2025 NFL MVP Odds, Betting Trends, Potential Picks

I went over the criteria we’ve seen apply to the Super Bowl-winning team in recent years, and now we’re onto the MVP.

All of the data is via Action Network director of research Evan Abrams. Let’s break down the race with the NFL schedule right in front of us.

NFL MVP Odds

The last four MVP winners entered the season at +1400 or lower. Prior to that, though, five of the six winners had odds of +3000 or higher.

Four players have split the last seven AP MVP awards, but it’s only three for the PFWA version. Aaron Rodgers won in 2020 and 2021, Mahomes in 2018 and 2022 and Lamar Jackson in 2019 and 2023. Josh Allen won the AP MVP in 2024, while Jackson won the PFWA award.

Before those players dominated the conversation, we saw six players win the award in six years. Starting in 2012, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning, Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady won the award.

This year, Jackson and Allen are tied at +550 as the favorites, while Joe Burrow (+650) and Mahomes (+700) aren’t far behind. Jayden Daniels is +750 before there’s a big jump to Jalen Hurts at +1700.

Odds via DraftKings as of May 14 at 7:15 p.m. ET.

Why Super Bowl Odds Matters in MVP

Thirty of the last 37 players to win the NFL MVP Award were on teams with odds that were 30-1 or lower to win the Super Bowl. What that indicates is that it is very, very rare for a player to win the MVP on a team that doesn’t begin the season in the top half of Super Bowl odds.

For reference, there are 14 teams, as of Wednesday afternoon, at +3000 or lower. The cutoff is the Bears, who are +3500.

NFL Win Totals

Along those lines, the last eight MVP winners have been on a team with a preseason win total of 8.5 or higher. Matt Ryan was the last player for that to not be the case with, as the 2016 Falcons had a win total of 7.

Overall, 24 of the last 26 MVP winners have been on teams with a preseason win total of 8.5 or higher.

MVPs Have To Win

The last 12 MVP awards have gone to quarterbacks, and one prerequisite to be seriously considered is wins.

Eleven of those last 12 MVP awards have gone to a quarterback on a team with at least 11 wins. Going one step further, 11 of the 12 teams won 12 or more games.

What Kind of Team Does an MVP Have?

Obviously, since the award has pretty much been taken over by quarterbacks, a strong offense has been key.

Since 1990, the MVP’s team has finished outside of the top 10 in points per game just twice: Peyton Manning in 2008 and Adrian Peterson in 2012. Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win the award.

A top defense, though, isn’t something that a lot of MVPs have. Since 2011, 10 of the 14 MVPs played for a team that finished outside of the top in in points allowed per game.