NFL Week 12 'Beat the Line' moves
What a Week 11 it was for our "Beat the Line" column. We took the New York Giants at +10. They closed +7.5 and won outright against the Washington Commanders. We also nabbed the Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears over at 46.5. The total closed at 48, and we cashed when both teams combined for 57 points. Our last pick was the Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers under 38.5. The total closed 33.5, and the under was never a doubt.
We didn't necessarily need the closing line value to cash all three bets, but it's nice to see we're seeing these line moves before they happen. Let's keep it rolling with three picks for NFL Week 12 that should create CLV by Sunday.
2023 record: 21-8-4 CLV, 18-14-1 ATS
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
Are we sure the Patriots should be favored on the road against any team in the NFL right now? New England surely shouldn't be more than a three-point road favorite even against Tommy DeVito and the Giants, so we're grabbing the hook now.
DeVito went 18-26 for 246 yards and three touchdowns against the Commanders. He's starting to look like a competent NFL quarterback, and that's all you need to beat a Patriots team that ranks 31st in the NFL in points per game and hasn't yet decided on a starting QB for this week.
The bet to make: Giants +3.5 (-110 DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This spread opened too high.
The Chiefs have been sputtering on offense with just 30 points over their last two games, and they have a tough game coming up on "Monday Night Football" against the Philadelphia Eagles. It won't be easy to turn around after a physical game and play in a sleepy spot against a division opponent on a short week. Kansas City's defense can be torched on the ground, so the Raiders can ride Josh Jacobs all day and keep this game close throughout.
The bet to make: Raiders +9.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Houston Texans/Cleveland Browns six-point teaser
Let's try something new on "Beat the Line." The Texans opened as 1.5-point underdogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, and the Cleveland Browns opened as 2.5-point road underdogs against the Denver Broncos. We think both spreads are going to move in our favor throughout the week, but the best way to play these short numbers is with a teaser.
The Texans might be a better team than the Jaguars, and there's a good chance they close as favorites in this game. We're pushing them up through the key numbers of three and seven before it's too late. As for the Browns, their defense will keep every game close. Russell Wilson and the Broncos aren't built to blow teams out, so getting Cleveland up to +8.5 in a low-total game is a no-brainer.
The bet to make: Texans +7.5/Browns +8.5 (-134 FanDuel)
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