2025 Kansas City Chiefs projected win total, prediction

Despite losing Super Bowl LIX 40-22 to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected to be a championship contender again this upcoming season. Per BetMGM, they will win double-digit games for an 11th straight year.

Regular-season win total: 11.5 (BetMGM) 

Outlook: Did the Chiefs fill their roster holes after the Super Bowl loss? 

On March 5, Kansas City dealt 2024 first-team All-Pro offensive lineman Joe Thuney to the Chicago Bears, saving $16M in cap space. The Chiefs used that to re-sign linebacker Nick Bolton (three years, $45M), who had a team-leading 106 tackles in 16 regular-season games in 2024. Aside from that, Kansas City didn't make a splash in free agency. 

The team signed offensive tackle Jaylon Moore to a two-year, $30M contract. However, he may not be a viable replacement for Thuney. According to Pro Football Focus, Moore allowed a career-high 10 pressures in 15 games with the San Francisco 49ers last season. 

In the NFL Draft, the Chiefs selected Ohio State offensive tackle Josh Simmons with pick No. 32. The 22-year-old suffered a season-ending left knee injury in October 2024, but Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has said he should be ready for training camp in July.

The Chiefs didn't make many notable offseason moves, but their core of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, defensive tackle Chris Jones and Reid remains intact. 

Mahomes and Jones are still in their primes. The 29-year-old QB tossed the league's ninth-most touchdown passes (26 in 16 games) last season. Meanwhile, the 30-year-old DT had the league's sixth-most pressures (74 in 15 games), via PFF. 

Kelce — who turns 36 on Oct. 5 — may be slowing. In 16 games last season, he caught three touchdown passes, his lowest figure since his rookie season in 2013. 

If Chiefs second-year wide receiver Xavier Worthy breaks out, that could mitigate concerns about Kelce. Worthy logged 59 receptions for 638 yards and six touchdown catches in 17 games in 2024.

The Chiefs should benefit from an easy schedule. Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, Kansas City has the league's 27th-toughest schedule based on projected win totals.