
Even though the Denver Broncos forced five turnovers against the Buffalo Bills, it was a rough day for the defense overall. The Bills scored on all six drives that didn't end in a turnover.
The takeaways were great, but the Broncos' inability to force a punt is somewhat concerning, although Josh Allen isn't an easy matchup for any defense, especially in a single-elimination playoff game.
However, the New England Patriots are a team that can force turnovers, especially with the pressure they can apply upfront. Drake Maye, as good as he is, led the NFL in fumbles and put the ball on the ground multiple times against the Houston Texans last week.
Broncos Pro Bowl outside linebacker Nik Bonitto forced two fumbles on Josh Allen, including a strip-sack, and could be a force once again against New England. Will Campbell was a good draft pick for the Patriots at left tackle, but he has been a weak link over their last few games, and Bonitto is primed for an impactful game.
Not only Bonitto, but Broncos' defensive linemen John Franklin-Myers, Zach Allen, and Malcolm Roach could have a big game as pass rushers. Denver will also need outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper to bounce back after struggling for the past several weeks.
When the Broncos create pressure on May, their coverage unit cannot let them down. The Broncos must cut down on their busted coverages and miscommunications. In that Bills game, the Broncos were getting solid pressure, but the coverage couldn’t hold up.
There were times when that was the case for Maye and the Patriots against the Texans. Maye is a good quarterback, and he knows how to find the soft spot against the blitz. He was one of the NFL's best quarterbacks against the blitz in every statistical category during the season.
The Broncos have thrived off blitzing all season long, but they may need to dial it back against the Patriots and do a better job of getting home with four rushers. The Broncos have the talent to do so and still get after the quarterback with four, ranking third in pressures and second in pressure rate this season without blitzing.
Unfortunately, the Patriots were also a great passing offense when they weren’t facing a blitz. They were still in the top five in almost every statistical and analytical category.
Still, the Patriots' production without a blitz saw a slight drop-off from what they did against it, but they haven't faced many defenses like the Broncos' this season. The Texans and Los Angeles Chargers are the closest, so it's worth focusing more on the Patriots' past two games rather than the regular season.
In the playoffs, Maye and the Patriots still did well against the blitz, but their play against non-blitzes took a tumble. The Broncos need to look at what the Texans and Chargers did, and use what worked for those defenses against Maye.
Maye ranks top three against man and zone coverages, but there was more defensive success against him when teams ran zone than when they did man. It's only a slight difference, and the key to defensive success really lies in getting home with the pressure up front and speeding up Maye's process.
This is a tough matchup for the Broncos, and not only because of Maye. The Patriots' rushing offense isn’t great, but it has improved since running back Rhamondre Stevenson returned, and his physical style directly attacks the Broncos' lingering tackling issues.
Denver has to play cleaner defense, force some punts for this offense, and generate takeaways. The Broncos will need to play at the level they did in the first 10 weeks of the season and bounce back from the rough, inconsistent unit they’ve been since then.
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