Analyst fires warning shot to fantasy managers who assume Lions' pecking order

Even with a change in coordinator this offseason, and a quarterback you can talk yourself into or out of in equal measure, the Detroit Lions' offense is lined up to remain an oasis of fantasy points in 2025.

Last year, the Lions had a top-10 fantasy quarterback (Goff), two top-20 running backs (Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery), two top 20-25 wide receivers (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, with allowance for scoring format) and a top-10 tight end (Sam LaPorta).

New offensive coordinator John Morton has made it clear he will not stray too far from what has been working, and the fact he was even hired to replace Ben Johnson confirmed that before he said so publicly.

That being said, there are players who may benefit more than others from the inevitable tweaks Morton makes as the Lions' play-caller.

Fantasy analyst warns managers who make assumption about Lions' target pecking order

ESPN fantasy analyst Eric Karabell recently did a list of 19 bold predictions for the 2025 fantasy football season, with the core premise of "don't be surprised if....."

The Lions' prediction was an eye-opener.

"Lions TE Sam LaPorta outscores WR Jameson Williams"

"LaPorta starred in his rookie season, but he spent the first half of Year 2 fighting for targets, mostly with the emerging deep threat Williams, while likely dealing with ankle and hamstring injuries. LaPorta had a big second half, earning six or more targets in each game after Week 10. These are two vastly different playmakers. Williams averaged 17.3 yards per catch, nearly doubling LaPorta's average, but the tight end is more reliable and more of a red zone target."

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As Karabell noted, LaPorta finished last season nicely after a slow start driven by nagging injuries. As ESPN's Mike Clay noted, his target share and fantasy points per game over his final 11 games (including the playoffs) align closely with those numbers during his rookie season (when he finished as the TE1).

Beneath the surface of Williams' breakthrough last season was some serious boom-or-bust. 43 of his 91 targets for the season came over a total of five games (Week 1-2, Week 16-18). While there's plenty of hype about him taking another step this year, some of the deeper numbers behind last year's production tilt toward unsustainable.

Williams averaged 3.2 more PPR points per game than LaPorta last season (LaPorta played one more game), and he scored 37.6 more total PPR points than LaPorta. So the idea a fully healthy LaPorta could score more fantasy points than Williams this year is not the stretch it might seem to be, and fantasy managers should take note.