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AFC Divisional Round Predictions: Early NFL Playoff Picks

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Jan 13, 2026 12:52 AM ET

The AFC wasn't the NFC in the Wild Card round, but it all sets up for a whale of a Divisional Round.

Buffalo held on to get by Jacksonville, and now it's as dangerous as a 6 seed gets going into Denver to face the top-seeded Broncos.

New England's pass rush overwhelmed Justin Herbert and the Chargers, Houston's pass rush dominated Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, and now the Patriots and Texans should play one of the toughest battles of the playoffs.

2026 NFL Playoffs: First Predictions for the AFC Divisional Round

Early Picks So Far
Straight Up: 1-2
ATS: 1-2
Point Total: 2-1

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Saturday, January 17, 2026
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
4:30 pm ET, CBS
Buffalo (12-5), Denver (14-3)

First Thought Instant Analysis: To keep with the theme of first-thought, off-the-cuff, stream-of-... you get it, it feels like Jacksonville let Buffalo off the hook, and that was the one break Josh Allen needed after getting knocked around in the Wild Card thriller.

To be simplistic about it, Buffalo played like it was used to the big playoff moment, and Jacksonville didn't.

And now Denver is supposed to be ready for this?

Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) after the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High. © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Bronco defense is better than Buffalo's. The offense is good enough, Bo Nix plays like a calm, cool, veteran, and the Bills are way too shaky in way too many areas compared to recent playoff teams.

There's one problem. Two, actually.

Denver plays way too many close games. You can't let this be close late against the bigger problem, that guy under center on the other side.

Yeah, the Bronco defense is statistically great - it played a bunch of blah offenses.

The Bills will run their way to the AFC Championship.

First Thought No Research Prediction
Buffalo 26, Denver 23
Early Line No-Look Guess
Buffalo -3, o/u: 47.5
Actual Line
Buffalo -1.5, o/u: 51

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Jan 11, 2026; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) warms up before the game against the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC Wild Card Round game at Gillette Stadium. © David Butler II-Imagn Images

Sunday, January 18, 2026
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
3:00 pm ET, ABC/ESPN
Houston (12-5), New England (14-3)

First Thought Instant Analysis: First team to five sacks wins?

America doesn't grasp just how devastating this Houston defense is, partly because the offense is so mediocre that it takes away the luster.

Aaron Rodgers couldn't read this defense. Neither could Patrick Mahomes back in early December. Josh Allen was crushed in Buffalo's loss to this bunch. However ...

CJ Stroud can't be as lost as he was against Pittsburgh.

The Houston defense will hold up its end of the bargain, but the offense will have a nightmare of a time dealing with a jacked-up Patriot D that will be breathing fire from the start.

With star receiver Nico Collins likely out, all of a sudden, it's about the Texan running game even more against one of the league's best run defenses.

This won't be pretty in any way, but the New England balance will be good enough in an ultra-conservative performance. Don't have turnover problems against the Texans, pull off the win.

First Thought No Research Prediction
New England 19, Houston 16
Early Line No-Look Guess
New England -2.5, o/u: 39.5
Actual Line
New England -2.5, o/u: 40.5