3 Reasons The Bucs Might Surprise In 2023

Yes, Tom Brady is gone. And yes, over the course of the last couple of offseasons, some big pieces of Tampa Bay’s 2020 and 2021 teams have departed via free agency or retirement. But the Bucs roster is still full of talent — and a lot of it is young talent.

There’s a question at quarterback — and that’s obviously a big one in this league. But Tampa Bay has nine players who have been to a Pro Bowl in wide receiver Mike Evans (four), Tristan Wirfs (two), outside linebacker Shaq Barrett (two), linebacker Lavonte David (one, but should be more), linebacker Devin White (one), nose tackle Vita Vea (one), safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (one), center Ryan Jensen (one) and wide receiver Chris Godwin (one).

The Bucs have one of the best wide receiver duos in the league in Evans and Godwin, as well as some top-tier pieces on the offensive line in Wirfs and Jensen. There are some players with breakout potential on the offense as well, with running back Rachaad White and tight end Cade Otton both looking to take the next step in their second NFL seasons.

On defense, the Bucs have Vea manning the interior while being flanked by two exciting (albeit unproven) youngsters in Logan Hall and Calijah Kancey. There’s more depth off the edge than there’s been in a long time, thanks in large part to the selection of Louisville’s YaYa Diaby in the third round of the draft. David and White are one of the top linebacker duos in the NFL, and the cornerback duo of Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean is formidable in its own right. As is the safety tandem of Winfield and free agent addition Ryan Neal.

The cupboard isn’t bare for the Bucs, and there are plenty of pieces here to put something together.

Dave Canales Is A Breath Of Fresh Air

While Tampa Bay had plenty of problems last year as it stumbled to an 8-9 division title season and a first-round playoff exit, former offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich was near the top of the list. He was fired at the end of the season, and after a long search, in came former Seahawks quarterbacks coach Dave Canales. And although Canales is a first-time play caller, he’s already looking and feeling like a massive upgrade who is going to impact the Bucs in a big way this season.

Gone is the complicated — and frankly outdated — Bruce Arians/Leftwich system. Tampa Bay will be running a new system under Canales, one that has been modeled after that of the Rams and has been successful in Los Angeles, Seattle and all over the league in recent years.

Instead of simply relying on his players to out-talent the defense, Canales will scheme receivers open. He’ll create running lanes for his running back. He’ll ask his quarterback to move and throw on the run. And he’ll call high-percentage passing plays that are quick and effective. What those quick throws also do is help the offensive line, as those guys don’t have to hold their blocks for nearly as long as they did in an Arians/Leftwich scheme that called for a lot of long-developing, downfield plays.

And Canales won’t scoff at analytics — he’ll actually use them. 

This is a very quarterback-friendly offense, so whether it’s Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask running it this fall, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Tampa Bay improve on last year’s sporadic effectiveness on the offensive side of the ball. The Bucs are still learning the ins and outs of this system, but once they get it down and start running it as it’s designed to be run, the questions about this team’s offense may begin to clear up.

It’s difficult to say the Buccaneer offense will be better without the greatest quarterback of all time. Going from Brady to anyone is bound to be a downgrade. But Canales figures to be an upgrade over Leftwich, and he appears to be budding star who has it in him to soften the loss of Brady by running a more efficient and modernized offense in Tampa Bay.

The NFC South Is Still There For The Taking

The Bucs won the NFC South in 2022 with an 8-9 record. The Panthers, Saints and Falcons all finished a game behind Tampa Bay at 7-10. And while each team in the division has made some improvements this offseason to keep building toward the future, the standings could look something like that again in 2023.

The uncertainty in Tampa Bay is well documented, but reports of the team’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. The Bucs can still compete in this division and they can still win it, grabbing the playoff spot and home playoff game that come with it.

The Saints did bring in Derek Carr to improve their offense, but the defensive line lost some key pieces and there will always be skepticism about No. 1 receiver Michael Thomas returning to form — at least until he can prove capable of staying on the field.

The Falcons continued to build this offseason and have the division’s best backfield with 2022 1,000-yard rusher Tyler Allgeier and 2023 first-round pick Bijan Robinson. But Atlanta still has Desmond Ridder at quarterback and he’s far from a sure thing at this stage. And there are still areas where Arthur Smith’s team needs to improve.

Carolina underwent a regime change this offseason and will take the field with a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young. The Panthers surprised in 2022, but they still have a long way to go themselves. They look to have a bright future, but it’s fair to question whether that will begin this year. It’ll likely take time.

The Saints are bound to be the NFC South favorite right now, but this isn’t a strong division. Any team can realistically win it and between the Bucs’ talent, their new offensive scheme and the strength of their defense, it could be them finishing on top for the third straight season.