Every throw graded: An ultimate scouting report of Buffalo's Josh Allen

Allen’s mobility can lead to positive and negative results. The above play is an example of him using it for good. When he steps up in the pocket rather than out, and keeps his eyes downfield instead of looking to run, he gets the most value from his ability to extend plays.

Allen also put his legs on display against the Cowboys, picking up four first downs -- including a 15-yard scramble for a touchdown and a 4^th-and-1 conversion in which he recovered a botched snap.

Altogether, the Dallas game was a prime example of what Allen can do when he combines his exciting traits with a heady approach and good decision-making.

WORST GAME: Week 4 vs. Patriots (30.8 grade)

Allen had an extremely rough outing in a 16-10 loss to the Patriots. His issues wiped out a spectacular performance from the defense, which allowed only nine points. This is an example of a game in which Allen held the Bills back.

Just as the box score from the Cowboys game painted the proper picture of how solidly Allen played, the box score from the Patriots game tells the true story of how much he struggled. Allen completed 13 of 28 passes for 153 yards and no touchdowns. He threw three interceptions, and his passer rating was 24.0, a career low

The Patriots made many quarterbacks look foolish in 2019, but Allen’s mistakes in his first meeting against them usually had little to do with anything special New England did. Allen simply made foolish decisions, often trying to do too much. On this 1^st-and-20 play, he tries to squeeze the ball to John Brown on a post route between two deep safeties -- a big no-no. Predictably, the pass is intercepted.

New England did not do anything groundbreaking there. It is a Cover-2. That's what it looked like the Patriots were playing pre-snap, and that's what it was post-snap. To make this play by Allen even worse, the offensive line provided excellent protection against the four-man rush, tight end Dawson Knox was wide open for a sizable gain in the flat, and running back T.J. Yeldon was open for a dump-off. 

Allen’s other interceptions were similarly awful. On one, Allen chucked up a deep corner route to wideout Zay Jones off his back foot while under pressure, with a corner trailing and a safety over the top. Without adequate power on the throw, the ball was short and easily picked off. Running back Devin Singletary was wide open for a gain of at least 20 yards on a dump-off.

On the other interception, Allen first passed up on the opportunity to throw a wide-open drag route to Brown. After missing that easy pickup, Allen scrambled and had ample time to throw the ball away, but instead tossed it into a hodgepodge of players. Cornerback J.C. Jackson made the interception.

Decision-making is Allen’s biggest weakness. Sometimes he will miss an easy checkdown. Other times he will check down too quickly and miss an open shot at a big play. His field-reading process must improve. 

MOST UNDERRATED GAME BY BOX SCORE: Week 5 vs. Titans

By only looking at the boxscore, you would be led to believe that Allen was mediocre against the Titans. He posted his ninth-best yards per attempt average (6.8) and seventh-best passer rating (98.3) of the season in Buffalo's 14-7 win.

Turn on the tape, and you see that Allen did everything in his power to will Buffalo to victory. The Tennessee secondary played lockdown coverage, often limiting Allen to one or no options. In most scenarios like that, Allen would crumble (as he did in his first game against New England) but not this time. He was remarkably consistent finding the best option available, and most importantly, Allen wisely threw the ball away when he didn't have a good option.

Adding to the “underrated” nature of Allen’s performance in Tennessee, his best throw of the afternoon was dropped. On this 3^{rd and} 9, Allen leaps to grab a high snap from Mitch Morse (a common occurrence throughout the season), takes a crushing hit from Logan Ryan, and fires a bullet into the chest of Dawson Knox for a should-be first down.

I credited Allen with 26 positive plays to only eight negative plays against Tennessee, a season-best ratio of 3.3-to-one. His 62.9 grade checked in at No, 2 on the season, behind the Cowboys game. 

MOST OVERRATED GAME BY BOX SCORE: Week 11 at Dolphins

Allen had his best fantasy performance against the Dolphins, throwing for three TDs for the only time in 2019 and tying his season-high with 56 yards rushing. (He also rushed for a TD.)  His 256 passing yards were his second-highest total of the season. But he was not nearly as strong as those numbers suggest. Allen whiffed on easy opportunities against a terrible defense. Although Allen’s accuracy was solid overall, the throws he did miss were often costly. Here, Allen misses a wide-open chance at a big pickup for Brown.

The next play is an example of a bad scramble by Allen. If you watched this play live, Allen appeared to make something out of nothing. He dodges a few defenders and churns out a four-yard gain. What you missed is the yardage that he left on the field. After keeping the ball on this run-pass option, Allen checks the left side of the field and then takes off. He never looks to the right, where wide receiver Andre Roberts is open for a gain of at least 10 yards and a first down. Even after evading the first rusher, Allen could have scampered to the outside and hit Roberts for a first down. 

BEST PLAY

Deep ball touch is an area where Allen can improve. He already has the mobility and arm strength to be an excellent splash playmaker outside the pocket. If he sprinkles in some touch to his scrambling game, he will make many more outstanding plays like the one below.

This pass may read “incomplete” in the play-by-play, but it still stands out as perhaps Allen’s best moment of 2019. On 3^{rd and 5}, Allen rolls away from the six-man rush, finds his only conceivable target, and somehow drops the ball right into the hands of Beasley, who fails to convert.

That is some unreal touch from Allen, as he delivers this ball under heavy duress while moving to his non-dominant side. The key? He takes the extra moment to set himself before firing this ball. There are too many instances in which Allen throws on the move with just his arm, failing to his use his lower body to add precision and power. This play shows what can happen when Allen uses good technique.

WORST PLAY

This Allen interception against the Bengals on 3^{rd and} 7 is a good example of how he sometimes is overaggressive. There's no excuse for this turnover. Allen scrambles from pressure, getting himself outside the tackle box so he can legally throw the ball away. But on a play in which the chances for a completion are slim, he throws across his body to a well-covered Beasley and gets picked off.

Cincinnati returned the ball to Buffalo’s 22-yard line. A 45-yard punt from the initial spot of the play (the Buffalo 43-yard line) would have put Cincinnati at its own 22-yard line. It’s a field-flipper. Toss the ball away, take the punt, and live for another down. Allen had a window to hit Singletary over the middle for a first down if he kept his eyes downfield.

Q&A: Does Allen really have an incredible arm?

Absolutely. This shows up most clearly on his throws outside the numbers. Allen is at his most accurate when launching the ball on out and flat routes. Whether he his throwing to the boundary side or from the opposite hash, he can deliver the ball to the outside in a flash.

Allen can improve his accuracy in most areas of the field, but his velocity has allowed him to complete passes few other QBs could. In the intermediate range, Allen shows the ability to thread the needle between multiple defenders or the outstretched arms of linebackers.

Allen’s shotgun arm sometimes hurts him. When he misses, he has a strong tendency to miss high. In the deep range, he lacks adequate touch and location. There are also instances in which receivers drop passes because  Allen puts far too much mustard on relatively easy underneath throws.

How much help does Allen get from his supporting cast?

Allen’s support in 2019 was above average.  Buffalo’s offensive line, although not elite, performed well (12^th in pass-blocking efficiency). The Bills'  receiving corps was solid, with free-agent additions John Brown and Cole Beasley running excellent routes and getting open frequently. Rookie tight end Dawson Knox also got open consistently, and rookie running back Devin Singletary did a good job leaking out of the backfield and providing a security blanket (although Allen often missed him).

The pass-catching corps' impact was limited by issues at the catch point. Thirty Allen passes were dropped, and his 6.5 percent drop rate was second highest among qualified quarterbacks. Part of that was on Allen for throwing many slightly awry passes, but there were certainly a healthy total of egregious missed opportunities by receivers. Knox (nine drops) was the leading culprit. Also, Allen was not aided by many circus grabs from his receivers. With Beasley and Brown each under six feet, Buffalo lacked size on the outside, and Allen did not have a good bail-out target (key for a young quarterback who struggles with accuracy).

The defense made life easy for Allen.  In victories, the Bills averaged 23.5 points, fifth fewest in the league and fewest among the 13 teams with a winning record. With Buffalo spending a lot of time in the lead, Allen often had a light load on his shoulders, and was able to play relaxed, safe football. In  close games in which the Bills needed Allen to lift them up, his weaknesses were put into the spotlight (at Jets, vs. Patriots, vs. Eagles, vs. Ravens, at Texans).

What must Allen improve upon?

Allen struggles against the blitz, often failing to attack the open area vacated by a blitzer. He is a phenomenal athlete, but he must master how to use that athleticism. He often takes sacks that he shouldn’t, holding onto the ball too long. Allen sometimes scrambles when he has open receivers. He must do a better job choosing the direction in which he scrambles – Allen will often run toward the side of the field with more defenders, or away from the side with more receiving options.

If Allen uses mobility to simply shift around the pocket, staying ready to fire at all times, he will buy his receivers time to get open. That would substantially raise the upside of Buffalo’s passing attack.

A mobile quarterback’s value is made or broken by the answers to these questions: Can he make plays in broken-down situations in which other quarterbacks cannot? Can he use his talents to raise the ceiling of the bread-and-butter passing game? The option to scramble or to extend plays toward the sideline will always be there, but those should be last-resort options that are turned to once all passing windows are closed. 

Bottom line: Allen has the potential to be a very good quarterback, but he has much room for improvement.