We’re a month into the college football season and most teams have played four games. That’s enough data to sift through the noise and start drawing some trend lines, making note of how NFL prospects are playing. We can begin setting aside our priors based on last year and focus more on how they’ve played so far this year, for better or worse.

Today I’m checking in with an update on how next year’s quarterback class is beginning to shape up. I had seven quarterbacks in my summer Top 50 Big Board. Today, I have updated projections on all of those passers, as well as three new names who are making some noise in the class. For all of them, I noted whether they are stock up, stock neutral, or stock down, and where they are trending to be taken in April’s draft.

These prospects aren’t listed in any particular order, so don’t think it reflects an updated ranking of mine. If you’re a fan of an NFL team that needs a new quarterback or you’re just interested in how these draft classes transform throughout the season, this article is for you.

Stock Up: John Mateer, Oklahoma

A transfer from Washington State who became a draft darling over the summer, Mateer was a three-star recruit who spent his freshman season backing up current Titans first-round QB Cam Ward. When Ward transferred to Miami last year, Mateer exploded onto the scene, throwing for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns and rushing for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns. So far in 2025, he’s been better in practically every metric, throwing for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns with three interceptions on a 67.4-percent completion rate. He’s added 190 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

Mateer was an exciting player last year at Washington State, but the question with him was always whether his playing style would translate to the SEC. So far, so good. His big-time throw rate of 4.7 percent is right where you want it to be and his 2.5-percent turnover-worthy play rate is in an acceptable range, especially for someone who attempts the kinds of throws Mateer does.

The current Heisman favorite, Mateer thrives under pressure. He picks defenses apart if they sit back and allow him to, but he punishes defenses when they blitz, too. Mateer’s mastery of off-platform, alternate arm angle throws gives him a ton of versatility in his releases, which he uses to beat the rush and find receivers in tight windows. I’ve been extremely impressed with how Mateer’s handled the jump in competition and he’s trending towards being a first-round pick.

Stock Up: Jayden Maiava, USC

A three-star high school recruit, Maiava committed to UNLV and redshirted initially before taking over as the starter as a redshirt freshman in 2023. He threw for 3,085 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, adding 277 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. A coveted player in the 2024 transfer portal cycle, Maiava transferred to USC where he sat behind Miller Moss for most of the year. Now the unquestioned starter, he has 989 passing yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions on a 68.6 percent completion rate, plus two rushing touchdowns.

My favorite of the new names I’m bringing to the table today, Maiava is off to a hot start this year. He’s big, athletic and accurate — a fantastic combination. With exceptional pocket awareness and a miniscule sack rate, he has the rare ability to extend plays with his legs without inviting extra pressure. He’s got a rocket arm but tempers it with a feather touch as needed, dropping dimes deep downfield and hitting his marks over the middle.

If there’s one criticism of Maiava’s game, it’s that his mechanics can get a little sloppy at times, leading to odd misses when you least expect them. But there really isn’t much else to nitpick. He has a high big-time throw rate, creates chunk plays without putting the ball in harm’s way, and almost never takes negative plays. Maiava’s a fast riser on my board and could work his way into the first round.

Stock Down: Arch Manning, Texas

Nephew of Peyton and Eli, grandson of Archie, and a consensus No. 1 recruit out of high school, Manning entered the year with a ton of hype as an expected Heisman contender and potential No. 1 pick. He redshirted a year before backing up Quinn Ewers at Texas last year, getting two starts and some occasional mop-up duties. He totaled 939 passing yards and nine touchdowns as well as 108 rushing yards and four scores. So far this year, he’s completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 888 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Manning also has 123 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

It’s safe to say Manning hasn’t lived up to expectations this year. He looked so poised and complete in his two starts last year, but it’s been a rocky four games to start the 2025 campaign, to say the least. He played extremely well against Sam Houston State in Week 4, but had an awful game the week before against UTEP. I expect we will see much more of that throughout the season, as Manning continues to adjust — inconsistencies will be a constant.

The incredible plays are still there. Manning showcases why he’s such an alluring prospect every week. His 7.2-percent big-time throw rate is top-tier, but his 4.9-percent turnover-worthy play rate is far too high. He avoids sacks well but still holds onto the ball too long, showing some indecision, particularly over the middle of the field. Really, he still has a ways to go, and it’s increasingly unlikely he enters the draft after this season.

Stock Up: Darian Mensah, Duke

A surprise college football standout last season at Tulane, Mensah was a three-star recruit who won the starting job in the spring after his redshirt season. While he started as the fourth-string quarterback, his impressive tools and grasp of the intricacies of the position forced the staff to start him. He threw for 2,723 yards and 22 touchdowns, and he’s been even more impressive now that he’s playing in the ACC. Mensah has 1,305 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions so far in 2025 with a 67.3 completion percentage, proving he belongs at this level.

I was a big Mensah guy over the summer, and despite his scintillating start to the season, I still seem to be ahead of consensus on him. He has elite 90.0+ PFF passing grades to all levels of the field, with exceptional accuracy numbers. His 6.3-percent big-time throw rate highlights his high-level arm talent, and with a 2.9-percent turnover-worthy play rate, there’s nothing to be concerned about there.

While Mensah isn’t a runner, he navigates the pocket extremely well, extending plays and making some ridiculous throws on the move. His tape this year at Duke showcases some even more insane off-platform throws than he had at Tulane, contorting his body to avoid defenders and deliver absolute dots down the field. He hasn’t graded out well under pressure, mostly because of some fumbles where he loses awareness of the backside defender closing in on him while trying to make a play. Mensah needs to clean that up, no question, but his tape is that of a surefire first-round quarterback in my eyes. No one’s had a better start to the season from a draft stock perspective in this class.

Stock Neutral: LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

A former three-star recruit who won the starting job as a redshirt freshman last year, Sellers is one of the most fun players in this class to watch. A 6-3, 240-pound tank of a quarterback, he threw for 2,534 yards and 18 touchdowns, rushing for 674 yards and seven touchdowns as well. In 2025, he has 733 passing yards and four touchdowns to one interception with a 64.4 percent completion rate. It should be noted that he missed most of South Carolina’s Week 3 game against Vanderbilt after suffering a concussion.

Defenses are keying in on Sellers as a rushing threat this year, as he has just 17 rushing yards and one touchdown through four (really three) games. It’s forcing Sellers to stay in the pocket and beat defenses with his arm, which has had mixed results. When throwing deep, Sellers excels, showcasing pinpoint accuracy and the arm to effortlessly toss it past lurking safeties — as his 7.6-percent big-time throw rate would suggest. However, his 4.0-percent turnover-worthy play rate is too high, and his astonishing 31.6-percent pressure-to-sack rate is unplayably bad at the next level.

The truth is, Sellers is largely the same player he was a year ago, at least so far. We have a ways to go yet in college football, but he hasn’t shown the growth many anticipated. Even if his scouting report doesn’t change, he’s likely to go top 50 just off traits and his developing skills alone, and he’s not out of the first-round discussion yet. If he wants to be a top 10 pick, he likely needs to show a little more down-to-down consistency the rest of the way.

Stock Up: Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Originally a Yale commit before Cal offered him last-minute, Mendoza redshirted initially before working his way up the depth chart, earning the starting role midway through his redshirt freshman season. He broke out as a sophomore, throwing for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. Now with the Hoosiers, Mendoza has taken his game to another level, with 975 passing yards and 14 touchdowns with no interceptions through four games.

Mendoza’s arm talent jumps off the tape whenever you watch him. He’s got an NFL arm and he puts some zip on his passes when he needs to. You can see this when he drives the ball up the seams or hits out-routes on the opposite sidelines — he just throws it differently. I’ve also been impressed with Mendoza’s decision-making at Indiana. At Cal, he was much more of a boom-or-bust player, with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. He’s gotten that under control this year.

It’s not that Mendoza is immobile, but he’s a pocket passer. The offense he’s running right now isn’t the offense he’ll be running in the NFL, and I have some questions about how much will translate. Currently, he’s running a lot of RPO concepts and schemed downfield throws that don’t ask him to go through progressions. His traits are first-round caliber and if the draft were today he might be a top 10 pick, but there’s still a question as to how much this will translate, much like with Jaxson Dart last year.

Stock Down: Cade Klubnik, Clemson

A five-star recruit who stepped into Clemson’s starting spot as a sophomore, Klubnik put up 3,639 passing yards and 36 touchdowns to go with 463 rushing yards and another seven scores. He was the ACC Championship Game MVP and entered 2025 as one of the Heisman favorites, but it hasn’t gone well for him so far. He’s only completing 60 percent of his passes, with a total of 996 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions so far.

Clemson as a whole has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country to start the season, and Klubnik is not immune from criticism in that. He’s still getting the ball out quickly, avoiding sacks, and keeping the ball out of harm’s way, but it hasn’t led to the production he’s had in prior years. The Tigers’ offense is sluggish, and while top WR Antonio Williams missing the bulk of the season thus far is certainly part of it, Klubnik hasn’t been the same player he was in years past.

It’s unfortunate, but Klubnik is trending towards being a Day 3 selection at this point. He’s an undersized quarterback with an average NFL arm at best. His ticket to being a first-round pick was precision accuracy, quick decision-making and keeping the offense on schedule. He’s regressed in a major way in those areas from the last season.

Stock Neutral: Drew Allar, Penn State

A two-year starter who almost declared a year ago, Allar entered his senior season with some hefty expectations. He had a breakout year in 2024, totaling 3,327 passing yards and 24 touchdowns and adding 302 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. In 2025 in just three games, he has 626 passing yards with four touchdowns and a pick at a 64.8-percent completion rate.

It’s been a bit of an uninspiring start to the year for Allar. Everyone wanted him to take a step forward into the category of “truly great” this year, which just hasn’t happened yet. But his stats are a little misleading due to some truly horrendous luck on deep passes. He only has 73 yards on deep throws despite having an average depth of target of 9.2 yards. For whatever reason, Allar hasn’t connected deep that much yet, but everything else on his resume looks great.

Allar’s been a killer over the middle of the field and on out routes, with an elite 91.1 PFF passing grade on intermediate throws. His 2.0-percent turnover-worthy play rate is in keeping with Allar’s good habits from previous seasons, and his 2.71-second average time to throw is plenty quick enough. Watching the film, his lack of deep passing success looks a bit noisy, rather than a real concern. If it continues, we’ll have to revisit it, but I expect those numbers to bounce back. For Allar, the first real test of his season comes on Saturday against Oregon, and that’s when his draft showcase really starts.

Stock Neutral: Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

A four-star high school recruit who got his chance to start in his fourth year in the program, Nussmeier was instant offense last year. At 6-2, 200 pounds, he’s a bit undersized, but he’s not shy. With 4,052 passing yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024, Nussmeier was one of the most productive passers in the SEC, and he’s keeping on that path in 2025. So far this season, he has 962 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions on a 68.6-percent completion rate.

I say Nussmeier’s stock is neutral, but I don’t mean that as a bad thing. Had he declared a year ago, he almost certainly would’ve been the second quarterback off the board. He didn’t need to show exceptional growth to be a first-round pick. So while he hasn’t shown something majorly different than he did last season, he’s still in solid first-round pick territory.

Nussmeier’s scouting report reads similarly to the one I wrote over the summer, just a little bit better in every sense. With a 2.51-second average time to throw, he’s reading defenses and making lightning-quick decisions with the football. He carves up the middle of the field, shredding defenses deep and on in-cuts in the intermediate range. One of the big improvements Nussmeier has made this year is bringing down his turnover-worthy play rate to 2.6 percent, while keeping his eye-catching big-time throw rate up at 7.5 percent. He’s not a rushing threat and can struggle under pressure, but when he’s kept clean, he’s an offensive coordinator’s dream.

Stock Up(?): Dante Moore, Oregon

A five-star high school recruit who committed to UCLA, Moore struggled mightily as a true freshman. He had 1,610 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions before he was benched, transferring to Oregon after the season. He backed up Dillon Gabriel last year and took over as the starter in 2025. So far, he has 962 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to just one interception in 2025.

I put a question mark next to stock up for Moore simply because Oregon hasn’t played anyone noteworthy yet. They will on Saturday against Penn State, and we’ll get a better idea of how much Moore really has improved since his freshman season. Against lesser competition, Moore’s been exceptionally accurate, with a high big-time throw rate (6.9 percent) and low turnover-worthy play rate (0.9 percent). He pushes the ball downfield and avoids sacks like a pro, getting the ball out on time and executing the offense.

On tape, Moore’s release mechanics and pocket presence look worlds better than they did at UCLA. His accuracy is a major plus now, a sharp reversal from his days in Los Angeles. Moore is a largely immobile pocket passer with plus arm talent and touch down the field, but he still shows concerning habits under pressure and can get a bit wild when the play breaks down. Again, we’ll have to see what he looks like against stiffer competition.