When Onyeka Okongwu Sits, The Atlanta Hawks Have A Center Problem

When the Hawks promoted Onyeka Okongwu to the starting lineup in January, they did so in hopes that he would stake his claim to the starting center job over Clint Capela. He did exactly that. Even when considering that he wasn't a full-time starter for the first half of the year, Okongwu is averaging 13.0 points and 8.6 rebounds to go with 2.3 assists on 57.7/32.7/74.6% shooting splits. His FG% is the ninth-best in the NBA this season and he's been a very solid defender at the 5. However, the advanced numbers indicate how integral he is to Atlanta's success.

For example, the four-man lineup of Young, Daniels, Okongwu, and Niang has an excellent net rating of 22.9 in 119 minutes. Removing Okongwu drops that net rating to -2.4. In a more commonly used four-man lineup of Young, Daniels, Okongwu, and Risacher, they have a net rating of 3.2. That rating drops to -3.5 when Okongwu sits. To encapsulate this broadly, the Hawks have an on-off swing of 5.0 points when Okongwu is on.

The 24-year-old big man's success isn't just a function of always playing with the starting lineup. The two-man combination of Okongwu and Caris LeVert has a +8.8 rating, and the five-man lineup of Young, Daniels, LeVert, Niang, and Okongwu has a net rating of +16.1. Essentially, Okongwu's presence in the lineup is helpful for both Atlanta's offense and defense. It's a large reason why his box plus-minus of 1.9 this season is a career high. That mark exceeds centers like Naz Reid, Myles Turner, and Nic Claxton.

When he sits, it's expected that either Clint Capela or Larry Nance Jr would sub in for him. Capela has had a down season, but he's still a solid rebounder and roll man for Trae Young while offering some rim protection. However, he's currently sidelined with a left hand injury that will keep him out for the rest of the regular season. Nance is dealing with a right knee injury that will keep him out for the rest of the regular season. Therefore, the Hawks will be without their second and third-string center options until their first play-in game at best.

Dominick Barlow has stepped in to fill the backup center role for Atlanta, but it's been a trial by fire for the young big man. Barlow does have intriguing tools - when he was a Spur, he recorded 21 points and 19 rebounds against the Dallas Mavericks in the final game of the year. With one more rebound, he would have been the youngest NBA player to ever record a 20-20 statline. However, in the 196 minutes he's played as a Hawk, he has a net rating of -3.2. Barlow has recorded a career-high block percentage of 5.0%, but he still has a box plus-minus of -1.2. He has an on-off swing of -4.1 and doesn't provide enough defense to make up for it. Again, Barlow is a very young player, and I expect him to develop into a solid backup center. He is not that right now, and that's a notable problem for Atlanta.

Mo Gueye is another option for the backup center role and the numbers would indicate he's a better option there for 2024-25. Gueye's offense is extremely inconsistent - he can occasionally hit a three and serve as a rim-runner, but it's hard to rely on him as a scorer with any sort of regularity. His value lies in his defense. He's a surprisingly decent defender on the perimeter and can switch, allowing him to block shots on occasion. His block percentage of 6.2% is impressive for someone still coming along as a center. However, he's a long way from being anything close to a reliable rim protector. It is true that the Hawks are a +6.0 from an on-off perspective in his minutes, but that could be a case of his defensive playmaking boosting his numbers in a small sample size.

Games slow down in the possession and there's more of an emphasis on second-chance points, as well as scoring in the paint. It's good that Atlanta has a center who can give them both in Okongwu, but there's no denying that he's going to be taking on a strenuous load over the next 11 games. If the Hawks are able to secure either the 7th or 8th seed with games to go, it may be worth giving their starting center a rest due to not having a reliable backup on the roster.

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