49ers draft strategy: Why college production matters more than traits

In every draft, there are prospects with great "measurables." Some of those are significant. For instance, long arms are useful for a defensive back. As speed would be, also. The 3-cone drill can tell you something about a running back's elusiveness, and it might be more important than his 40-yard dash time.

But there is something more important than any of these: success. One thing we know for sure. The players every prospect will go up against in the pros will almost all be better than the players they went up against in college.

What that means is if a player had little success in college, it is questionable if he will suddenly start dominating in the pros. If that defensive back gave up receptions on 72% of the times he was targeted, why would he suddenly be a shut-down defensive back in the NFL? I want to know how many passes defensed he had. (PDs often say more than interceptions because the lack of the latter might be because quarterbacks didn't throw his way that much.) I don't care about his arm length or 40 time without that. Don't argue that he can be "coached up."

If an edge rusher played three or four years in college and never had more than two sacks each season—against players who will not be drafted or who might be backups—why would he suddenly have seven or eight in the pros, against the stars in college who are now stronger and more polished?

I want to know how many sacks an offensive tackle gave up each season. Did he improve from year to year?

I want to know a quarterback's completion percentage, a receiver's yards after catch, and number of drops.

I want to know how many times a linebacker missed a tackle.

We all have heard commentators go on and on about a quarterback's hand size. How many times did he actually fumble in college? Scouts get all up in arms over a quarterback's height. Offensive linemen are often well over 6'5" in college, and some defensive linemen are, too. But the NFL QB who led the league in passes batted down? The 6'5" Josh Allen.

The 49ers are lucky Brock Purdy is only 6'1". If he had been 6'4", he would probably have gone in the third round. One scout said Russell Wilson would have been a top 15 pick but for his height.

I have always thought that if I were an owner, I would certainly have questioned my general manager, and if drafting a quarterback were a possibility, I would ask what was good about him. If the general manager's first thing was his build, I would say we aren't drafting him. No way.

Quarterbacks need good arms, accuracy, a quick release, and toughness. They need to be good decision makers and good leaders. If the first thing that comes to mind is the player's size, he can't be that good. How many quarterbacks were of average or even diminutive height but lit up the league? (Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Fran Tarkenton. Tony Romo and Ken Anderson were barely 6'2".) How many quarterback busts looked good in pads? Jim Druckenmiller, Jamarcus Russell ... too many to count.

The 49ers will likely take an offensive tackle, wide receiver, or edge rusher in the first round this week. I don't care if a receiver has long arms, which are good in contested catches. I want to know how many contested catches he made in college. I don't care what 40 time an offensive tackle had. How many penalties did he commit?

Here are some phrases I do not want to hear about whomever we draft this year:

... has great traits ...
... when he's healthy ...
... has all the tools to ...
... when he puts it all together ...
... with the right coaching ...

Here is what I do want to hear:

... always seems to be in the right place at the right time ...
... plays his best when the game is on the line ...
... makes everyone around him better ...
... more productive every year ...
... game never too big for him ...

It's a cliché to say no one knows if an NFL prospect will be great or not. And it's a cliché that you can't measure intangibles.

But you can chart production. If you look at the great players in the NFL, you can be pretty sure they were productive in college.

Let's hope John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan remember that.