Analyst Makes Jaguars Win Projections, Travis Hunter Stat Forecast

Sometimes, projecting NFL team performances in May seems like college-level advanced calculus. Well, throw in data, analytics and butterfly wings flapping in Nepal, and ESPN has produced a model that predicts the Jaguars will win seven games in 2025.

And while they’re projected to win seven, the Jaguars have at least a 50-percent chance of winning just four individual contests. Chalk up the difference to that mammoth Monarch with the big wings atop Mount Everest.

Mike Clay’s 2025 NFL Projection Guide is out, the analyst’s annual passion project after every schedule release.

Clay’s model shows four games in which the Jaguars have at least 50-percent win probability: The opener against Carolina, a Week 15 home game against Justin Fields and the Jets, and both AFC South tilts against the Titans – although the Week 13 trip to Nissan Stadium is exactly 50 percent. Maybe they’ll finish with a tie.

Clay also projects Travis Hunter will register 884 yards and five touchdowns on 73 catches, along with 25 tackles, 0.2 sacks and 0.6 interceptions on defense. Trevor Lawrence will pass for 3,774 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, Brian Thomas will lead the team in receptions (85), yards (1,177) and touchdown catches (six), while Tank Bigsby will narrowly lead Travis Etienne in rushing.

On defense, Clay projects a team-leading 2.6 interceptions from free agent Eric Murray, and 9.5 sacks from Travon Walker, 8.5 from Josh Hines-Allen and 3.7 from newcomer Emmanuel Ogbah.

In his position-group rankings, Clay listed the Jaguars’ off-ball linebackers, led by Foye Oluokun and Devin Lloyd, tied for third in the NFL. The Jacksonville edge rushers were tied for sixth.

However, he also ranked the team’s offensive line tied for last, and both its interior defensive line and tight ends tied for 26th. The running backs were tied for 22nd and quarterback was tied for 21st.

And if Clay’s win totals pan out, the Cleveland Browns will be ecstatic. That’s because Clay sees the Jaguars finishing with the No. 8 selection in the 2026 draft, the choice James Gladstone dealt to Cleveland last month to move up to No. 2 overall and select Hunter.

Clay is a senior fantasy expert for ESPN, so many of the projections are presented to help fantasy players prepare for their drafts.

Last year at this time, Clay projected 8.4 wins for the Jaguars in 2024 but they finished 4-13.

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