Beware a 1st-Round Running Back a Bad Decision

1st Round Running Backs Seldom Win Super Bowls

Over the last decade, the NFL has seen a dynasty and unlikely Super Bowl-winning teams.

One thing most of these teams have in common is that they have no drafted first-round running backs.

The following list focuses on the player who was the primary starting running back, typically the one with the most carries or snaps in the game or season.

The list will cover Super Bowls 50 through 59, identifying each team’s starting running back and their draft status.

1. Super Bowl 50 (2015): Denver Broncos
   • Starting Running Back: C.J. Anderson
   • Draft Status: Undrafted (2013)
   • Details: Anderson was the clear starter, leading with 23 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl. No first-round running back.
2. Super Bowl 51 (2016): New England Patriots
   • Starting Running Back: LeGarrette Blount
   • Draft Status: Undrafted (2010)
   • Details: Blount was the primary starter, leading the team in carries during the season (299 carries, 1,161 yards) and 31 yards in the Super Bowl.
   • James White contributed as a receiving back. No first-round running back.
3. Super Bowl 52 (2017): Philadelphia Eagles
   • Starting Running Back: LeGarrette Blount
   • Draft Status: Undrafted (2010)
   • Details: The Eagles used a committee, but Blount was the nominal starter, leading with 14 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
   • Jay Ajayi (5th-round) and Corey Clement (undrafted) split carries, but Blount was the primary back. No first-round running back.
4. Super Bowl 53 (2018): New England Patriots
   • Starting Running Back: Sony Michel
   • Draft Status: 1st-round (31st overall, 2018)
   • Details: Michel, a rookie, was the starting running back, leading with 18 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
   • Michel was also the primary rusher for the season (209 carries for 931 yards). Counts as a first-round starting running back.
5. Super Bowl 54 (2019): Kansas City Chiefs
   • Starting Running Back: Damien Williams
   • Draft Status: Undrafted (2014)
   • Details: Williams emerged as the starter late in the season and the playoffs. Led the team with 17 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl. No first-round running back.
6. Super Bowl 55 (2020): Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   • Starting Running Back: Leonard Fournette
   • Draft Status: 1st-round (4th overall, 2017)
   • Details: Fournette was the starting running back in the playoffs, leading with 16 carries for 89 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl.
   • Fournette took over as the primary back from Ronald Jones II (2nd-round) during the postseason. Counts as a first-round starting running back.
7. Super Bowl 56 (2021): Los Angeles Rams
   • Starting Running Back: Cam Akers
   • Draft Status: 2nd-round (52nd overall, 2020)
   • Details: Akers was the starting running back after returning from injury, leading the team with 13 carries for 21 yards in the Super Bowl.
   • Sony Michel (1st-round, 2018) was the backup with minimal carries. Since Akers was the starter, no first-round running back counts here.
8. Super Bowl 57 (2022): Kansas City Chiefs
   • Starting Running Back: Isiah Pacheco
   • Draft Status: 7th-round (251st overall, 2022)
   • Details: Pacheco was the starting running back as a rookie, leading with 15 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl. No first-round running back.
9. Super Bowl 58 (2023) Kansas City Chiefs
   • Starting Running Back: Isiah Pacheco
   • Draft Status: 7th-round (251st overall, 2022)
   • Details: Pacheco remained the starter, leading with 18 carries for 59 yards in the Super Bowl. No first-round running back.
10. Super Bowl 59 (2024) Philadelphia Eagles
    • Starting Running Back: Saquon Barkley
    • Draft Status: 1st-round (2nd overall, 2018)
    • Details: Barkley was the Eagles’ starting running back, leading the team in carries throughout the season and the Super Bowl. Counts as a first-round starting running back.

Three first-round running backs have won a Super Bowl over the last ten years. This is not promising for the Cowboys, their fans, or analysts who think they need to move in this direction.

Recency Bias for Fans and Teams

Recency bias is when we start to think that recent experiences or the latest info we have are way more important than they are when we’re trying to guess what might happen in the future.

This can trick us into believing that what just happened is a good indicator of how things will go later on, like the Eagles winning a Super Bowl with Saquon Barkley.

The Cowboys need to look into other positions that can help them sooner and for a longer period of time.

Most running backs have a shelf life of about 5–7 years, after which production declines.

If a running back is on the need list, trade for an established running back, not a first-round pick whose NFL production may not meet their college production.