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The Bark Bets Newsletter

February 27, 2023: Have no fear, the Beard is here!

Welcome to a fresh week here at Bark Bets, and we're ready to start it off right. We'd like to continue highlighting both main sports right now to stay fresh and sharp as playoffs inch closer and closer, so our Monday's best bet will look to a cross-sports parlay for two good-looking angles.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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Have no fear, the Beard is here!

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to a fresh week here at Bark Bets, and we're ready to start it off right. We'd like to continue highlighting both main sports right now to stay fresh and sharp as playoffs inch closer and closer, so our Monday's best bet will look to a cross-sports parlay for two good-looking angles.

Limited NBA slate means keep it simple

We've found lately that the best approach to our bets has been simplicity. Sometimes the best bet doesn't require hours of meticulous study or running various checks. Look at the board and find a matchup that stands out. At this point in the season, both in the NBA and NHL, teams have reputations, and so often they deliver on that reputation.

All we're trying to do is find us the best spots on a night and who stands to benefit. With only four games today in the NBA, it was relatively easy to find us an enviable spot, and we settled on the Philadelphia end. Miami is a good team, no doubt, but their one glaring weakness has been allowing threes, a constant in their games all season. The Heat allow the second-most threes per game on the year, and we've been seeing guards in particular find plenty of success against the Miami perimeter defense.

Over the last two weeks, 10 of the 13 guards to play Miami and have a three-points prop line have gone over their set number. That backs up the season trend and is an angle we need to continue betting on.

In waltzes James Harden, who is averaging 3.4 made threes per game over his past five on 7.6 long-range attempts per contest. Harden's line is set at just 2.5 tonight, a number he's exceeded in 68% of his home games this year and in two of his last three meetings with Miami. Simplicity is key, so let's leave it at that.

Leg 1: James Harden over 2.5 threes (-160 DK)

Boston-Edmonton shots should come

The hockey game we're most excited about tonight is the Bruins visiting the Oilers. We have two high-powered offenses squaring off and two of the best teams in the league. When teams of this makeup tend to meet, we like to look toward the shots on goal market. Each team has the capability of racking up a ton of shots in a hurry, and knowing the other offense can do the same is likely to up the intensity on that focus.

Given that belief, we're leaning toward the Oilers' end for our preferred shot target. Edmonton is averaging nearly 35 shots per game at home, and Boston has been a bit looser defensively lately. We're liking Leon Draisaitl to be involved. Draisaitl is on a goal-scoring tear right now, scoring in seven straight games. That success has translated to an uptick in SOG, with Draisaitl over 2.5 shots in six of his last eight, averaging 3.88 SOG/game during that stretch.

Draisaitl has 13 SOG and four goals in his last three games against Boston, and in a massive game at home, we expect him to continue pushing the pace.

Leg 2: Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 SOG (-155 DK)

Together, this cross-sports parlay comes in at +167 on DraftKings. Good luck, and let's see some shots all around!


In the news ...

Timo Meier traded to New Jersey Devils — After weeks (months?) of speculation, the shoe finally dropped in the NHL, with star forward Timo Meier being traded away from San Jose and to New Jersey. Meier is one of the most talented offensive players in the league, scoring 35 goals last year and already tallying 31 this season. It's a blockbuster move for the Devils, who have been playing much better than many anticipated heading into the season. Meier joins young phenom Jack Hughes to bring a tantalizing balance of offensive firepower to the table. New Jersey is currently second in the Metropolitan Division and comfortably in the playoffs. The Devils are now +1300 to win the Stanley Cup, the seventh-best odds in the league.
 
Damian Lillard drops 71 in career night — Man, how often do we love betting on players' threes against Houston? Last night proved why, as Damian Lillard dropped a career-high 71 points against the Rockets thanks to 22-38 from the field and a blistering 13-22 from long range. It's a highlight we recommend you take a few minutes to watch. Portland currently sits just a half-game back from the play-in field and just two games back from the sixth seed. The Blazers are +330 to make the playoffs.  

Manny Machado signs 11-year contract extension with Padres —After hinting that this season might be his last in San Diego, Manny Machado is set to sign a massive new contract with the Padres tying him to the team until 2034. The deal comes in at 11 years and $350 million, making for the fourth-richest contract in MLB history. The Padres are most certainly all-in right now after acquiring both Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts to pair with Machado and Fernando Tatis. San Diego is +950 to win it all this year, the sixth-best odds.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll

Quick Picks

1 Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets

We have a tank-off on our hands! The two worst teams in the Eastern Conference clash here, and Detroit has a solid batch of contributors out this evening. While Charlotte should win because of it, it's very hard to back a 6.5-point spread between two such unpredictable teams. One thing we know for certain is that both teams lack any semblance of defensive ability. Let's load up over 234.5 points because of it.
Monday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Pistons
+7 (-110) +235 > 234.5 (-110)
Hornets
-6.5 (-110) -250 < 234.5 (-110)
2 Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks

Two of the NBA's hottest teams square off here as Boston, the top seed in the East, heads to MSG to visit the Knicks, winners of five straight games. Jaylen Brown won't be playing tonight, and Derrick White is day-to-day, testing Boston's guard depth. The Celtics have dropped three of their last four games in New York, and the Knicks beat the Cs in Boston on Jan. 26. We'll grab New York +2.5 in this one.
Monday, 7:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Celtics
-2.5 (-107) -132 > 223 (-110)
Knicks
+2.5 (-110) +120 < 223 (-110)
3 Brandon Ingram over 24.5 points

Ingram has ideal volume to back for a points prop, chucking up 21.4 attempts per game from the field over his last 10 games. He's gone for 25+ in seven of his last eight games, with his lone miss the most recent outing against the Knicks. That seemed to be mostly a product of inefficiency, having one of his worst shooting nights we've seen lately. He still had 22 attempts there, and as long as he's shooting this much, he's worth looking for points. Last time Ingram saw Orlando, he dropped 31.

Latest Odds:  -150
4 Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars

This seems like the right time to back Dallas to pour 'em on. While we do like the recent averages, teams just present to us gut-feels at this point of the season. Our gut read on Vancouver is that they let in a crap ton of goals every single night. The Stars offense should be able to take advantage, so give us their puckline here.
Monday, 8:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Canucks
+1.5 (-110) +230 > 6 (-120)
Stars
-1.5 (+100) -270 < 6 (-120)
5 Chicago Blackhawks @ Anaheim Ducks

What reigns supreme here: bad defense or bad offense? What we have in this one is two of the NHL's worst, but it offers up an interesting study. Both teams get obliterated by shots and goals, which tends to deflate their own offensive numbers. Now, this could be a chicken or an egg thing, does their offense look meager because their defense is so bad, or is their defense so bad because their offense can't possess the puck effectively? Surprisingly, the under has hit in both meetings this season, so maybe it really is the offense's fault. As such, we'll grab under 6 here.
Monday, 10:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Blackhawks
+1.5 (-222) +112 > 6 (-115)
Ducks
-1 (+123) -130 < 6 (-118)
6 Max Domi over 2.5 SOG 

While goals may come at a premium, we do still foresee shots on net in this Chicago-Anaheim game. The Ducks are allowing the most shots per game this season, and it's Max Domi who catches our eye. Patrick Kane is not playing tonight with a looming trade coming, and when Kane has sat, Domi has cashed. In four games this season without Kane, Domi has four or more SOG each time. We're asking for only three tonight.

Latest Odds:  -110

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