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April 19, 2024: NBA Play-Ins: Who steps up for injured stars?

Tonight, both Miami and New Orleans are without two pivotal pieces in Jimmy Butler and Zion Williamson. While their absence is a bummer for tonight's product, it does guide our prop betting decision-making.

Today's picks and sports betting news you need to know
 
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NBA Play-Ins: Who steps up for injured stars?

Jaime Jaquez Jr. (left) and Jonas Valanciunas (right). USA TODAY Sports photos.

Unfortunately for fans of high-quality basketball, we're starved of tonight's full potential, as both Miami and New Orleans are without two pivotal pieces in Jimmy Butler and Zion Williamson. Both Butler and Williamson suffered injuries in their first play-in games, likely a contributing factor to their respective teams not clinching a playoff spot earlier this week. 

While their absence is a bummer for tonight's product, it does guide our prop betting decision-making.

The lack of stars is our North Star

Opportunity is the name of the game here. Butler and Williamson are both massive focal points of their offenses, so their absence opens up that aforementioned opportunity for others to step up.

On the Miami end, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is a name to know. Jaquez is rolling as is, netting 20, 18 and 15 points in his past three games for the Heat. It's his role when Butler can't go that really catches the eye. 

In 54 games with Butler this season, Jaquez averages 10.5 points per game in 26.1 minutes per game. In 22 games without Butler, Jaquez's averages balloon to 15.4 points per game on 33.1 minutes on average. He's over this 13.5 line in 14 of the 22 games, and with his elevated role, we're liking him to contribute offensively tonight.

Betting: Jaime Jaquez Jr. over 13.5 points (-118 DraftKings)


Then in New Orleans, there's a clear target in Jonas Valanciunas. The Pelicans big perhaps predictably is tasked with more work when Williamson can't go. In 71 games with Zion this season, Valanciunas averages 11.3 points in 22.7 minutes of game play, averaging 8.4 field goal attempts per game.

In 12 games without Zion, Valanciunas plays 27.6 minutes per game, shoots 11 field goals per game, and averages 17 points per game.

He's over tonight's line in 10 of the 12 games without the Pelicans star PF, which includes three games against the Kings, where Valanciunas has averaged 15.7 points per game.

Sign us up!

Betting: Jonas Valanciunas over 11.5 points (-122 FanDuel)


In the news ...

NHL playoff field set — The final two playoff matchups have been determined in the NHL, with the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights slated to meet the Dallas Stars, and the Edmonton Oilers facing off against the Los Angeles Kings. The Oilers are -190 to win their series, and Dallas is -140 to take down the champs. We'll be previewing every series and getting you ready for the action all weekend over on the Yardbarker sports betting hub. For our Eastern Conference betting preview, hop in here

NFL Draft less than a week away — The first round of the NFL Draft is just six days away! If you were unfamiliar, there are quite a few different betting markets you can attack for the draft. The first round this year is expected to be primarily offensive players, with the over/under set at 21.5 offensive players taken in Round One. We've got you covered with bets to consider making at plus-money for next Thursday, including under 9.5 OL taken and over 6.5 WRs. 

NFL reinstates five players from indefinite suspensions due to gambling — Five NFL players have been reinstated from their indefinite suspensions on Thursday, all of whom have been serving punishments for violating the league's gambling policy. The group includes Detroit's Quintez Cephus, C.J. Moore and Demetrius Taylor, Washington's Shaka Toney and Indianapolis' Rashod Berry. One notable name who has not been reinstated is former Colts CB Isaiah Rodgers, now a member of the Eagles, who was one of the few players to gamble on his own team.


Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.

Quick Picks

1 Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

Miami may be without Jimmy Butler, but we do think they have enough to beat a Bulls team that really does not scare us. The Heat went 13-9 without Butler this season and have won two of the past three against Chicago. We'll opt for the team we just think is better and back Miami's moneyline at -120.
Friday, 7:00 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Bulls
+2 (-110) +110 > 205.5 (-110)
Heat
-1.5 (-105) -120 < 205.5 (-109)
2 Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans

We're definitely bummed that Zion Williamson can't go tonight, and we worry that could be enough to push the Pelicans out of the playoff picture. Sacramento plays fast on the offensive end and the void from Williamson may be too much to overcome. We're on the Kings' moneyline.
Friday, 9:30 PM Eastern SPREAD MONEY LINE OVER / UNDER
Kings
+1.5 (-115) +100 > 209.5 (-118)
Pelicans
+1.5 (-110) +100 < 209.5 (-110)
3 Garrett Crochet over 6.5 Ks 

The Phillies may not be the best target for strikeouts, as they're sitting 14th in strikeout rate against lefties, one can't ignore how many Ks Crochet is piling up. In four starts this year, Crochet thrice has hit 8+ strikeouts. We'll take our chances on him continuing this tear on the rubber.

Latest Odds:  -110
4 Justin Verlander under 5.5 Ks 

Houston's Verlander is making his first start of the season and draws a tough matchup with the Nationals. Washington does not strike out often, especially against righties. Last year, only one team had a lower strikeout rate against RHP than Washington, and this year, nine straight righties have gone under their K prop. Fade Verlander's debut today. Verlander is under this line in each of his past two against Washington.

Latest Odds:  -170
5 New York Islanders @ Carolina Hurricanes 

Carolina seems well-positioned to find plenty of offense at home against the Islanders. The Hurricanes average nearly 36 shots per game, and in four games against New York this season, they've averaged four goals and 40.75 shots per game. We'll back the better team to get off on the right foot at home, load up Carolina -1.5 at +120 tomorrow.

Latest Odds:  Canes -1.5, +120
6 Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins 

Both teams are heading into the postseason on losing streaks, but we kind of like the value on Toronto here. You could convince us that Boston purposely slid down the standings to avoid Tampa Bay and instead grab a matchup with Toronto, who they've beaten in seven straight meetings. Careful what you wish for, so we're going to back the Leafs' moneyline here at +110.

Latest Odds:  Leafs ML +110

Betting News & Notes

MLB Opening Pitch: Expert picks, odds, predictions for Friday 4/19

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NBA Play-In best bets: Expert picks, player props, odds for Friday 4/19

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MLB strikeout props for 4/19: Can Crochet knit together some K's?

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NFL Draft bets: Various betting markets for total offensive players taken in first round

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MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks and predictions for Friday 4/19

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Stanley Cup bets: NHL Eastern Conference first-round betting preview

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Premier League Game of the Week: Fulham and Liverpool battle it out once more on Sunday 4/21

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For all the latest betting news, check out the
Yardbarker Sports Betting news hub.
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