Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) gets pass protection from Buffalo Bills guard O'Cyrus Torrence (64) and Buffalo Bills guard Connor McGovern (66). Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Analytics show Bills benefit from playing in weak AFC East

Originally posted on Buffalo Bills on SI | By Khari Demos | Last updated May 8, 2025 8:28 PM ET

There’s no denying the Buffalo Bills have been one of the best teams in the NFL in the first half of this decade. But playing in the AFC East has also helped them too.

In a recent post on X, NFL analyst Warren Sharp shared what divisions in the league have been the best and worst since 2020. The unique piece of note here is that he used winning percentage for all non-divisional matchups in that span to measure the strength of divisions.

With an overall record of 106-109 (.493 winning percentage), the AFC East ranked sixth out of all eight NFL divisions, only surpassing the NFC South (.417) and AFC South (.361).

best division in the NFL

(win % in non-division games since 2020)

60.0% (128-85) - AFC North

55.1% (119-97) - AFC West
53.9% (116-99) - NFC North
53.7% (116-100) - NFC West
50.2% (108-107) - NFC East
49.3% (106-109) - AFC East

41.7% (90-126) - NFC…
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 7, 2025

The Bills have been the kings of the division as of late, winning five consecutive AFC East titles. But it has also helped that they have not had the stiffest of competition in their division.

Since 2020, there have only been three instances where teams outside of Buffalo have made the playoffs from the division — the Patriots in 2021, and the Dolphins in both 2022 and 2023. The Bills matched up with their divisional rivals in two of those three playoff runs, with the 2021 Wild Card beatdown of New England and a win over Miami in the 2022 Wild Card.

It helps having a stud quarterback like Josh Allen also, who has been a three-time Pro Bowler, two-time second-team All-Pro, and 2024 league MVP since 2020. Meanwhile, the Patriots have struggled to replace Tom Brady, the Dolphins have seen up-and-down health from Tua Tagovailoa, and the Jets (woof), have been the Jets, missing the playoffs each year since the 2010 season.

It's okay to acknowledge that the AFC East has been weak during the 2020s, just like it was during New England's dynasty with Brady and Bill Belichick. Hopefully, Allen and company can take advantage of it like Brady did and help Buffalo win its first Super Bowl.