NFL MVP odds: The case for Tom Brady

With NFL teams reporting to training camp, the next move on our end is to find the MVP futures worth a wager before the season starts. This will be a series, with four to five candidates looking like solid bets, to me at least.

We start with Tom Brady.

Tom Brady's 2022 MVP odds

As of this writing, Tom Brady is +800 on both DraftKings and FanDuel to win his fourth MVP. Those odds slot him just behind Josh Allen, the second-best odds to win the award this upcoming season.

Why Tom Brady Makes Sense

First, I will only be looking at quarterbacks for any future on this market, as 14 of the past 15 winners have been a QB. The MVP typically goes to a player putting up hefty statistics on one of the top teams in the league, and Brady has a good a chance as any to check off those boxes.

Last year, Brady threw for 5,316 yards, 43 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, leading Tampa Bay to a 13-4 record and the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

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The 5,316 yards were the most in the NFL, and the most of Brady's career. He lost out to Aaron Rodgers likely due to Rodgers' 37 TD-4 INT ratio, along with the Packers bringing home the top seed in the NFC.

Rodgers lost Davante Adams, and the expectation here is a drop in numbers for the Packers quarterback and wins for the Packers team. Brady has retained much of his offensive core and is well-positioned for another strong season.

Brady has gone for 40+ passing touchdowns both seasons in Tampa Bay, averaging 4,974.5 passing yards in the two years with the Buccaneers. From a statistical viewpoint, there's no doubt Brady is going to pile up numbers.

The NFC is Wide Open

As mentioned, this award so often goes to the quarterback of the league's top team. A few of the recent winners, their team's record, and where they found themselves in the standings:

• 2021: Aaron Rodgers, Packers: 13-4, Best record in the NFL
• 2020: Aaron Rodgers, Packers: 13-3, Best record in the NFC
• 2019: Lamar Jackson, Ravens: 14-2, Best record in the NFL
• 2018: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 12-4, Best record in the AFC
• 2017: Tom Brady, Patriots: 13-3, Best record in the NFL

The conferences this year in the NFL seem to offer vastly different levels of competition. The AFC has 7-8 quality teams vying for the postseason, not even including plenty of viable options that may sneak in.

Meanwhile, the NFC has just a few teams you can confidently say will be in the postseason: the Rams, the Packers and the Bucs. Maybe you include the Cowboys in there if you so please (I wouldn't), but the point remains: this is a top-heavy conference.

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This benefits Brady and the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay, which has retained most of their Super Bowl-winning roster, is well-equipped for a great record in 2022.

An NFC South title and homefield advantage is a very real possibility, and if Brady's numbers maintain along with that team success, Brady is going to be in the mix for MVP at season's end.

While I love Josh Allen and believe he's the favorite for good reason, the Bills' path to AFC dominance is much more daunting. Should they accomplish it, I like Allen to bring home his first MVP, but it's going to be far more difficult.

Meanwhile, Brady shouldn't see much resistance. 

The Narrative

Brady briefly retired this offseason, a decision that didn't last very long. My guess is Brady saw what we just discussed: a path to another ring.

It will be quite the story if 45-year old Tom Brady is powering the best team in the NFL, piling on big game after big game. That is sure to attract voter's attention, and would go in our favor here if we place a future on him to win MVP.

Final word

Tom Brady at +800 to win MVP is a bet I'm comfortable loading up and sitting on. His numbers are sure to be there, his team is in a great spot to win games, and the narrative is as strong as can be.

How poetic would it be if Brady matches the feat accomplished by only his old rival, Peyton Manning? That being to win MVP with two different teams. If this is Brady's last year, and murmurs start leaking out that this truly is the last ride, then that's only going to add fuel to the fire to make Brady the 2022 MVP.

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