Will Andrew Nembhard lead Pacers to NBA title?

It feels like everything that has led to this moment between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder all matters at once. And at the same time, none of it feels important at all. Because after 2,460 regular season and 83 postseason games later, the 2024-25 NBA season has come down to one 48-minute (or one 53-minute if we're lucky) contest to determine which team will be crowned a champion.

"You kind of have to take the emotions out of it," Holmgren said on Saturday. "Even though it's everything you dreamed of, you just have to try and do what you can to continue to prepare how you've prepared all year: To put yourself in the best chance to win each game."

Here's how Holmgren and the Thunder can put themselves in the best position to win Sunday night, as well as the keys to victory for Nembhard and the Pacers.

Keys to victory for Holmgren & OKC

Share the rock

The Thunder averaged 26.9 assists during the regular season. Through six Finals games, they've dished out 20 or more assists twice — 25 in their Game 2 victory and 24 in a Game 5 win — but overall haven't looked as sharp on the offensive end of the floor when the ball isn't in Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams' hands.

"We have to improve on both ends of the floor if we want to win tomorrow," Gilgeous-Alexander said. "We obviously have to get better offensively — last game was clearly not good enough and not gonna cut it and we know it.

Credit to Indiana's relentless defense for limiting how effective Gilgeous-Alexander's teammates have been up to this point. The reigning MVP averaged 3.0 assists in OKC's three Finals losses, compared to 6.0 assists in the team's three victories. OKC will need its role players to step up and provide its superstar a lift offensively, or the Pacers will continue to key in on Gilgeous-Alexander like they did in Game 6.

Take and make open 3s

OKC has been a better shooting team at home than on the road during these Finals, though it hasn't gotten much outside shooting from its 7-footer lately. In fact, Holmgren has knocked down just 2-of-17 from downtown — on track to be by far his worst showing from 3-point land in a single playoff series — and is shooting just 35.3% from the field overall on 11.3 field goal attempts per game in the Finals.

The beauty of Holmgren's game is that he can impact winning in a multitude of ways. He's been critical to OKC's defensive game plan and can swing momentum with one coast-to-cast fastbreak off a deflection or block. His inefficiencies from the floor, however, have put more pressure on Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams to deliver offensively.

If Holmgren can get himself going early on like he's been able to a few times this series, and is able to maintain that productivity throughout the first and second half, OKC will be in good shape in Game 7.

Capitalize off turnovers

Turnovers and pace have been at the forefront of this championship series, and it appears the home team has been able to protect the ball more effectively than the road team. That should bode well for OKC heading into Game 7, though only if the Thunder are able to capitalize on their extra opportunities with baskets and not empty trips down the floor.

Empty possessions were partly to blame for OKC's late collapse in Game 1, in which the Pacers stole a victory from the jaws of defeat despite committing 25 turnovers in the process. Their carelessness with the rock didn't wind up mattering, though, because the Thunder shot below 40% from the field and failed to put the game out of reach when they had the chance.

Keys to victory for Nembhard & Indiana

Momentum-stopping plays

Only four teams have ever won an NBA Finals Game 7 away from home before. If Indiana's to become the fifth team to pull off such a feat, it'll have to tame perhaps the most raucous crowd the Thunder have ever welcomed to the Paycom Center.

"When you know you’re on your home floor and you make a tough shot, have an alley oop dunk or make a highlight play of some sort that gets the crowd involved — that’s momentum that goes your way," Haliburton said. "I feel like we have that advantage with our home court as well in Indy; they have that here as well so, you gotta be able to weather the storm with those momentum-swinging plays."

The Pacers have proven they can wait out just about any storm that comes their way during these playoffs, with multiple double-digit comebacks and last-second heroics from Haliburton to show for their resiliency. Even if OKC is able to ride the energy of its home crowd toward a big lead early in the first half, expect Indiana to have a counterpunch waiting for the second half.

Value each possession

The Pacers are as hard of a team to stop as any when their offense gets rolling behind Haliburton and his playmaking prowess. They're especially dangerous in transition, given they have a handful of guards and wings who can lead a fastbreak.

When Indiana isn't able to get out and run like it wants to, though, its half-court offense has looked much less effective against OKC. Outside of Pascal Siakam, the Pacers haven't been able to get to the rim with much consistency when the Thunder's defense is set. Turnovers have been an issue as well.

“I think the controllables are the most important thing here," Haliburton said. "Taking care of the ball, rebounding, playing with the right energy."

Continue hounding Gilgeous-Alexander

Life for Gilgeous-Alexander has been anything but a cakewalk with Nembhard and the Pacers around. The Thunder guard is still averaging 30.5 points these Finals, though he is also committing 3.8 turnovers per game while shooting 28.6% from long range.

"He's a guy who's been one of my toughest guards in the league," Nembhard said of Gilgeous-Alexander. "I'm really excited about those competitive matchups, you know? And these are the times we get to show those types of things. It's fun for me."

Nembhard's been throwing everything he has in his defensive arsenal at Gilgeous-Alexander. From hand jabs and jersey tugs 94 feet away from the hoop, to slight body checks upon making contact in the paint and midrange areas, the Team Canada teammates have been going at it like they're kids again, competing for an AAU championship instead of an NBA title.

It's certainly been a team effort in trying to slow down the league's reigning MVP, as Indiana has swarmed ball-screens with two defenders whenever Gilgeous-Alexander is at the point of attack. Nembhard's familiarity with his opponent has certainly been an advantage as well, and his toughness has helped put the Pacers in a position to claim the franchise's first NBA championship with one more outstanding defensive performance against Gilgeous-Alexander.

"I’ve known how good of a player he was and defender he was playing with him for all these years. Tomorrow should be even more fun for sure."

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