Super Bowl LVIII bets: Early betting thoughts on the spread and total

We're two weeks out from the Super Bowl in Vegas between the Chiefs and Niners, and we will be breaking everything down that we can get our hands on from now until then.

The most logical place to start is of course with the spread and total.

The spread: San Francisco slight favorites, money coming in on Kansas City

San Francisco -1, Kansas City +1

Last night, San Francisco opened as three-point favorites, but that was quickly bought down to -1, where it's sitting as of Monday afternoon.

The 49ers are objectively a better and deeper team, which would explain the opening line, but the legend of Patrick Mahomes is fueling this early money.

Mahomes just went on the road and won twice as an underdog, improving to 11-1-1 ATS as a dog and 10-3 straight up.

At the end of the day, Super Bowls can come down to quarterbacks, and there's no doubt a massive edge in that department when comparing Mahomes to Brock Purdy.

If you believe this early betting momentum on the Chiefs is only going to continue over the next 14 days, you may want to stay patient if you want to back the 49ers. It's not inconceivable to consider a world where the money continues coming on Kansas City until everything flips, at which point you might be able to grab San Fran at plus-money to win.

On the other hand, we may see things stall and stay steady at this number.

Our early take ATS: We like the Chiefs to win and secured their moneyline last night.

The total: Expecting some moderate fireworks

Over/under: 47.5 points

Kansas City's most recent game yielded just 27 points, and the Chiefs have allowed just 41 points across their three playoff games thus far. On the other hand, San Francisco just got into a 65-point game after tallying 45 points in the divisional round.

We basically split the middle here on what we just saw in the Conference Championship, and if you put any stock into what happened when these two met in the Super Bowl four years ago, that total hit 51.

Three of the last five Super Bowls have gone under this total, though Kansas City was just here last year in a game that saw 73 total points scored.

Our preference is to trust that this Chiefs defense is up for the challenge of slowing down San Francisco, only two teams have been more profitable towards the under this season than Kansas City's 70% under rate this year.

Our early lean: take Under 47.5 points