The Green Bay Packers had a relatively easy win over the Chicago Bears in week 1, 38-20. It was the first game of the Jordan Love era, and the Packers quarterback finished it with 245 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Get another win in week 18, and the Packers are in the playoffs.
But this is a very different matchup, especially when the Packers offense and the Bears defense are on the field. Both units have progressed dramatically throughout the season, and this is a much tougher game than one might expect against an eliminated 7-9 team.
The Bears are last in the NFC North, but it's not an usual bad team. They have the second best record among last-placed teams, just behind the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8). And the increase in performance is obvious.
Packers O vs Bears D
Over the first eight weeks of the season, the Packers offense was 15th in EPA/play, and the Bears defense was 30th. Since week 9, though, the Packers offense is 4th, and the Bears defense is 2nd. It's an impressive difference for both sides, even though Chicago's has been more extreme.
"We're playing some good football. It's not great, it's not where it needs to be. But it's good football. It's solid, it's winning football. We've just got to keep doing that," said Bears head coach Matt Eberflus, who's expected to keep his job in 2024.
"That continuity piece, I really just think it's that. Really can't point to anything else but a lot of hard work. The men in the locker room, the coaches in that locker room, everybody working. The performance staff, everybody working together through adversity, through that hardness it took of losing those games in the early part of the year."
The improvement can be seen by DVOA, a stat used to measure how well teams have played comparing their performances against similar opponents. For the entire season, the Bears are 20th. But by weighted DVOA, a submetric that gives more value to recent games, Chicago goes up all the way to seventh place.
For the Packers, there's something more palpable. It's the youngest offensive roster in football, so an in-season development was an expected factor to a certain degree.
And Jordan Love is the main reason for that. The first-year starter was 25th in EPA+CPOE composite, metrics that analyze offensive efficiency and quarterback accuracy over expected. Since week 9, Love has gone all to third, only behind Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott. He's been, for the second half of the season, one of the best and most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL.
The other side
When the matchup is between the Bears offense and the Packers defense, though, the development is not that significant. Both units have gotten slightly better, but for the most part are more of the same.
The Bears offense was 21st in EPA/play between weeks 1 and 8, and improved to 18th since. Quarterback Justin Fields has been praised in Chicago, but his individual performance hasn't changed that much. He was 19th in EPA+CPOE composite in the first half of the season, and has been 18th since.
Meanwhile, the Packers defense has gone through ups and downs, but with an overview of their performance, it's still better than it had been. Green Bay was 25th in defensive EPA/play between weeks 1 and 8, and 20th between weeks 9 and 17. It's still a below average unit, but the results have been better.
It's a different challenge than it was in week 1. Now, both sides have much more information about each other, and the Chicago Bears are already eliminated — that works both ways. It could be a team that lacks motivation, or it's a team playing with lightness and motivation to knock the rivals off the playoffs. And the Packers can take advantage of the situation to get their 10th consecutive win over the Bears, or the pressure might be too much for a young team.
It will be an interesting challenge, and the Packers need to pass this last test in order to reach the postseason.
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