2018 NFL division preview: AFC South

Houston Texans

2017 record: 4-12 (T-third in AFC South)

Key additions: CB Johnson Bademosi, WR Sammie Coates, CB Aaron Colvin, G Zach Fulton, T Seantrel Henderson, G Senio Kelemete, S Tyrann Mathieu, QB Joe Webb, CB Kayvon Webster, QB Brandon Weeden

Notable losses: G Jeff Allen, T Chris Clark, LB Brian Cushing, RB Andre Ellington, TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, T Breno Giacomini, S Marcus Gilchrist, LB Jelani Jenkins, DB Eddie Pleasant, QB Tom Savage, OL Xavier Su’a-Filo, QB T.J. Yates

Top draft picks: S Justin Reid, OL Martinas Rankin, TE Jordan Akins

2018 outlook: One practice injury transformed the Texans from fringe Super Bowl contenders into an NFL basement bastion. Deshaun Watson's return has the Texans in the rare position of AFC threat (per Las Vegas) after a miserable season. Watson threw 19 touchdown passes in seven games and added 269 rushing yards. While the young quarterback's 3.9 percent interception rate sat above only DeShone Kizer and Trevor Siemian last season, he’s had another year to develop as a pro. 

Contested-catch demon DeAndre Hopkins and boom-or-bust WR2 Will Fuller lead a top-heavy skill core, but the Texans’ biggest worry (besides their injury-prone stars) should be the offensive line. Center Nick Martin’s now endured two lengthy injury rehabs as an NFLer, and left tackle Julie’n Davenport (a Bucknell product with 238 career snaps) is a steep drop from Duane Brown. The three free agents the Texans signed to supplement the incumbents (Fulton, Henderson and Kelemete) may at best be lower-level starters. This is a problem.

Despite J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney having been teammates for five years, they’ve barely shared the field as superstars. When Watt tore through the mid-2010s like a Lawrence Taylor/Reggie White hybrid destroyer, Clowney encountered injuries. Now that Clowney’s an elite edge man, Watt’s career is in jeopardy. But they and a now-healthy Whitney Mercilus represent a menacing (if healthy) Texans front-seven troika. Houston extended Benardrick McKinney this offseason, and now-full-time running mate Zach Cunningham is an upgrade over the oft-unavailable Cushing. Experienced cover men Mathieu and Colvin join a secondary that needs Kevin Johnson (14 missed games the past two years) to stay healthy now that Johnathan Joseph is 34 and Kareem Jackson is now at safety. 

Are they better or worse than last season? If Watt and Watson stay upright, this is the best Bill O’Brien Texans team. Houston's better than its 2017 edition, but injury issues make assessing this team difficult.

Best-case scenario: The Texans’ stars remain available and spearhead a contender capable at its best of knocking off any AFC team. A healthy Houston is an outfit that could derail a Pittsburgh-New England AFC title game.

Worst-case scenario: Watt and Clowney again fail to share the stage, and the O-line disrupts Watson’s development. This team could win anywhere from five to 11 games and it wouldn’t shock.

Record prediction: 9-7

Indianapolis Colts

2017 record: 4-12 (T-third in AFC South)

Key additions: DL Denico Autry, DE Ryan Delaire, TE Eric Ebron, OLB Najee Goode, WR Ryan Grant, WR Cobi Hamilton, T Austin Howard, DE Chris McCain, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, RB Branden Oliver, CB Lenzy Pipkins, OL Matt Slauson, OL J’Marcus Webb

Notable losses: WR Kamar Aiken, DE Henry Anderson, LB Jon Bostic, DB Darius Butler, RB Frank Gore, DT Johnathan Hankins, CB Rashaan Melvin, G Jack Mewhort, LB Barkevious Mingo, WR Donte Moncrief, OL Mike Person, QB Scott Tolzien

Top draft picks: G Quenton Nelson, LB Darius Leonard, OL Braden Smith, LB Kemoko Turay, DL Tyquan Lewis

2018 outlook: Six years ago, the Colts immediately rebounded from a quarterback-disaster season and won 11 games. Andrew Luck’s return changes everything for this franchise, but he's now leading a full-on rebuilding team. T.Y. Hilton and Anthony Castonzo remain in place from the playoff years, and Nelson looked like this draft’s biggest can’t-miss prospect. Questions still abound on the right side of Indianapolis’ line, and Grant — a career Washington backup — is an underwhelming No. 2 wideout. Even though issues appear throughout Indianapolis’ starting lineup and the franchise went through the historically odd Josh McDaniels-to-Frank Reich sequence, the Colts are on a better long-term track than they were when Luck was last healthy.

Containing teams this season may be a chore for the Colts. There isn’t a solidified position group on this defense. Malik Hooker’s return from two knee ligament tears is encouraging, and general manager Chris Ballard used three second-round picks to add front-seven talent. Elsewhere? It's ugly. Only one team allowed more points than the Colts last season (25.2 per game), and the defenders who will be around when this team is ready to contend again are mostly not in the starting lineup (or on the roster) yet.

Are they better or worse than last season? The Colts are undermanned at most spots, but Luck is back. They won’t be worse than last year, but they probably won’t be too much better.

Best-case scenario: Luck does not suffer any setbacks, and the rookie defenders who Ballard drafted display promise. The playoffs appear unrealistic for this Colts edition.

Worst-case scenario: Luck’s shoulder not holding up. The Colts can live with a bad defense and another season ending after Week 17 but cannot afford to see their quarterback go down again.

Record prediction: 5-11

Jacksonville Jaguars

2017 record: 10-6 (AFC South champion)

Key additions: CB Kenneth Acker, S Cody Davis, CB D.J. Hayden, QB Cody Kessler, WR Donte Moncrief, G Andrew Norwell, TE Niles Paul, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, DT Sealver Siliga

Notable losses: CB Aaron Colvin, QB Chad Henne, WR Allen Hurns, RB Chris Ivory, TE Marcedes Lewis, G Patrick Omameh, LB Paul Posluszny, WR Allen Robinson

Top draft picks: DT Taven Bryan, WR D.J. Clark, S Ronnie Harrison

2018 outlook: Kirk Cousins may not have been within the Jaguars’ reach, but Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater were. The Jags bypassed the unusually deep quarterback market and are entrusting a Super Bowl-caliber defense to Blake Bortles again. While Bortles' extension was a low-end re-up ($18 million per year) for a veteran QB, the contract essentially ensures the maligned passer will be the starter for the next two Jags teams. Non-quarterback-centered contenders’ windows aren’t open as long as the ones created by proven signal-callers, so the Jags — by not signing or drafting any competition for Bortles — are taking a risk that their starter won't wreck this operation’s hopes.

Bortles still doesn’t have too much in the way of skill-position help. Moncrief enjoyed an inconsistent Colts career, and Cole went undrafted out of tiny Kentucky Wesleyan (though he averaged 17.8 yards per catch last season and led the Jags in air yards.) The receiving corps is also without the injured Marqise Lee, and Seferian-Jenkins posted only 357 yards in his resurfacing effort last year. The upgrade from Omameh to Norwell, a 2017 All-Pro, could be massive for Leonard Fournette. Overall, however, this offensive line has issues beyond Norwell and center Brandon Linder.

Fortunately for the Jags’ hopes, their defense returns the core performers chiefly responsible for last season’s rapid rise. Jacksonville paced the league in pass-defense DVOA by a considerable margin and remains flooded with top-tier talents. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye comprise probably the best cornerback tandem there is, and “Sacksonville” cogs Calais Campbell (14.5 sacks), Yannick Ngakoue (12), Malik Jackson (8) and Dante Fowler (8) are all back. Marcell Dareus remains an overqualified supporting-caster, and Bryan adds depth for an already-deep array of attackers.

Are they better or worse than last season? The Jags lost their slot corner (Colvin) and the perennially reliable Posluszny. There’s enough coming back to compensate, and Norwell’s now employed, so perhaps they are a bit better than their 10-win predecessors.

Best-case scenario: Are the Jags closer to the 2015 Broncos or the early Rex Ryan Jets teams? An AFC title is possible, but Bortles may be too much of an albatross even for this defense.

Worst-case scenario: Bortles is so bad Kessler is summoned to action and the Jags — who saw every defensive starter but Telvin Smith play at least 15 games last season and Smith play 14 — can’t keep their defenders healthy. A high-variance team, the Jags could win 12 games or miss the playoffs.   

Record prediction: 10-6

Tennessee Titans

2017 record: 9-7 (second in AFC South)

Key additions: CB Malcolm Butler, ILB Will Compton, LB Kamalei Correa, QB Blaine Gabbert, RB Dion Lewis, S Kendrick Lewis, NT Bennie Logan, OL Kevin Pamphile, OL Xavier Su’a-Filo, S Kenny Vaccaro 

Notable losses: QB Matt Cassel, WR Harry Douglas, DL Karl Klug, CB Brice McCain, RB DeMarco Murray, OL Brian Schwenke, S Da’Norris Searcy, QB Brandon Weeden, OLB Erik Walden, NT Sylvester Williams, ILB Avery Williamson

Top draft picks: LB Rashaan Evans, LB Harold Landry

2018 outlook: Tennessee overachieved last season, trekking to the AFC divisional round despite ranking 18th in DVOA. The Titans gave the keys to Mike Vrabel, he of a year’s worth of coordinator experience (and his Texans defense allowed the NFL’s most points). Matt LaFleur is now the top offensive voice in the building; he's never called NFL plays. An across-the-board regression stunted Marcus Mariota’s growth last season, likely leading to Mike Mularkey and Co.’s ousters. The fourth-year quarterback has a well-designed backfield committee in Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis, and Delanie Walker is one of this era’s biggest NFL success stories. Tennessee’s receiving corps, which will need to see big strides from Corey Davis, and interior offensive line remain questions.

Adoree’ Jackson teams with 2016 Patriots starters Butler and Logan Ryan to form a high-end coverage corps. Tennessee ranked 25th against the pass last season. Butler and Vaccaro, a free agency steal who fared better prior to a down contract year, should strengthen this group. Tennessee’s linebackers enjoyed a nice tenure together, the Williamson-Wesley Woodyard-Brian Orakpo-Derrick Morgan quartet starting for three straight years prior to Williamson's exit. The remaining three are near the end of their primes, but the Titans added a new building block in Evans.

Are they better or worse than last season? Morgan, Rishard Matthews and Jack Conklin are coming off varying knee surgeries. To go along with an unproven coaching staff’s arrival, the Titans may not be as good as the sum of their additions suggests. Mariota’s season will determine if ownership made the right call.

Best-case scenario: Blake Bortles holds the Jaguars back, and the Texans’ stars again struggle to stay on the field. The Titans may have the lowest 2018 ceiling of the AFC South contenders, but they could capitalize — especially if Mariota takes a big leap forward — and steal a division title.

Worst-case scenario: Vrabel is in over his head, and LaFleur’s lack of play-calling experience is evident in a season that sees Tennessee fail to build on its final-eight cameo.

Record prediction: 7-9