NFL Week 11 'Beat the Line' moves

Our season-long mission to create closing line value in the NFL and beat the books continues to be successful. We were 3-0 in creating CLV in Week 10, and we're still above .500 against the spread through 30 picks. 

Let's keep it rolling with our three favorite bets for Week 11 that should give us CLV come Sunday afternoon. 

2023 record: 18-8-4 CLV, 15-14-1 ATS 

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

Not many of you are going to want to join me with this bet considering the Giants have been outscored, 79-23, over their last two games, but hear me out.

The Commanders should never be double-digit favorites against anyone. Washington's four wins this season have come by an average of 4.25 points, and all four came against teams with losing records. If you remember, the Commanders also lost to the Giants, 14-7, a few weeks ago in their worst offensive performance of the season.

The Giants couldn't possibly be rated lower in the market right now, so we're jumping on the +10 and hoping bigger bettors agree. The bet to make: Giants +10 (-110 DraftKings)

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

We're operating under the assumption that Justin Fields will be back under center for the Bears in Week 11, and if that's the case, this total is too low.

The Lions could score 30 points themselves against a below-average Bears defense, and Chicago will be able to move the ball much better than it has with Tyson Bagent at the helm. This game has serious shootout potential, so we're jumping in front of the Fields injury news before it's too late.  The bet to make: Over 46.5 (-110 DK)

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

This total is likely to drop as we get closer to kickoff. Both Cleveland and Pittsburgh rank inside the bottom six in the NFL in terms of yards per play, so the defenses will have the advantage in this game. There's also a good chance we see a cold, windy forecast in Cleveland this Sunday, which will undoubtedly cause this total to fall. The bet to make: Under 38.5 (-110 DK)