Analyst Doubts the Chiefs' Division Hopes, Favors Rivals

Suddenly, the target on the back of the Chiefs has already surpassed bullseye status. Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert will shoot the arrows.

“I think the Chargers will win the AFC West,” said three-time Super Bowl winner Mark Schlereth on Friday’s edition of Breakfast Ball. “My Broncos fans will be angry, but they've built this team under Jim Harbaugh from the inside out.”

Chiefs fans will be angry, too. Kansas City has won nine straight division titles, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind New England’s 11-year streak from 2009-19. Patrick Mahomes is 35-5 in his career against the AFC West.

But if this is the year the Chiefs finally surrender the division title, they’re likely to blame a former Oregon quarterback, either Herbert or Denver’s Bo Nix. And don’t count out the Raiders in what figures to be the NFL’s toughest division.

“The Raiders have improved with Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, and they got the running back, Ashton Jeanty from Boise State,” said Schlereth, who also serves as a color commentator for FOX. “This division is as tough as it gets in football, and the Chiefs are going to be challenged.”

Challenging the Chiefs in the division doesn’t equate to challenging them in the playoffs. Even if one of those teams snaps Kansas City’s string of division titles, don’t doubt Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason.

11 wild card teams allowed another club to win their divisions and then advanced to the Super Bowl. Seven of those wild-card teams won the Super Bowl, including Tom Brady’s Buccaneers over the Chiefs in 2020. Schlereth’s Broncos in 1997 allowed the Chiefs to take the AFC West and then stunned everyone with a playoff run that finished by beating Brett Favre and the Packers in the Super Bowl.

The first of seven wild-card teams to win the Super Bowl was the 1980 Oakland Raiders, so the AFC West is used to putting its best foot forward after the regular season goes to bed. And in addition to the 2020 Buccaneers and 1997 Broncos, the 2000 Ravens, 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants and 2010 Packers also won Super Bowls without winning their divisions.

Overtaking the Chiefs in the AFC West is a familiar refrain, something Kansas City has heard every year. From Derek Carr to Russell Wilson, from Davante Adams to Von Miller, analysts have routinely produced reasons to pick against the Chiefs in their division.

But Kansas City has won three Super Bowls and played in five over the past six seasons. As Travis Kelce said this week, they don’t care about rings that commemorate AFC championships. Division titles are in the same category.

Only one type of ring will determine success in Kansas City this season. And whether someone else wears division-championship caps and T-shirts won’t affect that goal.

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