Of all the positions a young NBA player can find himself in, contract-wise, restricted free agency is probably the worst. And as we stand with the end of July coming soon, four players are providing good examples of just why that is.
Jonathan Kuminga can't get a new deal with the Warriors.
Josh Giddey can't get a new deal with the Bulls.
Quentin Grimes can't get a new deal with the Sixers.
Cam Thomas can't get a new deal with the Nets.
The reason? Restricted free agency is the one spot in player-team relations in which the player has virtually no power. Teams have all the leverage, because they own the rights to the player and can match any offers.
Years ago, when every summer saw multiple teams operating with significant swaths of cap space available, restricted free agency was less of a problem, because there would be teams who could offer deals to the RFAs, even if they knew the current team would match. That could be done as a favor to the player's agent, or as a way to force an opponent into a more expensive contract.
Now? Well, no one has cap space. That's not how teams operate anymore. Restricted free agency was built for a system that no longer exists in the NBA.
"It's the worst spot you can be in because you're relying on the generosity of the team," one prominent NBA agent said. "For the player, it is brutal because it can drag out way into the summer when no one has money to spend, and there is just nothing you can do until the decides to step up make a fair offer. It's brutal on these young players who are expecting to have this big payday."
The only leverage a player has is the qualifying offer--they can sign the QO, which is most often a low-ball, one-year add-on to the player's rookie contract. Signing that makes the player an unrestricted free agent the following summer, and puts the team at risk of losing him without any return via trade.
Kuminga's QO is $8 million for 2025-26. Giddey's is $11 million, Grimes's is $8.5 million and Thomas's is $6 million. These are all players hoping to sign deals worth $20-30 million per year.
Something is likely to get done with Kuminga and Giddey. Grimes and Thomas, though, could well wind up with the QO and free agency. "It's a tough situation for a player, it's something that has not gotten enough attention in the CBA, I think," the agent said.
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