The Washington Commanders face their biggest test of the 2024 season when they travel 30 miles up I-95 for a showdown with the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens, who posted the best record in the AFC last year before succumbing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, ride a three-game winning streak into the matchup. The Commanders have won four straight. It has reached the point to which NBC reportedly wanted to flex the game into their national Sunday night slot, but CBS was unwilling to give it up.
Who would have thought that could happen to the Commanders?
To come out of M&T Bank Stadium with a win, the Commanders will have to be on top of their game. Baltimore has quality up and down its lineup. It has explosive players on offense and a tough-as-nails defense.
Even though future Pro Football Hall of Fame kicker Justin Tucker is off to a slow start, the Ravens almost always have an edge when it comes to special teams play. They have stability throughout the organization. There are no holes to exploit.
We worried that the Commanders would be overmatched on the road against a talented and desperate Cincinnati Bengals team in Week 3. We worried that they would have trouble traveling cross country to face a resurgent Arizona Cardinals squad. We worried about how their dynamic young quarterback would match up against the first elite defense he would have to face in the Cleveland Browns.
The team has met every challenge. Will they be able to do it again on Sunday in Baltimore? If so, they will need to solve these three problems.
The Washington Commanders' defense must come up big against one of the best runners in the league. Derrick Henry is going to Canton when he is done playing. But based on how he has looked so far in 2024, the 30-year-old is far from being done.
It is his first season with the Ravens after eight years with the Tennessee Titans. Baltimore is still figuring out how to best mesh his skills with those of quarterback Lamar Jackson. Despite some adjustment pains, Henry currently leads the league with 572 yards on the ground. He also leads the league with six rushing touchdowns.
Despite his age and 247-pound frame, Henry is averaging six yards per carry. He also has the longest run from scrimmage in the NFL this year - an 87-yard scamper against the Buffalo Bills in Week 4.
Henry can beat a defense in a lot of different ways, and Baltimore is content to pound away early in the hopes that he will dominate a worn-out defense late. I can’t recall a back at his age and at his size remaining so effective since the glory days of John Riggins.
Until the Browns game, Washington had not been good against the run. Especially against strong inside runners. Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Bobby Wagner, and Frankie Luvu will have to play big to contain Henry. However, given the Ravens’ propensity for wearing out opposing defenses over 60 minutes, it will be equally important that rotational players Phidarian Mathis and Johnny Newton play well.
Mathis showed signs of life against the Browns. He and Newton need to continue that against Baltimore.
These are the two best rushing teams in the league thus far. By a wide margin.
The Washington Commanders rank second in total yards, fourth in yards-per-rushing-attempt, first in rushing touchdowns, and first - by a mile - in expected points from rushing. A large part of that has come from Jayden Daniels’ off-script running plays. It seems that every game, he will avoid a possible sack and turn it into a huge chunk play with his legs.
Beyond the quarterback, Washington has had three running backs perform at a very high level. Brian Robinson Jr. has continued in his workhorse role, averaging 4.5 yards per carry through mostly tough inside runs. Behind him, both Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols have provided outstanding support.
Ekeler has made several big plays both as a runner and pass-catcher, averaging a remarkable 7.9 yards per carry. McNichols is also averaging over seven yards per carry and has an astonishing three touchdowns on just 16 runs. They have been helped by significantly improved interior offensive line play. Kliff Kingsbury’s dynamic play-calling is taking full advantage of what Daniels can do to keep defenses from becoming overly aggressive.
All of that will need to be on display against the Baltimore Ravens because they have been excellent this season at stopping the run. They are first in the league in total rushing yards allowed and yards per carry conceded. So far, they have allowed opposing offenses to average 3.1 yards per run.
Their three massive defensive lineman - Trent Jones, Michael Pierce, and Nnamdi Madubuike with a combined weight of 1,000 pounds) - make it very difficult for offensive lines to open holes. Linebacker Roquan Smith - a younger version of Bobby Wagner - and safety Kyle Hamilton are among the best in the league in run support.
The Commanders need to block and run, and not abandon the strategy that has worked for them if they face some early adversity.
Kyle Van Noy has been around for a long time. He has played on five different teams. He is coming up on 150 career games. He has been a good player. He has never been a great player. Until he arrived with the Baltimore Ravens last year.
Before signing with the Ravens, Van Noy had played in 128 NFL games and had recorded 33.5 sacks. That works out to about one sack every four games. Not awful numbers, but not exactly world-beating by any stretch of the imagination.
In 19 games with the Ravens, he has 15 sacks. Somehow, at 33 years old, this middle-of-the-road journeyman has increased his career sack production fourfold. He trails Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions - a favorite for NFL Defensive Player of the Year - by a half-sack for the league lead.
That’s not all Van Noy is doing. He has been a disruptive force on defense all season. In addition to his sacks, he leads the league in tackles-for-loss with eight. The Washington Commanders’ own Bobby Wagner is in third place on that list with six.
His production through the first month of the 2024 season earned him AFC Defensive Player of the Month in September. Van Noy has proven to be the perfect playmaking complement to the steady base provided by Baltimore’s stalwart defensive line and fellow linebacker Roquan Smith.
If the Commanders don’t account for Van Noy, he will make big plays against them.
The Commanders have all these problems without even mentioning reigning NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. That's the monumental task awaiting Washington this weekend.
Containing Jackson is always job No. 1 when facing the Ravens, but every fan knows that already. Besides, Washington’s defense may be better suited to dealing with a player of his caliber than they ever have been since they now must work against the second coming of him every day in practice.
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