyst for their historic success. Turning the opposing team over and converting off turnovers has been a major recipe for success, as the Thunder are forcing the most turnovers in the league at 17.9 per game. The Thunder is generating 20% percent of its points off turnovers. The Thunder are also doing a good job of taking care of the ball as they’re 2nd in turnovers at 12.7 per game.

The Thunder has won the turnover battle in 21 out of 25 games thus far. When winning the turnover battle this season, the Thunder are 20-1.

Dictating the tempo and pace through their defense will be a focal point for the Thunder in establishing an advantage.

Shooting Variance

The Thunder bread and butter is creating paint touches. Due to the amount of rim pressure their top guy generates, the Thunder creates a lot of quality shots from deep. Twenty-five games into the season, the Thunder are third in field-goal percentage at 50.1% and all the way to 5th in three-point percentage at 38.1% — a significant step-up from this time a season ago. Resulting in the Thunder ranking fifth in offensive rating during the first 25 games of the season.

Meanwhile, the Thunder are first in opponent field goal percentage at 42.7% but only 20th in opponent three-point percentage at 36.8%, a pretty significant drop-off from a season ago.

However, expect their next NBA Cup opponent — the Spurs to pack the paint, zone up, and force the Thunder to knock down shots at a consistent rate.

The Thunder’s overall success will depend on how much key role players — Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort, Jaylin Williams, and Kenrich Williams — take advantage of the quality opportunities they have.

If the Thunder can take advantage of opportunities and knock down open shots at a consistent rate while limiting opponents at the three-point line, they will be successful. In which they struggled last year, as they shot 65/166 (39%) from the floor and 16/62 (26%) from three in two games in Vegas, and didn’t contain the three-ball in the Cup Championship against the Milwaukee Bucks, as they shot 17/40 (42%) from three. Then the Thunder will be in good shape.

The Big Three Establishing Themselves

The Thunder are the deepest team in the NBA, but their squad goes as their big three does. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, continues to be the staple and model of consistency and has once again taken another leap in his game. SGA is currently averaging 32.6 points, 6.5 assists to only 1.8 turnovers, and 2.2 stocks, on 56/45/88 shooting splits.

However, as both Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are in the early stages of their careers, consistency is a work in progress for the young duo.

Their offensive inconsistency results in the Thunder’s struggles, and vice versa, as the Thunder are essentially unbeatable whenever Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren perform.

Williams, who recently made his season debut (wrist surgery), is working to regain his rhythm and pace. In the five games since returning from injury, Williams is averaging 17.3 points, 6.2 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 stocks, on 47/28/100 shooting splits.

Holmgren has taken advantage of being the secondary option during Williams’ absence, elevated his play, and is in the midst of an offensive breakout. He’s putting up career numbers in points, rebounds, and efficiency, as Holmgren is currently averaging 18.8 points, eight rebounds, and 1.5 blocks, on 58/39/78 shooting splits.

The Thunder will need them to perform in the NBA Cup if they want to avenge themselves.