AFC, NFC title games: Best Conference Championship Teaser
It's the games — AFC and NFC Conference Championship — before the big one. Win, and you're in the Super Bowl. Lose, and you get to watch the Super Bowl in two weeks from home. And boy, oh boy, should these two games be entertaining. Cincinnati and Kansas City meet in the AFC title game for second consecutive season while the two top seeds out of the NFC — Philadelphia and San Francisco — duke it out in the NFC title game.
But before we get started with our top teaser for the week, let's recap last week's win. It was arguably our most comfortable win of the year, and our first of the postseason. The Bengals were never in doubt on losing last week against Buffalo, let alone covering an 11.5-point spread, while Kansas City's biggest scare wasn't whether or not they were going to win by a field goal, it was whether or not Patrick Mahomes' season was over after suffering a high ankle sprain against Jacksonville.
And since we're already talking about Kansas City and Cincinnati, let's kick off our teaser with our best play for Sunday's AFC title game. Joe Burrow is a perfect 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes, and even though some are referring to Arrowhead Stadium as "Burrowhead" Stadium, we are not willing to those extremes quite yet. However, we do like the Bengals (+6) via the teaser against the Chiefs.
Mahomes has yet to beat Burrow head-to-head, and he was far much healthier in those games than he is now. So, what exactly makes the Chiefs' chances of winning on Sunday all that much greater than the previous three times? The answer: they're not. We are by no means saying the Bengals are a lock to win on Sunday, but we'd be surprised if they lose by more than six.
Cincinnati beat KC by a field goal twice last year — once in the regular season and then again in the postseason — and don't be surprised if Sunday's game comes down to another late field goal. If Mahomes didn't get hurt last week, we'd be a little more reluctant to take the Bengals (+6), but again, should we be?
Cincinnati has had KC's number, and the Bengals have quietly won 10 straight games and absolutely dominated Buffalo last week on the road. Expect Burrow and the Bengals to do their thing on offense, but don't sleep on the Cincy defense. The Bengals held the high-powered Bills offense to 10 points on Sunday and haven't allowed more than 18 points in a game for four straight weeks. Regardless of who wins the AFC title, don't expect it to be by more than six.
As for the NFC, we're taking the Eagles (+3.5) on the teaser against the 49ers. If this game was in San Francisco, we'd probably go with the Niners, but Philly fans always show up, no matter how good or bad their team is, and no matter how crummy the weather conditions are.
The 49ers haven't seen an offense this good since they played the Chiefs back in Week 7, and the Eagles have yet to play a defense as good as San Francisco's. This game might be more low scoring than some expect, and that bodes well for us on the teaser front.
The Eagles dominated on the ground last week in a blowout win over the New York Giants, but that's super unlikely to happen again this week. San Francisco allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the league, and have arguably the best defensive coordinator in football in DeMeco Ryans.
Both quarterbacks — Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy — are going to called on to make plays in the passing game at some point come Sunday. However, the question is: who will be more effective? For the first time all year, Purdy actually looked like a rookie last week against Dallas, and Hurts threw the ball just 24 times on Saturday and still hasn't entirely looked like himself after missing Weeks 16 and 17 with a sprained right shoulder.
We're aware San Francisco has won 12 straight games, but remember, you don't need the Eagles to win for this leg to cover, you just need them to lose by less than a field goal. Just like the AFC Championship Game, we wouldn't be surprised in the least bit if this game comes down to a late field goal. So, regardless of who wins, expect a nail-biter, and ultimately, for the winner to come out on top by no more than three points.
The Teaser: Cincinnati Bengals (pk) to (+6) AND Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) to (+3.5) (+112 odds via Barstool)
Bet $100 to win $112
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