Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray and center Nikola Jokic and forward Aaron Gordon. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Why Nuggets have overwhelming edge in NBA Finals

By Ethan Scott | Last updated May 31, 2023 6:23 PM ET

Whether the Denver Nuggets drew the Miami Heat or Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals, they were going to have a huge advantage. Their unwavering excellence throughout the playoffs has unquestionably established them as the league's best team.

With All-NBA-caliber players Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, complemented by a formidable ensemble of role players, Denver presents a huge challenge for any opponent. Following a 53-29 regular season, the Nuggets are 12-3 in the playoffs.

The Joker, a two-time MVP, and Murray are putting up ridiculous numbers in the postseason.

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The Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets will officially meet for the NBA finals this week. How will this series play out? OddsChecker's Matt McCuen provides a few picks that you should lock in before the series starts.

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Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Miami Heat: +9 (-110) spread, +310 moneyline, over 219.5 (-106)
@ Denver Nuggets: -9 (+105) spread, -360 moneyline, under 219.5 (-110)

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Jokic is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists and shooting 53.8 percent from the field and 47.4 percent from three. Murray is averaging 27.7 points, 6.1 assists and 5.5 rebounds on a shooting split of 48/39.8/92.5.

Besides the two superstars, Denver has two other major advantages over Miami: fresh legs and home court. The Nuggets last played on May 22.

Had the Heat — who once owned a 3-0 edge on Boston — dispatched the Celtics earlier in the Eastern Conference Finals instead of in seven games, Miami could have enjoyed a similarly long rest.

Historically, Denver has played much better in the higher altitude (5,280 feet) of Mile High City than on the road.

Per ESPN's Ohm Youngmisuk, "Denver not only owns the most suffocating home-court advantage in the NBA, but no active franchise in history has had more success at home compared to on the road. The altitude isn't a myth."

After the Heat step off the bus, they’ll see and hear “5280” often and be warned about “hypoxia with symptoms of fatigue, difficulty breathing, rapid heart rate, headaches and confusion.” Nuggets hope Miami will feel the altitude physically and mentallyhttps://t.co/4Bt69JoAwS pic.twitter.com/qlYCm7pZCX
— Ohm Youngmisuk (@NotoriousOHM) May 31, 2023

"Yeah, it's real," Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James said of the altitude in Denver, per ESPN. "You get tired a lot faster."

ESPN Analytics gives the Nuggets an 89 percent chance to win their first NBA championship. FiveThirtyEight also gives Denver an analytical edge at 73 percent.

Former NBA player Richard Jefferson has no doubt who will be holding the championship trophy in June.

.@Rjeff24 says the Nuggets will win the NBA Finals no matter their opponent:

"Denver is by far the best, most consistent, and have the most dominant player, maybe in the league, but definitely the most dominant player left in this playoffs." pic.twitter.com/UhbO0ilrbs
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) May 29, 2023

Besides The Joker, the Nuggets have a much better roster than the Heat, who entered the playoffs through the back door of the play-in tournament.

Expect a quick series. Nuggets in five.

Ethan Scott

Ethan Scott is a lifelong NBA fanatic. Born and raised in Los Angeles, he is a junior at New York University. Scott has admired Stephen Curry since his March Madness run at Davidson College. Scott hasn't missed a Warriors game in years.

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