2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds, Predictions: Harris, Trump Neck and Neck Entering Election Day Tuesday

Key Election Takeaways

• Donald Trump currently leads U.S. presidential election predictions with a 57.98% chance of winning the 2024 election, while Kamala Harris stands at 42.02%, as we enter election day on Tuesday.
• Those chances to win are based on election odds of -150 for Trump and +130 for Harris.
• The odds for both Trump and Harris have swung around a lot lately. Trump’s chances were slightly below 60% just eight days ago but around 65% three days ago. However, …
• The Des Moines Register/Selzer poll dropped on Saturday night. It has Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa, which helped Harris’ odds tighten the gap on Sunday.
• Additionally, Marist College’s final polls showed Harris leading in key swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This runs contrary to several other polls.
• In individual state markets, Harris is now favored to win two of the above three states. She was briefly favored in all three, but moved back to a very slight underdog in Pennsylvania.
• However, the Harris surge stabilized shortly thereafter and Trump is now a stronger favorite than he had been over the last 48 hours of the race.

Trump’s Betting Odds

Donald Trump stands as the betting favorite in the 2024 presidential election at odds of -150, translating to a 57.98% chance of victory. A couple of days prior marked the highest Trump’s chances had been since Joe Biden exited the race, a time when Trump’s odds were even stronger at -225 but came down from Wednesday’s new peak of -200.

Trump’s betting odds reached their peak following an assassination attempt in July, with his odds soaring to -400.

Harris’ Betting Odds

Kamala Harris has odds of +130, giving her a 42.02% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. This is a significant jump for Harris, who was +150 (38.26%) four days ago. However, she climbed as high as +110 on Monday.

Her journey in the betting markets has been a rollercoaster. Harris first became a betting favorite over Trump shortly after replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in early August. Trump reclaimed the lead two weeks later. Harris surpassed him once again during the Harris vs. Trump presidential debate in September, but Trump once again became the betting favorite in the second week of October. Since then, Trump’s odds have only gotten better but have recently plateaued.

Harris received a bump following favorable results from several reputable polls:

• Marist: Wisconsin (Harris +2), Pennsylvania (Harris +2), Michigan (Harris +2)
• Marquette: Wisconsin (Harris +1)
• Selzer: Iowa (Harris +3)

National Polling Averages

National polling averages serve as a crucial barometer for gauging the potential outcome of the presidential election. Recent national averages indicate that Trump is leading Harris by approximately seven percentage points at 53% to 46%, suggesting a gap for Harris to overcome.

Among Harris supporters, 68% view the economy as a significant factor in their voting decision, while a staggering 93% of Trump supporters consider it crucial. This highlights the economy’s pivotal role in shaping voter preferences.

Understanding polling methodologies is essential for interpreting national polls accurately. Organizations like FiveThirtyEight aggregate data from individual polls, both nationally and in battleground states, to create comprehensive polling averages. The margin of error in these polls indicates the range within which the true value likely falls, providing a measure of reliability.

However, polling organizations face significant challenges in predicting voter turnout, which can affect the accuracy of their results. Accurate methodologies are crucial for understanding how different polling data can predict election outcomes, highlighting the importance of considering these factors in electoral forecasting.

Swing States

Swing states, also known as battleground states, play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of presidential elections. These seven swing states can significantly alter the relationship between the popular vote and electoral votes due to their unique voting rules and demographics. Numerous simulations suggest that Trump has a significant chance of winning a state he previously lost in the 2020 election, highlighting the fluid nature of voter preferences.

As we explore the key swing states, state-by-state analysis, and potential tipping-point states, we’ll uncover the strategic importance of these regions and their impact on the Electoral College.

Key Battleground States

The battleground states for the 2024 presidential election include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states are critical for both candidates, with polling data indicating a very tight race where no candidate has a decisive lead.

Trump is currently the betting favorite in nearly every one of these key states, reflecting his strategic advantage. The exception is in Michigan, where the election odds suggest essentially a 50/50 coin flip between Harris and Trump.

The outcome in these states will play a crucial role in determining the overall result of the election. Here are the odds to win every state in this year’s election.

Odds for Every State

State	Odds for Trump	Odds for Harris
Alabama	-10000	+3300
Alaska	-10000	+1200
Arizona	-400	+250
Arkansas	-10000	+3000
California	+3000	-10000
Colorado	+1400	-10000
Connecticut	+2000	-10000
Delaware	+2500	-10000
Florida	-2000	+700
Georgia	-227	+170
Hawaii	+2500	-10000
Idaho	-10000	+2500
Illinois	+2500	-10000
Indiana	-10000	+1400
Iowa	-455	+275
Kansas	-10000	+2500
Kentucky	-10000	+3000
Louisiana	-10000	+2500
Maine	+700	-2000
Maryland	+3300	-10000
Massachusetts	+3000	-10000
Michigan	+175	-227
Minnesota	+800	-2000
Mississippi	-10000	+5000
Missouri	-10000	+2500
Montana	-10000	+2000
Nebraska	-10000	+2000
Nevada	-162	+120
New Hampshire	+500	-1400
New Jersey	+1400	-10000
New Mexico	+700	-2500
New York	+2500	-10000
North Carolina	-227	+170
North Dakota	-10000	+3300
Ohio	-10000	+1000
Oklahoma	-10000	+3300
Oregon	+1600	-10000
Pennsylvania	-122	+100
Rhode Island	+2500	-10000
South Carolina	-10000	+2500
South Dakota	-10000	+5000
Tennessee	-10000	+5000
Texas	-5000	+1000
Utah	-10000	+2500
Vermont	+5000	-10000
Virginia	+800	-4000
Washington	+2000	-10000
West Virginia	-10000	+3300
Wisconsin	+125	-167
Wyoming	-10000	+5000

Chance to Win Each State

State	Trump’s Chance to Win	Harris’ Chance to Win
Alabama	97.12%	2.88%
Alaska	92.79%	7.21%
Arizona	73.68%	26.32%
Arkansas	96.84%	3.16%
California	3.16%	96.84%
Colorado	6.31%	93.69%
Connecticut	4.59%	95.41%
Delaware	3.74%	96.26%
Florida	88.40%	11.60%
Georgia	65.21%	34.79%
Hawaii	3.74%	96.26%
Idaho	96.26%	3.74%
Illinois	3.74%	96.26%
Indiana	93.69%	6.31%
Iowa	75.46%	24.54%
Kansas	96.26%	3.74%
Kentucky	96.84%	3.16%
Louisiana	96.26%	3.74%
Maine	11.60%	88.40%
Maryland	2.88%	97.12%
Massachusetts	3.16%	96.84%
Michigan	34.38%	65.62%
Minnesota	10.45%	89.55%
Mississippi	98.06%	1.94%
Missouri	96.26%	3.74%
Montana	95.41%	4.59%
Nebraska	95.41%	4.59%
Nevada	57.63%	42.37%
New Hampshire	15.15%	84.85%
New Jersey	6.31%	93.69%
New Mexico	11.50%	88.50%
New York	3.74%	96.26%
North Carolina	65.21%	34.79%
North Dakota	97.12%	2.88%
Ohio	91.59%	8.41%
Oklahoma	97.12%	2.88%
Oregon	5.61%	94.39%
Pennsylvania	52.36%	47.64%
Rhode Island	3.74%	96.26%
South Carolina	96.26%	3.74%
South Dakota	98.06%	1.94%
Tennessee	98.06%	1.94%
Texas	91.59%	8.41%
Utah	96.26%	3.74%
Vermont	1.94%	98.06%
Virginia	10.22%	89.78%
Washington	4.59%	95.41%
West Virginia	97.12%	2.88%
Wisconsin	41.45%	58.46%
Wyoming	98.06%	1.94%

Pathways to Victory

Based on the current election odds and the projected electoral map, Donald Trump has numerous paths to winning the 2024 election. It’s probably more helpful to dissect how Kamala Harris can win the election based on the latest predictions.

If Harris Wins Michigan

Harris could win the election by winning Michigan, where she has currently moved into the position of very small favorite over Trump, and also winning three of the following five states:

• Arizona (+250 underdog)
• Georgia (+170 underdog)
• North Carolina (+170 underdog)
• Pennsylvania (+100 underdog)
• Wisconsin (-167 favorite)

If Harris Loses Michigan

Harris could still win the election if she loses Michigan if she wins:

• Pennsylvania
• Georgia
• And one or more of:
  • Arizona
  • Wisconsin
  • North Carolina

OR

• Pennsylvania
• North Carolina
• And one or more of:
  • Arizona
  • Georgia
  • Wisconsin

If Harris Loses Michigan and Pennsylvania

Harris could still win the election if she loses both Michigan and Pennsylvania if she wins:

• Georgia and North Carolina
• Either:
  • Arizona OR Wisconsin AND Nevada
  • Arizona AND Wisconsin

Electoral College Projections

To win the presidential election, a candidate must secure 270 electoral votes. The popular vote’s impact culminates in the allocation of 538 electoral votes, primarily determined by the number of congressional representatives each state has. Battleground states hold unpredictable voting patterns, making them vital in determining the election’s outcome.

For some time until late Sunday night, the odds in this market had said the most likely presidential election prediction is for Trump to win between 300 and 329 electoral votes, with Harris earning between 210 and 239 votes, a 26.63% chance.

However, these odds changing reflect the changes in Harris’ winning odds. Right now, the market is +225 for Trump to get 270-299 votes. Harris has the same odds of +250 from 240 all the way to 329 votes.

The election outcome is likely to depend on just a few thousand voters in key battleground states, highlighting their importance. As we project the distribution of electoral votes and explore pathways to victory for each candidate, the significance of these states becomes even more apparent.

Predicted Electoral Vote Distribution

How Many Electoral Votes Will Donald Trump Win?

Trump Electoral Votes Won	Odds	Percentage Chance
179 or Fewer	+2500	2.81%
180-209	+1000	6.64%
210-239	+350	16.23%
240-269	+250	20.87%
270-299	+225	22.47%
300-329	+250	20.87%
330-359	+1000	6.64%
360+	+2000	3.48%

How Many Electoral Votes Will Kamala Harris Win?

Harris Electoral Votes Won	Odds	Percentage Chance
179 or Fewer	+2500	2.86%
180-209	+1200	5.71%
210-239	+325	17.48%
240-269	+250	21.22%
270-299	+250	21.22%
300-329	+250	21.22%
330-359	+1000	6.75%
360+	+2000	3.54%

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current betting odds for the 2024 presidential election?

Currently, Donald Trump has a 57.98% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, reflected by a betting line of -150, while Kamala Harris has a 42.02% chance with a +130 betting line.

Which are the key swing states for the 2024 election?

The key swing states for the 2024 election are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election.

How do national polling averages impact election predictions?

National polling averages are essential for forecasting election outcomes as they reflect voter preferences and trends. Relying on these averages helps to make informed predictions about election results.

What are the predicted electoral vote distributions for Harris and Trump?

Predictions indicate that Trump may secure between 270 and 299 electoral votes, whereas Harris is forecasted to receive between 240 and 329 electoral votes.

How can unexpected swing state wins alter the election outcome?

Unexpected swing state wins can dramatically shift the Electoral College balance, ultimately altering the election outcome by changing which candidate gains the necessary electoral votes. Such victories can ignite momentum and influence voter perceptions nationwide.

More Election Odds, Predictions

Presidential Election Predictions

• Election Best Bets: Our election expert has broken down the race from a myriad of angles and has three bets he’s making.
• Election Props: Last State Called, Electoral College Margin, and more bets from our election expert.

Election Odds in Other Key States

• Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
• Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
• Georgia: There’s a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
• Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There’s still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
• Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
• Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
• New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there’s some betting value on a prop here.
• North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
• Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
• Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
• Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
• Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.