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Why the Milwaukee Bucks Have 3 of the Worst Value Free Agent Contracts This Offseason
Milwaukee Bucks Make Wild Splash Out of Nowhere, Add Top Free Agent Big for 4 Years, $107 Million 1 May 11, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) dribbles the ball while Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley (4) defends during game four of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Bucks have had a busy summer of re-signing several key players and also adding a big name in Myles Turner. In addition to bringing back Bobby Portis, the team also re-signed multiple other key players for the upcoming campaign. With a total of $219 million being dolled out, several of Milwaukee’s deals are being seen as unfavorable by analytics.


Why the Milwaukee Bucks Have 3 of the Worst Value Free Agent Contracts This Offseason 1 Feb 5, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Bobby Portis (9) pivots with the ball against Charlotte Hornets guard Nick Smith Jr. (8) during the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Understanding Milwaukee Bucks’ Free Agent Deals

Here’s a quick recap of all of Milwaukee’s moves this offseason. AAV stands for Average Annual Value.

  • Myles Turner – 4 years, $107 million ($26.8 AAV)
  • Bobby Portis – 3 years, $44 million ($14.7 AAV)
  • Kevin Porter Jr. – 2 years, $11 million ($5.5 AAV)
  • Ryan Rollins – 3 years, $12 million ($4 AAV)
  • Gary Trent Jr. – 2 years, $7.5 million (3.8 AAV)
  • Gary Harris – 2 years, $7.4 million (3.7 AAV)
  • Taurean Prince – 2 years, $7.1 million ($3.6 AAV)
  • Jericho Sims – 2 years, $5.2 million ($2.6 AAV)

Outside of Turner and Harris, these are all Milwaukee players being brought back to the team. In addition to Damian Lillard’s release, the Bucks are losing Brook Lopez to the Los Angeles Clippers.


Milwaukee Bucks Make Wild Splash Out of Nowhere, Add Top Free Agent Big for 4 Years, $107 Million 1 May 11, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) dribbles the ball while Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley (4) defends during game four of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

One way to assess a team’s free agency performance is to calculate how valuable each player’s worth is and compare it to the amount of money being owed to them. A player’s value can be calculated via the Estimated Wins (EW) metric, which can be compared to the “cost” of a win in the NBA (which is about $3.8 million).

NBA analyst Mat Issa has done exactly this to determine what the worst free agent contracts are, weighing a player’s worth in EW and comparing it to the value of their contract. In many cases, it does not match. In Milwaukee’s case, three of their free agent deals stack up as some of the worst in the league.


Milwaukee Bucks Now Has 6 Players With Guaranteed Contracts But Already Exceeded Salary Cap And That's Worrisome 1 Jan 8, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Bobby Portis (9) looks on during the third quarter against the San Antonio Spurs at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

According to Analytics, the Milwaukee Bucks Have Dramatically Overpaid 3 Key Players

This analytical methodology has not taken kindly to Milwaukee’s two biggest deals so far. The Myles Turner deal is currently assessed as one of the top 5 worst deals in the league this summer. Additionally, the Jericho Sims and Bobby Portis deals both crack the top 10 for worst pieces of business so far.

As shown in the table, both Turner and Portis are being overvalued by their current deals by about 25%. Milwaukee is paying both players a total of about $40 million AAV despite the two combining for just $31.4 million in estimated value.


Milwaukee Bucks Big Man Could Be Unexpected No. 2 Scoring Option Next Season 2 Mar 22, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Bobby Portis (9) reacts after scoring a basket during the first quarter against the San Antonio Spurs at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Sims deal, while much smaller, is the worst of the bunch according to the analytical assessment. Sims actually has a negative production value, meaning that any deal is going to theoretically hurt the team.

The elephant in the room for this kind of assessment is the nearly $25 million Milwaukee is paying Damian Lillard despite him not being on the roster. That figure essentially counts on Turner, as Lillard was released to allow the team to sign the former Indiana Pacers big man. All in all, it just means that Turner needs to play extremely well for the Bucks for him to be worth the money.


Why the Milwaukee Bucks Have 3 of the Worst Value Free Agent Contracts This Offseason 5 May 27, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner (33) attempts to shoot the ball during the second quarter during game four of the eastern conference finals for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

As acknowledged in the article, one flaw in the EW calculation is it punishes players who are coming off of injuries (or in the case of Portis, a 25-game suspension). Portis’ value is dramatically hurt by these missed games where he was unable to contribute to the team. If Portis can play a lot more than 50 games next season, his value would likely be adjudged to be about fair.

It is important to not use such analytics as be-all, end-all of understanding NBA free agent decisions. But it is an interesting perspective on what Milwaukee is paying for, and if it is the best use of their financial assets. Improving the team is the goal, and players like Turner and Portis will need to take steps up this season to help ensure the Bucks can comfortably make the playoffs and hopefully, advance out of the first round this time.


Why the Milwaukee Bucks Have 3 of the Worst Value Free Agent Contracts This Offseason 6 Mar 5, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks center Jericho Sims (00) dunks a basket against Dallas Mavericks guard Brandon Williams (10) and center Dwight Powell (7) in the second quarter at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

This article first appeared on WI Sports Heroics and was syndicated with permission.

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