Bills vs. Patriots Game Preview: Top storyline, odds, player to watch & prediction

What’s Vegas Saying?

The Bills opened the week as 9.5-point favorites, per FanDuel. But the point spread has dropped to 8.5 points as of Friday afternoon. Buffalo is 2-2 against the spread this season, failing to cover the past two weeks in wins over the Saints (+15.5) and Miami Dolphins (+11.5). The Bills covered as 6.5-point favorites against the New York Jets in Week 2 and as 1.5-point underdogs in a Week 1 matchup vs. the Baltimore Ravens.

Weather Report

Bills' fans have been treated to beautiful weather throughout the team's first three home games of the season, and that trend will continue on Sunday when the Patriots come to town. Temperatures are expected to be around 65 degrees at kickoff, while the game-day forecast calls for light winds of under 10 mph and no precipitation. It will be another picturesque afternoon and evening for tailgaters in Orchard Park.

Bills' Injuries

Buffalo will be without two defensive contributors on Sunday against the Patriots, with linebacker Dorian Williams and cornerback Dorian Strong both declared out on Friday, per the team’s official injury report. 

Williams sustained a knee injury during the Bills’ Week 4 win over the Saints and was replaced by LB Shaq Thompson late in the game. Williams has filled in for starting LB Matt Milano the past two weeks while Milano has been out due to a pectoral injury, recording 12 tackles in wins over the Dolphins and Saints.

Strong began the season as a starter opposite the team’s top cornerback, Christian Benford, while Tre’Davious White was out due to an ankle injury. White has since reassumed his starting role, leaving Strong as a reserve the past three weeks. With that said, he was rotated in defensively this past week against the Saints, playing 15 snaps and recording four tackles.

Milano, along with two other Bills players dealing with injuries — defensive tackle Ed Oliver and offensive lineman Spencer Brown — all practiced throughout the week and are questionable to play against the Patriots. Oliver has been out since he sustained an ankle injury leading into Buffalo’s Week 2 matchup with the Jets, while Milano has been out since he was injured midway through the win over New York. Brown missed this past week’s game against the Saints due to a calf injury.

Rookie DT T.J. Sanders was added to the injury report on Thursday with a knee injury. He was limited during the Bills’ final two practices of the week and is questionable to play on Sunday. Sanders has seen his role increase over the past three weeks due to Oliver’s absence, playing 49% or more of the team’s defensive snaps the past three weeks after being on the field just 31% of the time in Week 1.

Neither edge rusher Joey Bosa (vet rest) nor tight end Jackson Hawes (ankle) was provided an injury designation after both were limited in practice to start the week due to their respective injuries.

Patriots' Injuries

Alarm bells sounded in New England on Thursday when stalwart DT Milton Williams missed practice due to an ankle injury. But he returned as a limited participant on Friday and has been deemed questionable to play on Sunday, along with three other Patriots defenders. Starting linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson (knee), along with cornerback Carlton Davis III (illness) and LB Jahlani Tavai (calf), are also questionable, per the team’s official injury report.

Williams has been one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL over the first four weeks of the year, recording a pass rush win rate of 19%, which is second in the NFL among defensive tackles. Chaisson has played 68% of the Patriots’ defensive snaps this season, recording nine tackles, three tackles for loss, and five quarterback hits through four games.

Coaching Matchup

A familiar face will return to Buffalo for the sixth time in his head-coaching career, as former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel is in his first season leading the team for which he played during eight years of his 14-year playing career. Vrabel is the former head coach of the Tennessee Titans, having finished 2-3 against the Bills in five games at the helm in Tennessee. Vrabel is 58-50, including playoffs, in his career as head coach.

Sean McDermott improved his career record to 97-52, including playoffs, with a win over the Saints in Week 4. His career winning percentage of 0.651 ranks fourth among active NFL head coaches.

Top Storyline

After the Patriots dominated this rivalry for two decades, the script has flipped in recent seasons. From Week 16 of the 2000 season through the 2019 campaign, New England won 35 of 39 games against the Bills. However, since the 2020 season, Buffalo is 8-3 vs. the Patriots.

This weekend’s matchup will hold plenty of meaning for both teams, with a win for the Bills strengthening their position atop the AFC East standings, while a win for the Patriots would bring them, figuratively, within a half-game of Buffalo’s division lead. With a new head coach and a second-year quarterback in tow, New England is hoping this week’s game can serve as a turning point in its hopeful ascension within the divisional ranks. Conversely, the Bills will be looking to maintain dominance over a team that once dominated them for so long.

In addition, Sunday's game will feature the return of former Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the stadium he called home for four seasons. There is sure to be plenty of energy inside Highmark Stadium on Sunday night.

A rivalry renewed with plenty on the line in primetime. It doesn’t get any better than this.

Player To Watch

This week’s game features an exciting quarterback matchup, with Buffalo’s Josh Allen set to duel it out with Patriots QB Drake Maye, a player who has drawn comparisons to Allen throughout his young career.

Maye has been extremely efficient this season, particularly in crunch time. The New England signal caller has completed 88.2% of his passes for 9.9 yards per pass attempt and a 133.3 passer rating on third and fourth down this season, all of which are first among NFL QBs, per Pro Football Focus.

The Buffalo defense has allowed its first four opponents this season to convert 42% of their third-down opportunities, which is seventh-worst in the NFL. The Bills must be better defensively on third down on Sunday if they hope to limit Maye’s impact and walk away with a win over the Patriots.

Prediction — Bills 24, Patriots 21

I’m expecting this to be a closer game than the spread indicates.

The Buffalo offense has been electric through the first four weeks of the year, scoring 33.3 points per game, which is the second-best mark in the NFL. However, while dealing with a few injuries to significant contributors, the defense has left plenty to be desired.

Still, gimme the Bills to win this one, albeit by a small margin. James Cook will struggle to get going against the league’s second-best rushing defense (77.5 YPG), but Allen will find Khalil Shakir early and often to help spark the Buffalo offense to victory.

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