Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

AFC underdog report: Conference championships

By Bruce Ewing | Last updated 1/22/24

The Baltimore Ravens are home favorites against the defending Super Bowl champions this Sunday, but an improved Chiefs defense (and the reigning NFL MVP) could have something to say about that.

Odds via DraftKings as of Jan. 22.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

For the first time in seven years, the Chiefs ended the regular season with a top-10 defense. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit finished second in yards allowed per game (289.8) and trailed only Baltimore in sacks (57) and points allowed per game (17.3) in 2023.

Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is having an MVP season, but his game is comparable to Buffalo’s Josh Allen. While the Chiefs let Allen have 72 yards and two scores on the ground, they held him to 186 yards passing with an average of 4.8 yards per throw in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Jackson may be in line for a second MVP award, but he’s not nearly the passer Allen is. If the Chiefs can find a way to keep him in the pocket, they’ll have a much better chance against the league’s 15th-leading passer.

On the other hand, if Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes can get out of the pocket and beat Baltimore’s rush, Kansas City has an excellent chance of outscoring the Ravens. Mahomes finished 17-of-23 for 215 yards and two touchdowns in the first road playoff game of his career Sunday night.

Mahomes to Kelce. An all-time duo. #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/ji1uqT79NW
— NFL (@NFL) January 22, 2024

With both scores going to Travis Kelce, he and Mahomes set a playoff record with 16 touchdowns together. The 34-year-old tight end is getting hot at just the right time. His numbers are way down from 2022, but only the Cowboys’ Jake Ferguson has caught more touchdowns (three) than Kelce this postseason.

Meanwhile, rookie Rashee Rice’s 177 yards this postseason are fifth-most of any wide receiver. After a slow start to his rookie year, Rice finished the regular season as the team’s leading receiver in their final three games.

Rice has battled a hamstring injury in recent weeks but he was able to play against the Bills and should be ready to face the Ravens. Armed with a brand new weapon and a veteran pass-catcher like Kelce, there’s no reason to think Mahomes’ Chiefs can’t put up points at M&T Bank Stadium this weekend.

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