Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Brian Burns' 2024 free agency contract projection

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Josh Queipo | Last updated Jan 11, 2024 10:42 AM ET

The NFL's regular season is over, which for most teams, means it's time to start figuring out plans for the offseason.

NFL free agency is a huge part of the process, and along with the NFL Draft, it has everyone preparing for what should be a very active couple of months.

We've officially come up with our own contract projections for the NFL's top free agents that include context behind each player's 2023 season, the likelihood of a franchise tag, the projection itself, and the first-year cap hit for a team that's “all-in” and is needing to reduce that first-year hit in order to maximize their cap dollars.

So, without further ado, let's check out the projection for Carolina Panthers pass rusher, Brian Burns.

Brian Burns 2024 Contract Projection

Feature image via Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Burns has never broken through the ceiling to really establish himself as a premier pass rusher in the NFL. This is in part due to him only having one season with 10+ sacks (a 12.5 sack campaign in 2022). It’s also because he has never cracked 70 pressures in a season. His pressure rate has been more in-line with Bradley Chubb and Trey Hendrickson prior to their long-term deals, as well.

Still, Carolina has shown they value Burns more in-line with players like Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt, as they reportedly turned down two first round picks from the Los Angeles Rams at the trade deadline in 2022. That valuation will aid Burns in negotiations with Carolina, as they will want to ensure they recoup value for their decision to turn down such a lucrative package.

Those negotiations will likely be deferred for at least one year as the Panthers are sure to tag Burns. This guarantees the 2024 season while they work towards a long-term deal. Said deal will likely have an APY that aligns with 9-9.5% of the signing team’s salary cap, at the time of signing.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: High
4 years $90 million, $22.5M APY, $60M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $7.5 million

Be sure to check back in and around the site for more projections, as we will add more in the coming days and weeks.

This article first appeared on A to Z Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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