Every throw graded: Ultimate scouting report of Jets' Sam Darnold

Darnold threw for 338 yards on a whopping 10.6 yards per attempt, then a career-high. In this case, the box score numbers correctly demonstrated the quarterback’s true performance level. Darnold was smart and steady, looking every bit like a franchise quarterback.

WORST GAME: Week 7 vs. Patriots (3.3 grade) 

A week after playing perhaps the best game of his career, Darnold had a nightmare outing in a 33-0 loss on Monday Night Football. He had five turnovers -- four interceptions -- and averaged 2.7 yards per passing attempt against Bill Belichick’s top-ranked defense. Darnold’s supporting cast did him no favors, but the second-year QB made bad situations worse, often passing into danger rather than throwing the ball away. 

The key to New England’s dominance? The zero blitz. New England brought plenty of all-out pressure packages with no safety back, and Darnold had no answer. Here, Darnold must pass almost immediately as the Patriots rush seven against six blockers. But wideout Jamison Crowder is not on the same page, and Darnold lofts the ball up for an easy interception.

Darnold's supporting cast was equally bad, and the coaching staff failed to counter New England’s heavy pressure packages. The receivers were clearly not on the same page with Darnold, a knock on them and the staff, and the offensive line was horrendous, constantly botching protections.

MOST UNDERRATED GAME BY BOX SCORE: Week 13 vs. Bengals (56.7 grade)

The Jets suffered embarrassing losses in 2019, none worse than their 22-6 loss against the 0-11 Bengals. Darnold -– who posted a measly 5.0 yards per attempt -– drew blame afterward from fans and media. But the film reveals he played well, making high-level intermediate and deep throws. Blunders by others cancelled out his productivity.

New York's offense committed eight penalties, and Darnold was let down by his line, which allowed pressure on 46.7 percent of his dropbacks, and receivers (five drops). On a deep shot to wideout Demaryius Thomas, Darnold dropped the ball in a great spot, but Thomas tracked it poorly and was unable to get to the pass.

Darnold was especially good in the 10-to-20 yard range, showing a combination of deft touch and high velocity as he threaded tiny windows. This throw to Ryan Griffin encapsulates the kind of day it was for Darnold. Under pressure, Darnold squeaks the ball into tight coverage, hitting Griffin on the hands, but the tight end fails to pull it in.

MOST OVERRATED GAME BY BOX SCORE: Week 16 vs. Steelers (25.2 grade)

Darnold put up solid numbers in the 16-10 win, earning a 95.5 passer rating and throwing for 7.0 yards per attempt. But the film clearly shows he struggled against an elite defense.

The Jets did not make life easy on Darnold, as they failed to contain Pittsburgh’s front seven or gain separation against its secondary, but he made baffling decisions nonetheless. Darnold often passed into congested areas when receivers were open underneath. On one play, Darnold took a deep shot into double coverage that should have been ruled an interception, but it was overturned.

That near-interception was not Darnold’s worst mistake, however. Rather, it was the play below, an incomplete rocket up the middle to Crowder. Anderson breaks wide open over the middle from the right side, but Darnold decides to go for Crowder, who is blanketed by three defenders. The pass wasn't intercepted, but Darnold made the wrong decision, leaving a first down on the field.

BEST PLAY

In a 42-21 loss to the Ravens in Week 15, Darnold put his stellar arm talent on display with numerous beautiful throws. This touchdown throw to Crowder was his best of the season. The precision on display here, while he is under pressure and sprinting toward the sideline, is a thing of beauty. Darnold fits the ball into Crowder’s chest, just over the outstretched arm of Marlon Humphrey, while the receiver is falling out of bounds. If the ball were placed an inch farther in any other direction, it probably would not have been completed.

WORST PLAY

One of Darnold’s biggest weaknesses is his inability to get rid of the ball under pressure. He is too daring when defenders are bearing down. Sometime it leads to magical moments, but it also leads to killer mistakes, like the following play against Miami.

The Jets face second and goal at the Miami 2-yard line with 54 seconds remaining in the half. They try to run a rub play into the flat, but it is busted. No one is open, and pressure seeps in. Darnold must  toss the ball out of bounds and move on to the next down. Instead, Darnold recklessly gives Crowder a jump-ball opportunity. The pass is intercepted, and the Jets leave points on the field.

Q&A: What are Darnold’s biggest strengths?

In favorable passing situations (little pressure, easy down and distance), Darnold plays at a high level. From a clean pocket, he posted an adjusted completion percentage of 81.7 percent, seventh best in the league in 2019. On this 2^nd-and-7 play, watch how Darnold leads Griffin to a spot where he can turn upfield and split between two defenders to pick up the first down.

That is perfect ball placement into an open window from a clean pocket -– an example of the quarterback getting the most out of what there was to gain. Most quarterbacks are fully capable of making that throw. It is the consistency at which Darnold executes those throws, however, that makes him a great clean-pocket quarterback. 

If he is protected, Darnold will maximize the play at a greater frequency than most others. He doesn’t even necessarily need great receiving talent to showcase this ability, because his short-to-intermediate ball placement is so good. If the Jets give him a competent line, Darnold can be a franchise QB.

What are his greatest weaknesses?

Two things stand out: lack of poise under pressure and poor short-range passing vision. 

Under pressure, Darnold must be more willing to step into throws and deliver while taking hits. There are too many instances in which he misfires from a crowded pocket because his feet are too flat and inactive. He must do a better job of taking the extra split-second to set himself before firing, which means he may take a hit from the pass rush. Additionally, he must throw the ball away when it's clear he has no receiving options.

Darnold also has a tendency to be much too aggressive on third down. While his Brett Favre-esque mentality works in a positive way for him on plenty of occasions, he must dial it back on third-and-short situations. There were too many instances in which the Jets' offense came off the field last season because Darnold passed on an easy first-down opportunity in favor of a lower-percentage shot farther downfield. 

How much has Darnold been hurt by his supporting cast?

The Jets’ struggles to support Darnold all start up front. In 2019, Darnold took pressure on the highest percentage of dropbacks in the NFL (41.6) and his run game ranked 31^st in DVOA. 

In particular, the Jets allowed far too much interior pressure. At center, Spencer Long was atrocious in 2018; centers Ryan Kalil and Jonotthan Harrison were terrible in 2019. At guard, the Jets have rotated through numerous bargain-bin options with predictable results.

At the skill positions, the Jets were below average last season. Crowder is a top-10 slot weapon, capable of making big plays, but he struggled with drops. Running back Le’Veon Bell was excellent as a receiver, but he didn't produce much in the run game (789 yards, 3.2 YPG) because the offensive line struggled.

At tight end and outside wide receiver, the Jets also have major issues. Tight end Griffin did a decent job as a pass-catcher, but the entire receiving group blocked poorly in the passing and running games. Darnold sorely missed second-year tight end Chris Herndon, who played only one game because of injuries and a suspension. As a rookie in 2018, Herndon played terrifically (502 yards receiving), forging a tremendous connection with Darnold.

On the outside, Robby Anderson is an elite deep threat and solid, all-around No. 2 receiver. But he's not a No, 1. After Quincy Enunwa went down for the season in Week 1, Thomas and Vyncint Smith were the second- and third most-targeted outside receivers. They struggled to create separation against man-to-man coverage, often leaving Darnold with few options.

Where will Darnold stack up in 2020?

Darnold’s progression depends mightily on how well general manager Joe Douglas re-builds the offensive line. The Jets need upgrades at all five positions. With $49.4M in cap space (prior to any cuts or trades), the Jets have ample room to chase stud free agents Joe Thuney (Patriots), Graham Glasgow (Lions), Brandon Scherff (Redskins) or Jack Conklin (Titans). With the 11^th pick in the first round, the Jets could be in a good spot to take an elite tackle.

If the Jets improve the pieces around him, Darnold is capable of becoming a top-15 quarterback. When his line plays well. he'll play well. When Darnold has taken a pressure rate of below 34 percent (about league average), he is 7-1 with a 108.3 passer rating and the Jets average 29 points.

Keep in mind Darnold's age -- he'll only be 23 when he begins his third season. Still, Darnold must demonstrate progress in 2020. Three straight mediocre seasons -- regardless of his age or quality of support –- will not give New York much hope.