The best predictor of what will happen is what has already happened. But just because something happened a particular way once or twice — or even several times — doesn’t mean it will happen that way again in the future. 

If that sounds like a headache, welcome to the prediction business. Everyone wants to know the future, but no one knows exactly what’s going to happen. The best most of us can do is make an educated guess. That’s what this column has been for the past few years, going off the idea that in the NFL, where parity is a cherished value, about half the teams in the playoffs should turn over from year to year. 

Historically, that’s proven to be the case over the past 10 years, even after the NFL expanded the playoffs from 12 to 14 teams in 2020. The numbers fluctuate a little year to year, but as a rule, 50 percent turnover holds up well — most of the time:

• 2024: 4 new playoff teams from the previous year
• 2023: 6
• 2022: 7
• 2021: 7
• 2020: 5
• 2019: 5
• 2018: 7
• 2017: 8
• 2016: 6
• 2015: 4
• 2014: 5

You might notice last year stands out a bit. There were just four newcomers to crash the playoff party last year, the lowest since 2015. It’s not a coincidence 2024 was also the starkest gap between the haves and the have-nots in the league in a while. Six teams finished with four or fewer wins, while five had 13 or more. A playoff prediction article based on the idea of 50 percent turnover would not have fared well last year. 

This year’s article isn’t guaranteed to fare any better even with the idea that things should regress to the mean this year. But it’s still an interesting exercise to reveal what’s possible in a topsy-turvy NFL season. Injuries will play a big role in the turnover, especially at the quarterback position. Few teams are positioned to withstand losing their starting quarterback for an extended period of time. For other teams, some red flags stand out heading into the 2025 season — and conversely, some teams seem poised to take advantage. 

2024 NFL Playoff Field
Seed	AFC	NFC
1	Chiefs	Lions
2	Bills	Eagles
3	Ravens	Buccaneers
4	Texans	Rams
5	Chargers	Vikings
6	Steelers	Commanders
7	Broncos	Packers

AFC

Out: Houston Texans

Teams that are strong along the line of scrimmage are usually tough to knock out, while weaknesses in those areas can be tough to overcome. The Texans still made the playoffs last year but failed to live up to preseason Super Bowl hopes because of a leaky offensive line that undercut the whole offense. Those problems overshadowed a defensive line on the other side that was borderline elite and projects to be just as good in 2025. Houston put a lot of effort into fixing the offensive line this offseason but it’s not clear if they got more talented. 

Chemistry and communication were huge issues for the Texans on the offensive line last year, and the starting five had persistent troubles passing off simple stunts late into the year, let alone exotic blitzes. To try and fix that, the Texans jettisoned longtime LT Laremy Tunsil, widely viewed as one of the best at his position in the league, traded former first-round G Kenyon Green and cut veteran G Shaq Mason. They brought in veteran OTs Cam Robinson and Trent Brown, veteran G Laken Tomlinson and used a second-round selection on OL Aireaontae Ersery. 

On paper, that’s not a clear upgrade. Robinson and Brown have each been on multiple teams over the past couple of years and are going to be on the wrong side of 30. Tomlinson was laid off by the Seahawks as part of their offensive line overhaul. Ersery has potential but rookie offensive linemen face a steep learning curve, and it’s not clear if he’ll play guard or tackle. The Texans are moving to more of a power-oriented, smashmouth attack under new OC Nick Caley, so perhaps the goal is to take pressure off the starting five that way and have fewer mental errors than last year’s group. 

Still, this is a glaring Achilles heel for a Texans squad that still has high expectations. 

Out: Pittsburgh Steelers

There’s a contrarian streak in me that wants to like this 2025 version of the Steelers more than it seems the general consensus does. Much of that is driven by immense respect for HC Mike Tomlin and the high competitive floor he brings to the organization. The playoff drought is what it is, and Tomlin isn’t free from culpability for the team’s failure to find a successor to Ben Roethlisberger, but Tomlin has helped keep the Steelers competitive even when they’ve had no business being in the mix. 

I doubt the Steelers bottom out and they’ll probably remain in the mix for a wildcard berth all year. There’s too much talent on the roster. However, I just have a tough time squaring all the different parts of this veteran-laden team into a cohesive vision that can make real noise in the AFC. New QB Aaron Rodgers still had flashes with the Jets last year but he’s a more tentative, brittle version of himself who might not be comfortable taking a back seat in OC Arthur Smith’s run-heavy offense. Smith had issues with QB Russell Wilson audibling out of run plays last year, and Rodgers is infamously more prone to that than Wilson. 

Rodgers is also infamously exacting and detail-oriented with his receivers. His No. 1 WR, blockbuster trade acquisition D.K. Metcalf is…not. How the relationship between those two develops or doesn’t will go a long way toward determining how effective the Pittsburgh aerial attack is. Rodgers isn’t the only source of questions; the offensive line has two young tackles who will need to grow up fast, the secondary is talented but ancient by NFL standards with 34-year-old CB Darius Slay and soon-to-be-31-year-old CB Jalen Ramsey, and safety is a big question mark following the trade of Minkah Fitzpatrick. Add in a brutally competitive division and conference, and it’s tough to get too high on the Steelers heading into 2025. 

In: Jacksonville Jaguars

Some quiet buzz is starting to build around the Jaguars as a sleeper team in 2025, one primed to take a big step forward. A new young, hotshot brain trust will do that. Jaguars HC Liam Coen is fresh off calling plays for Bucs QB Baker Mayfield in a season he threw 41 passing touchdowns, priming big hopes for No. 1 overall QB Trevor Lawrence. Jaguars GM James Gladstone is the youngest front office boss in the league at 34 years old who has already proven himself to be an intellectual quote and a fearless trader, as evidenced by the seismic move for two-way WR/CB Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall in April. 

None of it means anything without wins in the fall to back it up, and the Jaguars have been in this exact spot before as a “team on the rise.” Much will depend on Coen translating his success in Tampa Bay to success with Lawrence, who has obvious talent but has needed to sharpen his decision-making for a few years now. But the Jaguars invested a lot into fortifying the offensive line with two new starters in free agency and they have budding WR Brian Thomas Jr. as the No. 1 threat in what could be a potent offense. There’s some fun young talent to work with on defense as well, including the OLB tandem of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, CB Tyson Campbell, LB Foyesade Oluokun and of course, Hunter. 

The Jaguars also have the advantage of playing in a wide-open AFC South, making their potential path to the postseason an easier one. Rather than run the gauntlet of other AFC wildcard teams, the Jaguars just have to get through the Texans, Colts and Titans. 

In: Cincinnati Bengals

A bet on the Bengals in 2025 is a bet on QB Joe Burrow, one of the handful of elite quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Cincinnati has missed the playoffs for two years in a row now, including one in which Burrow missed significant time with a wrist injury and the other where he led the NFL in yards and touchdowns. It feels like Burrow’s too good to let that stretch to three years in a row if he’s healthy, and for what it’s worth the Bengals have been within a game of the postseason each of the past two years. 

Cincinnati will have to overcome a defense in transition and an offensive line undergoing a miniature makeover. The Bengals are breaking in two new starting guards to try and shore up Burrow’s protection and run the ball more effectively. It could lead to some bumps but that’s unlikely to be a season-sabotaging weakness. The more pressing concern is on defense. The Bengals were 25th in both yards and points allowed last year, and they return largely the same personnel on that side of the ball. 

The two biggest differences right now, for better or worse, are DC Al Golden and possibly DE Trey Hendrickson. Golden takes over for former DC Lou Anarumo and will be charged with running a simpler, more resilient system that gets more out of the current players. He spent last year as the defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, and it’s anyone’s guess how the transition to the NFL will go. Hendrickson — Cincinnati’s best defensive player and one of the best edge rushers in football right now — is engaged in a principled contract standoff that could lead to him missing significant time. That would be a major blow to the unit, perhaps big enough to keep them out of the playoffs after all. 

NFC

Out: Minnesota Vikings

Last year, I thought the Vikings would be a middling team even with HC Kevin O’Connell getting a career best out of QB Sam Darnold. I definitely underestimated what Darnold’s career best could look like, but I also undersold the quality of the roster the Vikings have built, both on offense and defense. 

Perhaps I’m guilty of both again this year, with first-year starter J.J. McCarthy taking over at quarterback following a true redshirt season. In a weird way, I feel like he’s less equipped to hit the ground running than Darnold, given his overall lack of experience, even though Darnold’s career before last year was inauspicious. Minnesota has indicated it’s going to try to rely less on McCarthy and more on the surrounding talent, including a revamped offensive line and running game, but the NFC North is intensely competitive and McCarthy is going to be pushed into some big games in what will essentially be his rookie year. I think it’s fair to expect some bumps. 

As for the defense, the Vikings invested a lot in the line of scrimmage and have DC Brian Flores back for a third year concocting mad schemes. Minnesota finished fifth in scoring defense last year and all the pieces are in place for a similar finish in 2025. Defense is more volatile year to year, however, and there are some potential weak points with aging players who are more prone to injuries and a thin secondary. 

Out: Green Bay Packers

There’s a lot to like about the Packers in 2025. They’re one of the deepest teams in the league and one of the most well-positioned to handle an injury at nearly any position. Packers HC Matt LaFleur is one of the most underrated coaches in the league, in my opinion, and he’s consistently had Green Bay in the win column even when the team has been experiencing transition and injuries at quarterback. 

However, the Packers are more good than great. Their overall depth is better than their top-end talent, and the team has some weaknesses on defense that could hold it back, especially compared to its other division opponents. While the Packers finished eighth in the league in sacks last year, no one player had more than 7.5 and Green Bay was just 16th in pressure percentage. The Packers elected to mostly sit on their hands when it came to improving the pass rush, banking on players already on the roster to take a step forward. 

That move in a vacuum makes some sense given the investment the team has made over the past couple of years, but it’s being paired by a potential step back at cornerback. Green Bay is slated to start the trio of Keisean Nixon, Nate Hobbs and Carrington Valentine at corner after cutting Jaire Alexander this offseason. The depth behind those three is so thin that WR Bo Melton has made the shift over to corner in camp. Pass rush and coverage have to work together, with each group making the job easier for the other. Right now, the Packers are facing the prospect of being average or worse in both areas, which is not good for their contending hopes. 

Out: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have won the NFC South four straight times and I’ve probably picked against them for the last two. Tampa Bay deserves credit for creating stability on top of an NFC South division that for a long time was characterized by having a different champion each season. Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles is well-established as a defensive architect, but he’s hired two straight offensive coordinators who have become the flavor of the month and left for head-coaching jobs (Coen last year, Panthers HC Dave Canales the year before). 

Excluding the Saints, the rest of the NFC South is working hard on narrowing the gap, however. And while the Bucs have finished strong the past two seasons, they haven’t exactly been running away from the competition. They were 4-7 in 2023 before rattling off four straight wins in December and sneaking into the postseason. Last year, they went into their Week 11 bye at 4-6 and rattled off another four wins on the other side in December, ultimately winning the South with a 10-7 record. 

Looking ahead to 2025, Bowles has to stay ahead of the brain drain again with the promotion of former pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. That will keep the terminology and system the same but it remains to be seen if Grizzard has the same feel for play-calling that Coen did. On defense, the Bucs have some major question marks at cornerback and linebacker as they try to improve from what statistically has been a middle-of-the-pack group, even if Bowles gives them a high ceiling in any given week. 

Out: Washington Commanders

There are compelling regression cases to be made for both the Eagles (Super Bowl hangover) and the Lions (replacing both coordinators and turnover on the offensive line). Meanwhile, Washington is going to be one of the most popular Super Bowl picks going into this year after last season’s Cinderella run to the NFC title game. 

Still, I think the magic of last year could have overshadowed how much actual progress in rebuilding the new regime has made. There were holes littered all over the roster and new GM Adam Peters has been busy trying to fix as many as possible. The breakout of QB Jayden Daniels has emboldened him to be aggressive and swing trades for veterans like CB Marshon Lattimore, Tunsil and WR Deebo Samuel. The jury is out on Tunsil and Samuel — and it shouldn’t be glazed over that both their prior teams were willing to move on — but the trade for Lattimore was a major flop last year. The veteran corner will have a chance to try and redeem himself this year, otherwise that could end up being an expensive whiff. 

Signing DE Von Miller gives the Commanders much-needed pass rush help, as Miller still has juice in a situational role, but overall, the team does not stack up to most recent contenders on both sides of the line of scrimmage at this point. The edge rusher group is underwhelming for a supposed Super Bowl hopeful, and there are some questions along the offensive line as well with some young players stepping into starting roles like first-round OT Josh Conerly and 2024 third-round OL Brandon Coleman. The same is true in the secondary, with some intriguing young players like CB Mike Sainristil and second-round CB Trey Amos who might need to work through some growing pains. 

At the end of the day, Daniels was so good as a rookie that it buys this team some margin for error. Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury also looked rejuvenated last year after being viewed as a major question mark. Both will have to make sure they stay ahead of the curve after opponents spent a whole offseason planning ways to slow down the Washington offense. The interesting thing is that Daniels could easily be better than last year, but if the rest of the roster doesn’t punch above its weight like it did in 2024, the Commanders’ overall record could be worse. 

In: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers feel like a reliable bet to return to their status as a dangerous team in the NFC, and Vegas agrees. San Francisco’s betting line was 10.5 games back in June, one of the highest marks of any team. There are a few reasons for that. One, the 49ers project to be a lot healthier in 2024 than in 2023. Star RB Christian McCaffrey and LT Trent Williams should both be back, and WR Brandon Aiyuk should make a return at some point during the season even though he’ll be rehabbing a torn ACL. Two, San Francisco gets to play both the AFC and NFC South, possibly the two weakest divisions in football, on top of a last-place schedule due to last year’s finish (they play the Giants and Browns as opposed to the Rams who get the Eagles and Ravens). 

Three, the 49ers just still have a lot of good football players, even with some of the notable departures this offseason. They’ve got cornerstones like DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner and TE George Kittle, some ascending youngsters like G Dominick Puni and WR Ricky Pearsall, and of course freshly-paid QB Brock Purdy, who probably is better than he gets credit for in some circles. San Francisco will need to navigate real questions on the offensive line, defensive tackle and at linebacker but they’re in a great spot to pile up some wins and return to the postseason. 

In: Chicago Bears

The Bears have trapped many a sportswriter with the allure of things finally being different in Chicago. Famous last words, but it does feel like it might be different this time. New HC Ben Johnson brings an outstanding track record from his time in Detroit coordinating three straight top-five offenses. Being a head coach is different than being an offensive coordinator, but so far Johnson’s message of attention to detail and competitiveness seems to be exactly what this offense needs. 

It also seems to be exactly what Bears QB Caleb Williams needs after surviving a miserable first season in Chicago. The former No. 1 overall pick still has supreme talent; the hope is Johnson can help him harness and channel it. There’s no shortage of skill position talent to work with either, but the most important moves the Bears made this offseason might have been overhauling the offensive line. They traded for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signed C Drew Dalman in free agency, immediately giving the interior of the offensive line a massive facelift. If Johnson’s history in Detroit is any indication, that will be the identity of the team. 

On the other side of the ball, Bears DC Dennis Allen has a strong track record and a fair amount of talent to work with as well. There really are a ton of reasons for optimism. The competitiveness of the NFC North and the whole acclimation period the new staff will require does provide a dose of reality check, but if Johnson is the real deal and can get Williams playing like a former No. 1 pick, this could easily be a playoff team. 

In: Atlanta Falcons

If the Buccaneers lose their grip on the NFC South, one of the other three teams will have to take the crown from them. The Saints are rebuilding, the Panthers are looking frisky but in reality are probably still a year away from being a real factor, so that leaves the Falcons. Atlanta is a wildcard given the decision to turn to 2024 first-round QB Michael Penix Jr, whose three starts late last year had both good and bad moments that have left most people unsure of what to make of the Falcons this year. 

Inside the building, the confidence is irrationally high, but to be fair to the Falcons, they do have some reason to be thinking playoffs. The talent around Penix on offense is solid. Falcons WR Drake London and RB Bijan Robinson are two of the top young skill position talents in the league right now, and TE Kyle Pitts is still there on the final year of his rookie deal looking to recapture the record-breaking promise of his first season. The offensive line is strong even after losing Dalman. It’ll be interesting to see how OC Zac Robinson changes his approach with Penix as opposed to veteran QB Kirk Cousins last year. Cousins had his faults but Robinson got away with less than his fair share of the blame for how things deteriorated, as he failed to adjust or add wrinkles at times. 

Atlanta’s defense was bad last year but they’ve invested a lot into trying to rectify that, including two first-round picks into the front seven to try and spark an anemic pass rush. New DC Jeff Ulbrich also has a strong track record from his time with the Jets, though it’s unclear whether he or DC Raheem Morris will wield more schematic influence. Either way, the Falcons are hoping the defense can be at least average and possibly better. If that happens and they’re in the top ten on offense, the playoffs are definitely within reach. This is a team that swept the Buccaneers last season after all, even if they lost their grip on the division down the stretch. 

In: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are an easy team to hate, and I’ve heard enough from owner Jerry Jones to last two lifetimes. Much of the success the organization has experienced over the past couple of decades has happened in spite of him, or because he accidentally backed into finding franchise quarterbacks in undrafted free agency (Tony Romo) or the fourth round (Dak Prescott). 

That dynamic can lead to the Cowboys getting a smidge underrated at times, and that could be the case entering 2025. The hire of HC Brian Schottenheimer is easy to clown as Jones thumbing his nose at the idea of needing a big-time coach. It wasn’t an inspired hire and the process is indefensible, but put all that aside and Schottenheimer may actually have some positive traits that could lead to him becoming a better head coach than a coordinator (though he’ll also still call the plays). 

Dallas has a history of being strong on the offensive line and could reach that standard in 2024 with a couple of breaks. Prescott has great weapons to throw to between WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens plus TE Jake Ferguson. On defense, the Cowboys will always have a chance to be solid as long as they have DE Micah Parsons, a player capable of winning Defensive Player of the Year in the near future. How new DC Matt Eberflus manages weaknesses at linebacker and cornerback will determine what the unit’s ceiling ends up being. 

Assuming Schottenheimer is better than expected — and the spotty history of forecasting head coaching hires suggests there’s a solid chance of this — the Cowboys could be real factors in the NFC East when most have chalked the division up to a race between Philadelphia and Washington.