There are several ways that the first round of the 2024 NFL draft could unfold for the Kansas City Chiefs.
They’re slated to make just one selection with the final draft slot of the first round at pick No. 32 after winning Super Bowl LVIII in February. That is, of course, assuming that Chiefs GM Brett Veach doesn’t decide to get a little bit bold. He has been known to be aggressive moving up in past drafts, including in the first round (see Trent McDuffie, 2021).
"Every situation is unique," Veach told reporters ahead of the draft. "I mean we’ve had conversations in the last few years about guys that we consider top five, top six prospects if they were to fall into the teens and got (Chairman and CEO) Clark (Hunt) and (Head Coach) Andy (Reid) involved and those situations just didn’t work out."
One of those conversations might have happened last season. They had a trade offer into the Cowboys to acquire pick No. 26 in the 2023 NFL draft, but Jerry Jones declined and selected Michigan DT Mazi Smith.
"A lot of things have to fall into place for (a trade) to happen," Veach continued. "So it would have to be probably a specific guy or two and then probably getting into a landing spot that’s not expected. And then, if he does get into that landing spot that’s not expected, the team is willing to work with you on a trade that makes sense. So, (I) certainly can see it. A lot of things have to happen and fall in place to see an outcome like that, but I always think anything is possible.”
It takes a perfect storm for things to fall into place for a trade-up in the first round of the draft. What could that perfect storm look like for the Chiefs?
LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. is Chiefs GM Brett Veach's redemption
For the longest while, the consensus has been that Thomas would be the fourth receiver off the board following the big three (Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze). There has been some recent chatter that Texas WR Xavier Worthy has supplanted Thomas as that fourth wide receiver off the board.
Why could a fall happen for Thomas? Firstly, he's been flagged for a labrum injury that could eventually require surgical intervention.
"Both of LSU’s star receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, have issues with their left shoulders. The risk here is considered relatively minimal—in both cases, there’s a chance the player may have to have the shoulder surgically repaired after the 2024 season. Bryan Bresee, the Saints’ first-round pick last year, had a similar situation with his shoulder coming into the draft last year." - Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer
The other aspect is what makes this a redemptive moment for Chiefs GM Brett Veach. If you'll recall, he went on record earlier this month stating that he regretted the process that led the Chiefs to pass on former Ole Miss WR DK Metcalf in the 2019 NFL draft.
“DK Metcalf might be a guy that stands out just because of the limited pass tree, I think there were some injury concerns," Veach said. "I think looking back on DK, there were areas that we weren't sure on. But there were none that should have prompted us to bypass him."
Well, the second knock on Thomas is that he didn't run the full route tree at LSU. 19.2% of his routes were go-routes and 25.6% were hitches. He ran some posts, digs, slants, and curl routes, but nothing at such a high rate.
It's truly a Groundhog Day situation for Veach and the Chiefs. Thomas is a super-talented athlete with solid college production, but red flags in the medical and route-running departments. They could let him fall to someone like the Buffalo Bills or the Baltimore Ravens, or they could take matters into their own hands and secure an elite weapon for Patrick Mahomes.
I'm not entirely convinced Thomas will slide because this kid scored an FBS-leading 17 touchdowns last season. However, if he does slide down the board, I think he's someone the Chiefs will strike on. If he remains available at pick No. 24, look for the Dallas Cowboys to be more willing to deal this time around as opposed to when the Chiefs called about a first-round trade a season ago.
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