Analytics Show Area Both Atlanta Falcons Quarterbacks Must Improve

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Analytics Show Area Both Atlanta Falcons Quarterbacks Must Improve

Originally posted on Atlanta Falcons on SI
By Scott Kennedy | Last updated Jul 21, 2026 7:21 PM ET

The Atlanta Falcons have one of the true quarterback competitions in the NFL this summer as they get ready to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on September 13th.

The Atlanta coaching staff has indicated that the competition can't begin in earnest until Michael Penix is cleared to be a full participant at training camp. That doesn't mean some self-scouting isn't going on with Penix and Tua Tagovailoa, who joined the Falcons after being released by the Miami Dolphins following his worst season as a pro.

One metric from 2025 that must be addressed by both players is putting the ball in harm's way.

What a minute, you say. "Penix's 2.9% interception rate was best in the league, while Tagovailoa's 3.9% was the NFL's worst and a 50% increase on his second-worst season."

And you'd be correct. Penix threw just three interceptions last season, while Tagovailoa posted a career-worst 15.

However, the rate in which Penix had a turnover-worthy throw was the fifth-highest in the NFL, according to Data nflverse.

Not great. pic.twitter.com/OdU6mpKxW8
— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) July 21, 2026

In the chart above, it's clear that Tagovailoa was reckless with the ball, and defenses made him pay. While Penix got away with more bad throws.

So Penix might rather be lucky than good, but what's concerning about Penix is that former offensive coordinator Zac Robinson had training wheels on his quarterback. Through the first three weeks of 2025, Penix didn't have a single completion that traveled more than 16 air yards, according to NextGen Stats.

The gunslinger that the Falcons drafted No. 8 overall in 2024 and showed big-play flashes in his three-game cameo to end his rookie season was turned into a dink-and-dunk game manager by Robinson.

Penix was putting the ball in risky areas without the payoff.

In nine starts, he had just nine touchdown passes, and only one of them was outside the red zone, a Week 1 50-yard screen pass to Robinson on the third play of the season.

His 1/1 start-to-touchdown ratio was second worst in the NFL among players who had at least nine starts, finishing ahead of only rookie Cam Ward and just behind the Saints' Tyler Shough and former Falcon Marcus Mariota.

Falcons fans don't need any more reasons to be glad Robinson is out of Atlanta, but read that last sentence again. Less productive than Mariota.

That said, it makes sense that Penix might be sandwiched between a pair of rookies, considering he was a first-year starter himself. Classmates Drake Maye (3rd), Caleb Williams (9th), and Bo Nix (16th) fared better, while J.J. McCarthy finished just ahead of him (25th) in what was also his first season as a starter. Jayden Daniels had eight touchdowns in seven starts and added two on the ground in an injury-shortened season.

Tagovailoa's 20 touchdowns in 14 starts wasn't a lot better. His 1.43 ratio was 20th, and his 15 interceptions were exponentially worse.

The Falcons finished with just 19 passing touchdowns last season, tied with the Saints for 27th in the NFL. They'll be conducting a battle this preseason between two quarterbacks who had a bad habit of throwing high-risk, low-reward passes in 2025.

Regardless of who wins the quarterback job in 2026, both players need to improve on putting the ball in the end zone and keeping it out of harm's way.