2025 Las Vegas Raiders projected win total, prediction

After going 4-13 in 2024, oddsmakers don't expect the Las Vegas Raiders to improve much in 2025. Per BetMGM, they'll finish below .500 again this upcoming season.

Regular-season win total: 6.5 (BetMGM) 

Outlook: This offseason, the Raiders fired head coach Antonio Pierce and replaced him with Pete Carroll, who won a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks. 

Carroll has proved he can build a winner, but may face a difficult rebuild in Vegas. The Raiders have missed the playoffs for three straight seasons, posting an 18-33 record during that span.

However, upgrading the most important position should help the coach. On March 7, the Raiders traded for former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, who played for Carroll for four seasons. 

In three seasons as the Seahawks' starting QB, Smith made two Pro Bowls and won the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year. He could boost the Raiders' 13th-ranked passing attack (223.4 YPG), which features second-year tight end Brock Bowers. 

To improve their ground game — which finished last in the league in rushing yards last season (79.8) — the Raiders selected Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty (pick No. 6) in the NFL Draft. 

Jeanty won the 2024 Doak Walker Award as college football's best RB after rushing for 2,601 yards in 14 games, the second most in a season in FBS history. If his success at the college level translates to the NFL, he should help the Raiders create a balanced offense.

Don't be surprised if he does. At OTAs on May 21, Carroll told the media, "[Jeanty is] right on point with everything we're doing."  

The Raiders may have holes on defense. Last season, the unit tied for 25th in the league in points allowed (25.5), despite starring edge-rusher Maxx Crosby.

Raiders defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, who signed a four-year, $110M deal in 2024, played in five games last season because of a left foot injury. At OTAs, Carroll said his rehab has been "difficult," raising concerns.

The Raiders' defensive questions don't bode well in the AFC West, where Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix await twice a year.

Outside of the divisional matchups, the Raiders have a manageable schedule. Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, they have the 18th-toughest schedule based on projected win totals. 

Our take: The Raiders' defense will probably prevent them from making the playoffs in 2025. But with an improved offense, they should hit the over. 

Projected win total: 7