Why the Knicks’ playoff rotation must include Jose Alvarado

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks play on Thursday night. As for Jose Alvarado, well, when he’ll play has become more of a question mark. 

The once promising midseason addition for Mike Brown and company has lost his playing time down the stretch.

Alvarado received his first DNP-Coach’s Decision in the Knicks’ win over the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday.

And in the game prior, a win over the Chicago Bulls, he didn’t play until the fourth quarter, when New York was comfortably ahead. Why?

Let’s get our answer straight from the source. Here’s coach Brown talking about his Knicks rotation after the win over the Bulls:

“A part of it is we haven’t had a lot of healthy guards,” Brown told reporters on April 3. “Jose stepped in and did a nice job. Deuce is getting healthier, Landry is getting healthy, and trying to find minutes for both of those guys. Because both of those guys are capable of playing that spot, it’s going to be a priority for me because they’ve proven themselves this year for us.”

What’s the argument for Alvarado, Miles McBride, and Landry Shamet being unable to play together? New York is adept at deploying lineups to mask its defensive shortcomings, no pun intended.

It seems that New York’s trade deadline acquisition has been placed in a glass case and labeled “for emergencies only.”

To play devil’s advocate before I argue Alvarado’s case, his individual play has only declined since he arrived at the deadline.

Alvarado’s been in a slump

Gone are the days of the guard hitting eight threes in a night, as he did just days after joining the team against the 76ers.

After bursting onto the New York scene, Alvarado’s outlier skill, his shooting, fell into a spiral. And it’s not because he wasn’t being told to shoot.

Alvarado went from literally firing on all cylinders to only firing when forced. The numbers are a roller coaster.

• First 10 games: 15-of-49 from downtown (1.5 3PM/4.9 3PA)
• Next 10 games: 6-of-20 from downtown (0.6 3PM/2.0 3PA)
• Following six games: 5-of-13 from downtown (0.8 3PM/2.2 3PA)

Shooting was always going to be the barrier between Alvarado and Brown. No one on the Knicks was unaware of his career .348 shooting clip from deep.

But as his confidence wavered, so did his standing in the rotation.

Is this the right move? I’m wagering that it’s more likely Alvarado rejoins the rotation in the playoffs, for a multitude of reasons.

Alvarado has value outside of shooting

Alvarado was brought to New York to help stabilize the team’s second unit and run the offense when Brunson is off the floor.

Even if his version of running the offense is funneling the ball to Karl-Anthony Towns, that opens things up for the Knicks. But more on that later.

He did that. Some numbers according to Pivot Fade:

• Prior to the trade deadline, the Knicks had a 4.4 net rating with the captain riding the pine, and were a +40 in 890 minutes.

• In the 27 games since, with Alvarado on in Brunson’s stead, that number is nearly tripled at 13.6, and the team is +77 in those 310 minutes.

And even with both of them on the court, New York has a 15.4 net rating and is a +36 in 112 minutes. All the numbers say Alvarado has made the Knicks better.

But particularly when Brunson is off the floor. Which brings me to my next point.

New York needs Karl-Anthony Towns’ best ball

I’ve already written the essay on Towns’ brilliance and importance to New York.

You can read that here. To summarize it, though — and I’m not reinventing the wheel here–the Knicks are the most dangerous when Towns is engaged.

And with the playoffs around the corner, it’s fair to ask what the best version of Towns looks like. For your consideration, his numbers when sharing the floor with Alvarado:

• 28 points, 17.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per 75 possessions. This is a 24-game sample size, consisting of 251 minutes they’ve played together.

New York as a team is +86 in those minutes with an 18.1 net rating. They’re 15-9 in the 24 games the two have played together.

That’s with Brunson on the bench. Now let’s switch the two guards:

• 21.8 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per 75 possessions. That’s over 1,358 minutes and 66 games played.

For the Knicks, the results of Brunson and Towns playing together have been middling: +168 with a 4.3 net rating.

Alvarado’s point guard play is mostly finding the big man in advantageous situations.

There is some redundancy to it, because it’s less about the five on the floor and more about the two-man game. But shouldn’t that be enough to earn some minutes?

Perhaps it’s matchup dependent.

In a potential playoff series against teams like the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, and Philadelphia 76ers, New York can play smaller, and there’s less risk to someone like Alvarado being played off the floor.

It’s worth noting that, according to Pivot Fade, the Knicks won minutes where the guard was on the floor against Boston (+13) and Toronto (+19).

His appearance against Philadelphia came against a 76ers team down Joel Embiid and Paul George. So the sample there (+35 in 18 minutes) shouldn’t be taken for gold.

New York wanted Alvarado, right?

Beyond the product on the hardwood, there’s also the optics of not playing a guy you traded for at the deadline, in a title-contending year, no less.

Alvarado has a $4.5 million player option for next season.

So there are two sides to this coin:

• If the Knicks refuse to play Alvarado down the stretch because he isn’t a fit, he could end up exercising the option and staying in New York. This would give the team a tradeable salary, but would also add more guaranteed money to an already expensive payroll.
• If New York does play Alvarado in the playoffs and he shines, he opts out of the contract, when he could do one of two things — extend on a team-friendly deal, or sign elsewhere, meaning two second-round picks were dealt for next to nothing.

Look, this is a business at the end of the day, and all parties are aware of that. But the Knicks traded for Alvarado, who’s shown intermittent promise across a multitude of good wins this season.

The playoffs aren’t the time to shrink the ceiling of your team. And for all his warts, Alvarado brings a skillset that’s damn near a luxury in the postseason.

I expect we’ll all be reminded of this when it matters most.