2018 NFL division preview: AFC East

Buffalo Bills

2017 record: 9-7 (second in AFC East)

Key additions: C Russell Bodine, S Rafael Bush, WR Corey Coleman, CB Vontae Davis, CB Phillip Gaines, RB Chris Ivory, WR Jeremy Kerley, DT Star Lotulelei, QB A.J. McCarron, DE Trent Murphy, T Marshall Newhouse, OLB Keenan Robinson, DE Ryan Russell, DT Tyrunn Walker

Notable losses: MLB Preston Brown, CB E.J. Gaines, T Cordy Glenn, T Seantrel Henderson, G Richie Incognito, CB Leonard Johnson, WR Jordan Matthews, QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Deonte Thompson, C Eric Wood, CB Shareece Wright

Top draft picks: QB Josh Allen, OLB Tremaine Edmunds, DT Harrison Phillips

2018 outlook: Absent from every previous 21st-century playoff bracket, last season the Bills snapped major North American sports’ longest postseason drought and came close to derailing what turned out to be a dangerous Jaguars team. Second-year general manager Brandon Beane didn’t let that unexpected January game deter his long game — finding a quarterback solution. Buffalo has taken numerous shots at landing one since Jim Kelly’s 1997 retirement — first-rounders J.P. Losman (2004), E.J. Manuel (2013) and now Allen; free agents Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor — but none started more than four seasons. The Beane regime is now tied to Allen, one of the most polarizing passing prospects in years. But with just McCarron and Nathan Peterman in front of him, Allen seems poised to commandeer the starting job this season. 

Buffalo finished 21st in DVOA last season — its minus-9.8 percent figure the lowest of any 2017 playoff team and second-worst measurement of the past five years — so it’s arguable the front office made the right choice in stopping the string of one-year Taylor arrangements. The Bills lost three starting offensive linemen (Glenn, Richie Incognito and Eric Wood) and don’t have a lot of bright spots offensively beyond LeSean McCoy. Buffalo deployed the 26th-ranked defense last year but did make some nice additions. Murphy and Lotulelei are set to start up front, and Davis adds to a sneaky-solid secondary corps comprised of Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. 

Are they better or worse than last season: Buffalo’s plummeted from a wild-card team to one that’s tied for the worst Super Bowl odds. So, worse. This season will be about Allen’s development.

Best-case scenario: Allen is a surprisingly quick study, usurping McCarron and Peterman, and leads the Bills to a .500 record or close to it.

Worst-case scenario: Equipped with one of the NFL’s worst pass-catching corps, the Wyoming prodigy shows he needs more work than the franchise anticipated. And the biggest Bills quarterback investment in 35 years moves closer to validating the predraft criticism.

Record prediction: 4-12

Miami Dolphins

2017 record: 6-10 (third in AFC East)

Key additions: WR Danny Amendola, LB Terence Garvin, RB Frank Gore, C Daniel Kilgore, DT Kendall Langford, QB Brock Osweiler, QB Bryce Petty, DE Robert Quinn, G Josh Sitton, DT Akeem Spence, WR Albert Wilson

Notable losses: OL Jermon Bushrod, QB Jay Cutler, WR Jarvis Landry, QB Matt Moore, K Cody Parkey, C Mike Pouncey, DT Ndamukong Suh, TE Julius Thomas, LB Lawrence Timmons, S Michael Thomas, OL Sam Young

Top draft picks: DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, TE Mike Gesicki, LB Jerome Baker

2018 outlook: Ryan Tannehill’s preseason injury doomed the 2017 Dolphins, with Cutler not making good on yet another team’s faith before heading toward reality TV stardom. As such, it’s hard to read the ’18 squad's prospects. Tannehill’s left knee is obviously the main issue; it prevented him from playing since December 2016. When Miami’s quarterback was last healthy, Adam Gase resided as one of the NFL’s up-and-coming young coaches. Since shoved off that corner by Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, Gase has a tough task ahead. The Dolphins cut their best defensive player and traded their most productive offensive threat before using a chunk of the Suh savings to sign Patriots and Chiefs auxiliary receivers, attempting a volume approach to replacing Landry. 

While there isn’t a Suh-level talent on the Dolphins defense any longer, Miami does have some interesting performers on that side of the ball. The Dolphins are teaming a deep and experienced defensive end group (Quinn, Cameron Wake, Charles Harris, Andre Branch and William Hayes — the Quinn/Wake/Branch trio comprising more than a sixth of the salary cap) with an intriguing secondary. Flanking established safety Reshad Jones will be Fitzpatrick, Brandin Cooks fantasy owners’ playoff demon Xavien Howard and improving cornerback Bobby McCain. But the Dolphins may not have enough yet (28th in 2017 defensive DVOA with Suh) to consistently deter offenses.

Are they better or worse than last season? Slightly worse. Suh, Landry and Pouncey were cornerstone Dolphins and are employed elsewhere now. Gase’s scheming acumen aside, the Dolphins (who share the longest Super Bowl odds with the Bills and Cardinals) are a Tannehill knee injury away from a run at the 2019 No. 1 pick.

Best-case scenario: Tannehill returns to form amid another Gase success story, and the Dolphins sneak into a wild-card slot (hey, they’re capable of making the Patriots look second-rate in south Florida) in maybe the weakest AFC in 20-plus years.

Worst-case scenario: Another Tannehill knee injury thrusts Miami closer to rebuilding and a 2019 top-five quarterback pick.

Record prediction: 6-10

New England Patriots

2017 record: 13-3 (AFC champion)

Key additions: T Trent Brown, DE Adrian Clayborn, WR Eric Decker, RB Jeremy Hill, CB Jason McCourty, WR/KR Cordarrelle Patterson, C/G Brian Schwenke, DT Danny Shelton

Notable losses: WR Danny Amendola, CB Johnson Bademosi, DT Alan Branch, CB Malcolm Butler, WR Brandin Cooks, T Cameron Fleming, DE James Harrison, DL Ricky Jean-Francois, RB Dion Lewis, LB Shea McClellin, T Nate Solder

Top draft choices: G/T Isaiah Wynn*, RB Sony Michel, CB Duke Dawson

2018 Outlook: Somehow in Year 18 of this nearly unprecedented run, the Patriots are again the favorites to come out of the AFC. They remain the class of this conference until proven otherwise. Thanks to a perpetually weak division and a conference featuring contenders with bigger questions than the NFC’s best teams, New England’s route to Super Bowl LIII figures to be far less grueling than its NFC brethren will encounter. The NFC’s top contenders have deeper rosters, but that January bracket will be a bloodbath. Thanks to a convenient 2018 setup, which also includes catching their top NFC opposition (the Packers and Vikings) coming to Foxborough, no team can look ahead like the Patriots.

The Patriots managed to churn out another top-10 scoring defense last season — their 14th in the past 17 years — and Bill Belichick’s ability to assemble a similar unit should pretty much be a given at this point. Top cogs Dont’a Hightower, Trey Flowers, Stephon Gilmore and Devin McCourty return from that defense — one that stifled the Jaguars in the second half of the AFC title game to allow for another Tom Brady comeback to work. And of course, Brady and Gronk are arguably the greatest ever at their respective positions. They play behind a consistently well-coached offensive line as well. If the Patriots stay healthy, they have a strong chance at booking a ninth consecutive playoff bye and being one or two home games away from a ninth Super Bowl in the Belichick era.

Are they better or worse than in last season? Slightly worse, but the Patriots have weathered bigger offseason losses than the ones they observed this year. Their pass-catching corps, though, doesn’t look as strong after the Cooks trade and the Julian Edelman suspension. New England will be even more dependent on Gronkowski staying healthy.

Best-case scenario: Super Bowl LIII championship. Brady’s rings are nice, but his top claim to the QB GOAT crown is longevity. If the 19th-year quarterback stays at or close to his MVP form, and Gronkowski is healthy, the Patriots and their reliable defense will be a threat in January. New England is 19-3 at home in the playoffs under Belichick.

Worst-case scenario: First-round playoff loss. Discounting a Brady injury, the Pats seeing their all-time great passer decline and the team failing to secure a bye looks like the floor for this team. It’s nearly impossible to see the Bills, Dolphins or Jets dethroning the Pats in the AFC East, where they are a minus-800 favorite. But if Brady regresses and/or Gronk goes down, an early playoff exit isn’t that hard to envision.

Prediction: 12-4

* = out for season due to Achilles tendon tear

New York Jets

2017 record: 5-11

Key additions: DE Henry Anderson, QB Teddy Bridgewater, OLB Brandon Copeland, RB Isaiah Crowell, T Antonio Garcia, CB Trumaine Johnson, C Spencer Long, ILB Kevin Minter, OLB Kevin Pierre-Louis, WR Terrelle Pryor, RB Thomas Rawls, WR Andre Roberts, K Jason Myers, OL Travis Swanson, TE Clive Walford, S J.J. Wilcox, ILB Avery Williamson 

Notable losses: K Chandler Catanzaro, ILB Demario Davis, DE Kony Ealy, RB Matt Forte, OL Wesley Johnson, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, DE Muhammad Wilkerson

Top draft picks: QB Sam Darnold, DL Nathan Shepherd

2018 outlook: The most exciting Jets offseason since the early Rex Ryan days took a wild turn when the Browns shocked most observers by taking Baker Mayfield, allowing (by most accounts) euphoria among Jets brass who had recently watched Kirk Cousins spurn the team's $30 million-per-year offer. Darnold continues to look like New York’s Week 1 quarterback, which is interesting because the Jets are in the odd position of having three starter-level passers. Whether or not the latest USC-to-New York QB gets the initial start, the Mike Maccagnan era now has its centerpiece after some rudderless years and bad contracts. However, the Jets are weak up front — Pro Football Focus ranked Gang Green’s 2017 offensive line as the NFL’s third-worst — and the Jets invested little in upgrades.

The regime that authorized two of this decade’s worst contracts — for Wilkerson and Darrelle Revis — went back in with a monster deal to land Johnson. The only cornerback on the Forbes List is now the NFL’s second-highest-paid corner ($14.5M AAV), despite zero Pro Bowls in six years. The Jets also replaced Davis with Williamson, a quality Titans three-down linebacker. But the Jets bizarrely didn’t address their second-biggest need this year. This team still houses no proven edge-rushers and is oddly set to run the ineffective Jordan Jenkins-Josh Martin starting duo back for another try. This lowers the Jets’ defensive ceiling considerably, and they’re calling the Raiders about a Khalil Mack deal.

Are they better or worse than last season? A bit better. There are still plenty of holes on the Jets’ roster, but the additions of Darnold, Johnson and Williamson supply talent to a young team in dire need of it.

Best-case scenario: Darnold’s real and spectacular and has the Jets entering the 2019 offseason like the 49ers strutted into this one. However, it’s hard to see the Jets making the playoffs this season.

Worst-case scenario: Josh McCown needs to play much more than anticipated, with Darnold showing he’s not there yet. A third straight woeful season has the recently extended Maccagnan and Todd Bowles back on the hot seat.

Record prediction: 5-11