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July 29, 2022: Jays' Alek Manoah key to same-game parlay

How bout those Guardians yesterday! That read felt good, we're not gonna lie. Cleveland won the first five, and sure enough the latter innings caused some funkiness and Boston went on to win.

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Jays' Alek Manoah key to same-game parlay

Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

How 'bout those Guardians yesterday! That read felt good, we're not gonna lie. Cleveland won the first five, and sure enough the latter innings caused some funkiness and Boston went on to win. We'll be remembering the data that powered that pick, and we just so happen to have another first five innings bet today. Before we get there, we have a Same Game Parlay we like in Toronto.

Same Game Parlay backing the Blue Jays — Alek Manoah is on the mound tonight for Toronto, authoring an extremely strong season on the hill. Detroit is a favorable opponent for a dominant righty like Manoah; the Tigers are striking out at the sixth-highest rate vs. RHP, and no team has a lower OBP than Detroit when facing a righty. Manoah should have no issues stifling Detroit's scoring, and his alternate strikeouts look extremely appealing. You could take his standard over at 5.5, but our first leg in this SGP is for Manoah to record 5+ Ks. Manoah has 5+ strikeouts in eight straight games and in 15 of his 19 starts this year.

We like Toronto to win off the back of a strong performance from its starter, so Blue Jays' moneyline will be our second addition.

We'll tack on a few Blue Jays batters to get a hit, bringing this SGP to +185 on DraftKings. Alejandro Kirk has a hit in 10 of his last 11 games, and Kirk is hitting .323 against righties this year (RHP Bryan Garcia is on the mound for Detroit). Something about being at home has done wonders for Lourdes Gurriel; the left fielder has a hit in 16 straight home games. All in all, that will wrap our 4-leg SGP for this Toronto game.

+185 SGP on DK:

  • Alek Manoah 5+ strikeouts
  • Toronto ML
  • Lourdes Gurriel hit
  • Alejandro Kirk hit

If it ain't broke ... let's fade Boston again — Boston is 2-7-2 against the first five innings ML in the last 11 games after last night. The Red Sox once again draw a righty in Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff. Boston is striking out at the third-highest rate vs. RHP in the past 30 days, and its OBP is fourth-worst in that span. Brayan Bello is on the mound for Boston tonight. In his three starts this year, the right-handed hurler has allowed four, five and five runs. Milwaukee owns the fourth-highest OBP against RHP, suggesting to us that the Brewers jump on Bello early. With the Red Sox's struggles against RHP, we once again don't see them keeping up to start the game.

The pick: Milwaukee -0.5 first five innings (-120 DK)


In other news ...

Reports indicate Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have lost their Pro Bowl center for the season — Ryan Jensen, the Bucs Pro Bowl center who has started in every game he's played in since 2017, suffered a knee injury on the first day of training camp. The injury is expected to keep Jensen off the field for the entire season, a blow to the Buccaneers' interior offensive line. We just wrote about why we liked Tom Brady to win MVP, so this news has us sweating a bit. We wish Jensen a speedy recovery. Don't be surprised if you see Tampa Bay make a move for a new center.

MLB trade deadline fast approaching — MLB's trade deadline will be here soon, Aug. 2. The baseball world is still waiting to hear where Nationals star Juan Soto will land, but here are 25 players who could be dealt before the deadline. Keep your ear to the ground on the rumor mill; futures odds will shift quickly should a contender add a pivotal piece to its team.

Rocket Mortgage Classic takes us into the weekend — We'll have ourselves some golf this weekend, as the Rocket Mortgage Classic continues on. At the end of Round 1, it was Tony Finau in the lead, fresh off a win at the 3M Open. By the time you read this, Finau will have just teed off, and we're seeing +400 for him to win again. Charley Hoffman has gotten off to a fast start on Friday morning and currently has +3500 odds to win the tournament. Enjoy the weekend of golf!


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Quick Picks

1 Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

As we highlighted above, there's plenty to support a big game out of Toronto tonight. Alek Manoah, who comes into this one with a 11-4 record, 2.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, should have no issues with a Tigers lineup that can't hit RHP. Detroit's OBP and WRC+ rank dead last against righties, and Manoah has been one of the league's best. We'll take the Blue Jays -1.5 here.
Friday, 7:07 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Tigers
+2.5 (-103) +310 > 8.5 (-105)
Blue Jays
-1.5 (-180) -357 < 8.5 (+100)
2 Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox

Well, we already like Milwaukee to win the first five innings, but there's another angle worth some attention here: the over. No game has a higher projected increase in runs scored than the one in Boston today. We're seeing a +15% increase in runs in this game and will be following that accordingly. Bet over 9 runs.
Friday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Brewers
-1.5 (+105) -156 > 8.5 (-135)
Red Sox
+1.5 (-113) +148 < 8.5 (-105)
3 Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays

We don't know how long starter Jeffrey Springs will toe the rubber in this one for Tampa Bay; he hasn't made it to the fifth inning in two straight starts. If there's ever a game for him to have success, it's here. Cleveland has the third-worst OBP vs. LHP and strikes out at the sixth-highest rate in the past 30 days. On the flip side, the Rays conceivably should be able to jump on Shane Bieber. Tampa's OBP is fifth-highest against righties in the last month. We'll follow all this and load up on Tampa Bay to win -112.
Friday, 7:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Guardians
+1.5 (-222) +103 > 6.5 (-122)
Rays
+1.5 (-200) -112 < 6.5 (-115)
4 Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros

Hard to ignore the season Justin Verlander is having, 13-3 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP as we near August. The Astros ace has made five starts against Seattle this season, and in each of the past two, he's allowed just one run on seven innings. We like that, and thus we bet on Houston to win at -167.
Friday, 8:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Mariners
+1.5 (-140) +155 > 7 (-120)
Astros
-1 (-120) -167 < 7 (-115)
5 Athletics @ Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been hitting RHP much better of late, while the same can't be said for Oakland. Lance Lynn had a much-needed shutout performance in his last start, momentum we like to build against the Athletics tonight. We'll take Chicago at -1.5 at home.
Friday, 8:10 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Athletics
+1.5 (-120) +175 > 8 (-115)
White Sox
-1.5 (+105) -189 < 8 (-113)
6 Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

We've been highlighting this series for a few days now, citing the Colorado weather as a fulcrum for runs scored. What if we told you that Colorado did not score last night, and the over still hit? Yup, the Dodgers poured on 13 runs by their lonesome to cash us over 12. The weather once again suggests plenty of runs, and who are we to question the forecast. We'll take over 11.5 runs here, thanks.
Friday, 8:40 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Dodgers
-1.5 (-149) -222 > 11.5 (-107)
Rockies
+2.5 (-111) +200 < 11.5 (-105)

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