Advanced Stats Illustrate Critics Are Wrong About Broncos CB Riley Moss

Is it more than one play? Well, the tape suggests it is more than one play, but not to the extent where Moss has been a liability this season. There is a reasonable argument to make that Moss has been the best player in the Broncos' secondary. 

While I am unable to break down every single one of Moss’ 202 snaps one-by-one, there is plenty of data that we can turn to and get a better idea, so let's do so to figure out whether the vitriol toward him is deserved or not. 

What the Advanced Metrics Say

Starting with NFL Pro Stats, Moss has played 125 coverage snaps, which is tied with his teammate, Patrick Surtain II, for the 13th-most out of 171 qualified defensive backs. Unfortunately, NFL Pro Stats does not differentiate between cornerbacks and safeties, which is something to keep in mind. 

Moss has been the second-most targeted corner, one fewer than the leader, but his catch percentage allowed is the 27th-lowest, again out of 171 total defensive backs. Teams target Moss often, but he has done a good job of not allowing them to move the ball at will. His catch percentage is also the lowest on the Broncos' defense. 

Moss' coverage EPA ranks 60th, he has the 41st-highest percentage of tight window throws, and his tackling ability ranks him 40th in yards-after-catch per reception at two yards.

Moss is also playing tight coverage, allowing an average of 1.6 yards of separation. Let’s look at some data from another source. 

Pro Football Focus has some additional data worth examining, which can be filtered down to only corners. So, where does Moss rank in some of these key data points among 46 corners with at least 100 coverage snaps? 

Moss Leads NFL in Forced Incompletions

Moss leads in forced incompletions and is tied for the 11th-highest forced incompletion percentage; the difference is a result of having the second-lowest snaps-to-target ratio. Again, teams are trying to pick on Moss and aren’t having much success. 

Some of the catches Moss has allowed have been better throws and catches, but there is another issue. He has 30-inch arms, which are in the 8th percentile for corners per Mockdraftable. That lack of length does show up on some of those catches where he has excellent coverage, but not the length to reach around the receiver and attack the catch point. 

That is the biggest tissue with Moss. He can play tight coverage, but he isn’t going to be able to attack the catch point even when he's in a perfect position consistently. The lack of length can also explain the penalties, as he does tend to grab and turn receivers to help him reach the catch point. 

When a clear issue exists, as seems to be the case with Moss, teams will look to exploit it, and success will often follow. However, he makes enough plays to make opposing quarterbacks think twice, but he needs to take it a step further and start taking the ball away from them. 

The Takeaway

There have been issues, but Moss hasn’t been a liability yet, and until he is one, he should stay out there on the boundary opposite Surtain. Many fans want the Broncos to turn to Kris Abrams-Draine or Jahdae Barron, but both still have issues that may become problematic if they take the field. 

Moss is a more reliable run defender than Abrams-Draine, who also has some concerns over his arm length, but may also lack the mass as a consistent tackler. As for Barron, the Broncos have been working with him to take over in the slot, but they’re trying not to put too much on his plate. 

For now, the Broncos can get by with Moss starting. The calls for him to be benched are premature, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be valid down the road. If or when Moss does become a liability, then it would be time for the Broncos to consider a change.