NFL 'Beat the Line' moves for Super Bowl LVIII

We created closing line value on both of our "Beat the Line" targets for Championship Sunday, but we unfortunately couldn't get to the window with either bet. That's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. 

We've still enjoyed a winning season on "Beat the Line," so let's close the year in style with two early bets for Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. 

2023-24 record: 32-13-8 CLV, 31-21-1 ATS 

Second half under 24.5 (-120 DraftKings)

We were interested in betting the Chiefs when the Super Bowl spread opened Kansas City +2.5, but it quickly got steamed to +1.5 and +1. The Chiefs would still be our bet if we had to pick a side, but the chance to create closing line value is likely gone. 

Instead, we're audibling to the second half under, which has quietly been the best bet in the NFL all season long. Kansas City is 18-2 to the second half under and 19-1 to the fourth quarter under this year. The game plan will be to jump on the 49ers early and trust their elite defense to hold the lead. It also helps that Kyle Shanahan is notoriously a conservative play-caller in big moments. 

This line is 23.5 everywhere else, so we're scooping up the under 24.5 while it's still around. 

Deebo Samuel over 71.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 DK)

This line is too low. Plain and simple.

Deebo Samuel played on an injured knee and racked up 96 rushing and receiving yards in the NFC Championship against the Detroit Lions. Now he has two weeks to rest and get fully healthy, so he should be operating at 100 percent in the Super Bowl.

Samuel is a unique weapon in today's NFL and the most explosive weapon on San Francisco's offense. Shanahan will draw up a few plays specifically to get him in the open field, and he might only need a handful of touches to clear this number. This line is as high as 78.5 at other books. It won't last at 71.5 for long.