What to Expect From Keaton Wagler's Rookie Season

Keaton Wagler's Rookie Season May Not Look Pretty, but Patience Will Be Key

If this is all we see from Wagler this summer, what does it say about his upcoming rookie campaign? Where should the fans set the expectations?

Wagler doesn't turn 20 until the midway point of his rookie season. He is very young for an on-ball creator. Since he also doesn't have elite athletic or physical tools, it may take him longer to adjust to the NBA than most offensive engines. Point guards' games take a while to translate to the NBA to begin with.

Plus, Wagler's frame is still filling out. He has added 20 pounds since he started his freshman season in Illinois. His need to get stronger is obvious, so this will be a top priority during his rookie campaign. As his body is changing, there may be growing pains in his first year in LA.

This may result in more off-ball reps for Wagler early in the season. Playing next to Darius Garland will benefit the rookie as he will get more open looks and have the chance to attack on the weakside or take advantage of closeouts.

Wagler's one-on-one creation didn't look NBA-ready during the Summer League, so having Garland initiate the offense and keeping Wagler as a secondary or tertiary creator makes sense.

The good thing is that Wagler's shot looks NBA-ready. He should be a threat from outside right away, which will help open things up. Playing next to shooters like Garland, Brandon Ingram, Rui Hachimura, and Brook Lopez will allow Wagler to have more space to operate as well.

Wagler is a crafty, methodical player. He does his damage with his footwork, handles, and court vision. These types of players may not pop immediately and may need some time to fully come into their own.

That is what happened with Wagler in Illinois. He got off to a slow start. In his first nine games before conference play started, Wagler averaged 13.8 points and 2.3 assists in 29.6 minutes per game, shooting 42.2% from the field and 34.1% from three.

After December 9, when conference games began, Wagler averaged 19.3 points and 4.9 assists, hitting 45% from the field and 41% from three. He quickly became one of the top offensive creators in college basketball, leading his team to the Final Four.

We could see a similar trend in the NBA. Wagler will likely struggle early on. It may be wise for Ty Lue to bring him off the bench and start Kris Dunn instead. This would allow Wagler to go up against inferior bench units. Once Wagler adapts to the NBA, he could take over the starting backcourt spot next to Garland.

Overall, Wagler will be an inefficient scorer as a rookie. He may struggle to create his own shot or get to the free-throw line. Defensively, he plays with a lot of effort and discipline and has the size to hold his own, but there will be a lot of matchups where he gets physically and athletically overwhelmed.

Whether he will be a positive player as a rookie will depend on whether his jump shot is falling. The more threes he is hitting, the more opportunities he will get, but the Clippers have to be patient with him. His rookie season may not look pretty for a high lottery pick, but the fans must keep the future rather than the present in mind.