Jan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) dives for a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Bills' offense predicted to suffer James Cook-related regression

Originally posted on Buffalo Bills on SI
By Ralph Ventre | Last updated Jun 20, 2025 11:39 AM ET

The Buffalo Bills became the first NFL offense ever to score at least 30 rushing touchdowns and 30 passing touchdowns in the same regular season.

Although all key components from the league's second-ranked scoring offense return for the Bills in 2025, it won't be easy to repeat such a feat and the team's touchdown distribution is bound to shift in some way due to multiple unknown variables.

In particular, there's one Bills' player who is seen as most vulnerable to a potential scoring drop off. Identifying "20 Fantasy Football Stars Destined for Stat Regression in 2025," Sports Illustrated senior analyst Michael Fabiano listed running back James Cook and his 18 total touchdowns from 2024.

In addition to Cook, Fabiano also predicted regressions for "Jayden Daniels’ 891 rushing yards" and "Lamar Jackson’s 430.4 fantasy points" amongst others.

Cook tied for AFC lead with Baltimore Ravens' All-Pro running back Derrick Henry in total touchdowns while his 16 TD rushes tied the late OJ Simpson's single-season franchise record.

"Cook is coming off a magical season in terms of end zone visits, scoring 18 times. He scored just nine combined touchdowns in his first two seasons, so this was a major uptick … and it’s likely to come with some regression in 2025. Cook is also looking at a potential holdout over a contract dispute, which has not been a good situation for many players in the past. Keep tabs on Cook’s status." — Michael Fabiano

Although both Cook and the Bills' offense are both likely to remain effective in 2025, it's hard to contest Fabiano's TD regression projection.

Of Cook's 16 rushing scores, five came from the 2-yard line or closer and a sixth was from 3 yards out. Any of those six could have likely as easily went to quarterback Josh Allen, who is tied for first on the franchise list for career rushing TDs.

Cook's yardage total and number of touches actually slipped from 2023 to 2024. He gained 300 fewer yards on 42 fewer touches.

It's also imperative to consider that the RB1 also only plays about 50 percent of offensive snaps, and his share isn't likely to grow with Buffalo still having Ray Davis and Ty Johnson on board.

The odds for a third consecutive 1,000-yard rushing campaign are in Cook's favor, but another record-tying TD total doesn't appear likely.