One of the biggest surprises of the 2024-2025 NFL season was the emergence of Bo Nix. It wasn’t like he was lighting up defenses on day one, but as the season went along, he started to gain more yardage and earn more touchdowns. In his second year out of Oregon, Nix has been reaching the top ten of many a quarterback tier list nowadays. Should he be drafted like a QB1, or should drafters wait on Nix?
A lot of analysts point to the slow start for Bo Nix, who didn’t score more than 20 fantasy points until Week 5 of the season. He finished the season extremely strong, scoring 21, 21.9, and 33.5 fantasy points in the last three games, respectively. A big reason for his late-season surge was his ability to get into the endzone; Nix threw 29 touchdowns on the season and ran for four more.
A closer look at the numbers shows that Nix excelled against the bottom half of defenses but struggled against the better defenses in the league. Against the Jets, Nix could only throw for 60 yards. Nix threw two interceptions to zero touchdowns against the Steelers’ defense and threw another two interceptions to the Browns’ defense. Basically, Nix played well in positive game scripts, but couldn’t really perform when he was pressured by good defensive play.
The good thing for Nix is that he is being ranked very well. Fantasy Pros currently has him as the ninth quarterback ranked, ahead of the likes of Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, and Drake Maye. Drafting him as a QB1, though, might be a little risky. A QB1 needs to perform well in every game he plays in. Since Nix only does well in good game scripts, he might be better as a QB2 that someone can plug in and play if Nix is playing a weak team.
Nix should be projected to score big for around seven games of the season, but there are plenty of other quarterbacks with more upside. In general, with quarterbacks, fantasy players should be looking to take one of the top seven guys, as the output drops off after that. As for the Broncos, they signed J.K. Dobbins and drafted R.J. Harvey in the offseason, so don’t be surprised if Denver runs the ball more.
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