2024 Presidential Election Odds, Projections 6 Weeks Before Election Day

The 2024 United States presidential election is just 42 days away. And with six weeks remaining until November 5, the election odds are on the move once again.

Vice President Kamala Harris (-120) remains the betting favorite over former President Donald Trump (+100), as she has been since the first debate between the two candidates, but her chances to win the election got slightly worse this week.

Let's dive into all that and more in the latest, updated presidential election odds after the latest polls.

United States Presidential Election Odds

Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.

The biggest topic of discussion in politics so far this week (well, besides that other one involving Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but that's none of my business…) is the New York Times/Siena College polls released early Monday morning, showing former President Donald Trump leading in several key battleground states.

More importantly, it was one of the strongest polls for Trump since his debate with Harris a little less than two weeks ago.

Speaking of debates, Vice President Harris has accepted an invitation to a second debate against former President Trump for October 23. However, Trump reportedly has not accepted, as he said on social media over the weekend that it is "too late" to have another debate.

But that's a conversation for next month. Let's talk about those polls for a second.

Election Predictions: Polls Show Trump Leading in Key States

According to the Times/Siena polls, Trump leads Harris by five points in Arizona (50% to 45%), four points in Georgia (49% to 45%) and three points in North Carolina (49% to 46%).

The Times also reported on the broader polling averages in those three states as of Monday, in which Trump's advantage is 2% in Arizona and 2% in Georgia, while the two candidates are even in North Carolina.

What's most interesting here is how those state-by-state polling averages in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have changed from August, before the first Harris vs. Trump debate.

In each case, Trump is now performing better than he was before a debate that pundits and voters alike overwhelmingly believe that he lost.

In Arizona, he's gone from a less than 1% lead to 2%. In Georgia, it's the same — Trump ahead by less than 1% before the debate and now up by 2%. In North Carolina, Harris was ahead by 1% in August, and polling averages now have that state as a toss-up.

Yet Harris remains the betting favorite. And the electoral college math might help explain why.